Champions League Final (137-70-9 YTD)

- Over/Under : I personally prefer the under, here are my reasons: I watched all the games between the two this season, they are as intense as could be. Both teams know each other (especially the style of playing) perfectly. I am not going to include the last Bundesliga matchup because that was not a deadserious game for the two of them. I think the DFB-Cup game is a good reference for this one. Bayern clearly dominated, they have taken a giant step forwards in this season and are not comparable to the Bayern of last year. Although they were better, Dortmund still managed to avoid them having a lot of chances while in turn failing to create a lot of chances themselves (please somebody correct me if I'm wrong because I don't remember everything). If a team leads by 1-0 (which to me will be Bayern), their main focus will be solely on maintaining the score, I think the second goal would be scored at the very end of the game when it comes down to all or nothing. All 3 games between these two have gone under this year. I know that in history 55% of all CL finals have gone over, but I don't trust into historical stats like these and paying this amount of juice for the over is too much in my regard. Both teams have been focused on this game for weeks and the common result when both teams know each other very will is the under. Final Score predictions would range from 1-0 or 2-0 Bayern to a draw (1-1 possibly). So I am likely to place a bet on the under 2.5. If I had to give you a piece of advice I would rather advise you to play B2S than the over - but then again its just my personal opinion.

- Winner: Bayern. First of all, this is neither my favourite club nor even close to being so, I personally prefer Dortmund and would be happy if they win but I just don't see it happen. Although I don't really like them, I have nothing but pure admiration for the way Bayern has managed itself over the decades, financially they are doing better then great (think they hit the break-even point something like 3 months ago and are just making profit and profit - this shows what they can do in the future). But let's stay in the present, Bayern has suffered enormously from Dortmund's last two years. Whether the season will be rated a success or not depends solely on the Champions League, the "double" will be worthless to them if they don't get the title, that's how eager they are to win this thing. Players like Thomas Müller have been in the CL Final for the third time now, they surely don't want to lose a third time. After the loss last year, Müller sent a SMS to every single player expressing how determined they all should be to win it this year, and haven't they been? You don't destroy Barca by accident..
Dortmund in my view is the only team this year that can be a little "threat" but overall they are not good enough to win it. I doubt Götze will have an outstanding game as he is in a very difficult spot (he is transfering to Bayern the next year). They lack the players that have the experience of being in a cup final. For example Hummels, he is a great defender but still seems to fall under the pressure when it really matters (e.g. the awful mistake against Real Madrid, it was also to a certain extent his fault that Balotelli scored in the European Cup). They have long reached their goal and state themselves that the final is only a "bonus" - of course they still want to win but overall - when it counts - they will fall to Bayern just like they did in the German Cup. 

To Neuer: I like your observation, it is true that Neuer still makes some errors every now and then, but my personal observation is that these errors seem to occur in games that are somewhat meaningless (trust me, he cost me quite some money on games against Hannover (5-1 -> I had Hannover not to score) or Kazakhstan (3-1-> I had KAZ not to score). But I think he will be as determined as all the other Bayern "machines". 

I know a lot of players like "prop bets", maybe I have something for you here. It should be noted that I never bet goalscorers because I think the odds are usually way to low - but if I had to pick somebody to score it would be Müller. This guy is everywhere, I observed every move of him for 20 straight minutes when Bayern played against Werder Bremen and I was in the stadium, he is switching sides like he has two lungs and simply is everywhere. Furthermore, he is kind of the guy that scores the "big goals" - e.g. the goal in last year's final. Maybe it is worth taking a garbage on him, but probably not. 

I will surely play the Over/Under throw-ins. Have done this for every single game since the first Barca/Bayern semifinal (I had under there and learned my lesson) and will do it again this time. I know both teams can control the ball pretty well, but the more intense a game is the more throw-ins there are and Dortmund's players are not on the level as Bayern's - they will rather clear the ball into the night sky than risk losing it while trying to play it out. Every line up to 42 should be a no brainer in my opinion. 

Overall, these are my guesses (no actual plays yet)

- Bayern wins the title
- Under 2.5
- Over throw-ins

I too have watched all games played between these two teams and see no reason to consider the under 2.5. The most recent game at Dortmund, which ended 1 - 1, was done so without many key players for both teams. This game will see Dortmund play with a key defender in questionable form ( Hummels ). He attempted to get match fit in a game this past weekend, which showed that he is far from 100percent. Bayern on the other hand, made some early blunders to allow 3 goals in the first 10 minutes. Yup, they rallied, and dominated the remainder of the game scoring 4, to win 4 - 3.  Bayern have had the luxury of depth on their squad this season, and come into this game, rested and in top form. I have no problem seeing them net 3 on their own. 

Bayern win @ 1.70

Over 2.5 @ 1.75

Bayern have been on a mission all year to win every trophy available this year. I see them winning the last 2 to make it 4 on the year. The league title, German Super Cup ( 2 - 1 over Dortmund ).....Ch League and German Cup to go. Don't bet against it. PROBSTPROBST

Again, as I mentioned in my earlier comments, Dortmund's defence isn't exactly healthy right now. And, yes, this years Bayern team do play attack football. I can see a 3 to 1 or 4 to 2 type win for Bayern. I fully expect them to cover the Over 2.5 on their own.