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#1
I think when the smoke clears you're going to have a log jam at 41 with Southampton and Aston Villa stuck on 40. Villa is way behind the Saints on goal differential.
I still see Wigan pulling their patented great escape by winning today and on the final day by taking their home match with Villa, putting them at 41.
Newcastle should find their form for only 5 minutes, which should be long enough against QPR to keep them up for next season at 41.
Norwich will take care of West Brom at home next week because they have to. However, if they don't, they will finish at 38 or 39 and will be relegated instead of Villa. So this next match for Norwich is for all intents and purposes, their do or die.
Sunderland will beat the Saints next week, carrying them to safety at 41
That leaves us with the Saints and Villa:
Southampton will lose at Sunderland, but pull out a draw at home against Stoke on the final day, carrying them to 40.
Villa, currently on 40 have Chelsea at home and then travel to the DW on the final day to face Wigan. I don't think they earn a point from either match. That leaves them at 40, with a much worse goal differential than Southampton.
So, to me, if Villa want to stay up next year they need to find a way to get a point at Villa Park next week against Chelsea. They do that and I see Southampton being relegated. They fail to and I think they're heading down.
Either way, the last day of the season, not only will Villa/Wigan be a match to save off relegation, but so will Southampton/Stoke. Stoke, currently sitting on 41 points, still may need to earn a point at home against Spurs to feel completely safe heading into St. Mary's. If Stoke lose their final 2 matches there's a chance they drop instead of Villa.
Also a very good chance that Fulham will need to earn at least one point at Swansea on the last day. They currently sit at 40 and host Liverpool next week, before heading out to Wales.
Insane season in that the magical 40 point mark doesn't seem to be enough.
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