EUROPA LEAGUE FINAL O/U PLAY AND ANALYSIS

Benfica v Chelsea over 2/2.5 (2.25) -111 to win 2 units

This play was locked in last night and tweeted out to my followers.

I think this line will continue to go up as kick off approached.  Finals are made to be won, not defended and in Chelsea this season we have a team that has not taken the defensive route in any of their tournaments instead choosing to seek out that all important first goal.  Believe me, in a one game scenario an early goal can make all the difference and we usually see late thursts and odd manned counter attacks late as any team behind chases an important goal.  This is why you often see these types of game turn into lopsided victories by the 90th minute  Now, I'm not saying this will be the case here because all my models except for 1 make this game a 2-1 final.  Two make it 2-1 Chelsea, one makes it 2-1 Benfica and the 4th a 2-2 final.  This is why I AM NOT taking a side although my lean would be to Chelsea.

Chelsea has played the most football of any European club this year and fatigue might be a factor.

John Terry and Eden Hazard are unavailable due to injury for Chelsea and  Frank Lampard may drop to the bench but offers a great goal scoring option off the bench if that is where Benitez chooses to start him.  Despite this, Chelsea has shown the ability to score plenty of goals this year and I don’t see why that would change against a team like Benfica who likes to play open football. 

Chelsea have scored at least 2 goals in their last 5 Europa League games and know how to win big tournaments.  Remember they are reigning UCL Champions.   In large part to their 2 goals per game over their last 5 Europa League games, the over 2.5 has gone 5-0 in that span.  3 of those games saw them score 3 goals. 

Benfica is the highest scoring team in Portugal, scoring 74 goals in their 29 games played for an average of 2.55 goals per game.  Now given that this game is in Amsterdam in a neutral park, how did they do on the road?  Just as well, scoring the most goals on the road in the Portuguese league, 35 in 15 games for an average of over 2 per game. 

They have one of the best defences in Portugal though however, when one looks at how far back the other teams are in offensive output, it can be argued between FC Porto and Benfica, everyone else is average.  Teams with great offences, when playing against each other, no matter how good they are at the back, find ways to score.  Look no further than this weekend's domestic league fixture for Benifica, a 2-1 loss to Porto, the new domestic leaders.

They will be facing one of the toughest opponents of the year and one who knows how to score. For Benfica Oscar Cardozo has scored five goals in his last five Europa League games, and has 16 goals in 20 games on the domestic front.  He’s the man Chelsea needs to stop. Maxi Pereira is out at left back and Benfica will miss his runs but I think they have enough to allow them to still create chances.

Chelsea has scored the second most goals in the EPL with 73 scored in 37 games so you can see Benfica scored more in 8 fewer games. Cheslea is also 2nd in most road goals scored in the EPL with 34 scored in 19 games.  

Fernando Torres who seems to prefer the European stage has 5 goals in Chelseas’s 8 EL games while Ocar and Matta have 6 assists each.   David Luiz and Ramires who used to play for Benfica are exceptionally creative in the midfield and should trouble their former club.  In their last 8 overall games Chelsea has scored 17 goals so they enter the game in great offensive form.  Keep in mind they have failed to score only 1 time in their last 20 games in all competitions.