I know I've asked about Serie A matches and why the draw odds are so low last week. But those matches involved teams that were safe from relegation.
This week, Genoa v Torino, the draw is -150. But what doesn't make sense is that both teams are very close to being relegated. With 3 matches left Genoa is 3 points away from relegation, while Torino is 4 points away.
It seems that a win would help either side immensely avoid relegation. So why wouldn't both teams try to win badly? Why is the draw line still so low against 2 teams that need to win.
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I know I've asked about Serie A matches and why the draw odds are so low last week. But those matches involved teams that were safe from relegation.
This week, Genoa v Torino, the draw is -150. But what doesn't make sense is that both teams are very close to being relegated. With 3 matches left Genoa is 3 points away from relegation, while Torino is 4 points away.
It seems that a win would help either side immensely avoid relegation. So why wouldn't both teams try to win badly? Why is the draw line still so low against 2 teams that need to win.
a draw would be just fine for both teams...both siena and palermo have tough matchups over the final 3 games, unlikely that either 1 of those times climbs out of the relegation zone
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a draw would be just fine for both teams...both siena and palermo have tough matchups over the final 3 games, unlikely that either 1 of those times climbs out of the relegation zone
Siena is done...have been since they gave up a 2-0 lead to Pescara... Palermo still have some quality and fight in them...their schedule is decent with 2 some what winnable home games...Udinese have lost 7 away matches and Parma are out of form.... their away match against Fiorentina will be tough...but points can be stolen with how frequent Fiorentina concede goals...(1 goal per game avg at home)
Genoa have the easier matchups (team wise)...playing Torino, Inter, and Bologna...but unfortunately for them two of them are on the road. They have a 3-5-9 away record...so nothing should come easy to them.
I can understand the stance that bookmakers are taking in the Torino vs Genoa fixture... A draw for either side would not be destructive to their qualifying chances...so a point a piece seems acceptable...Looking at form...on paper it seems Genoa have more of it at the moment...seemingly killing off home advantage...leading to a greater chance of a draw.
No value for me on the draw...but a home win has got me intrigued.(+200ish) Torino have played tougher opponents lately compared to Genoa...
Whatever you decide.
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Siena is done...have been since they gave up a 2-0 lead to Pescara... Palermo still have some quality and fight in them...their schedule is decent with 2 some what winnable home games...Udinese have lost 7 away matches and Parma are out of form.... their away match against Fiorentina will be tough...but points can be stolen with how frequent Fiorentina concede goals...(1 goal per game avg at home)
Genoa have the easier matchups (team wise)...playing Torino, Inter, and Bologna...but unfortunately for them two of them are on the road. They have a 3-5-9 away record...so nothing should come easy to them.
I can understand the stance that bookmakers are taking in the Torino vs Genoa fixture... A draw for either side would not be destructive to their qualifying chances...so a point a piece seems acceptable...Looking at form...on paper it seems Genoa have more of it at the moment...seemingly killing off home advantage...leading to a greater chance of a draw.
No value for me on the draw...but a home win has got me intrigued.(+200ish) Torino have played tougher opponents lately compared to Genoa...
IMO, a draw is likely when both teams think that a loss is horrible compared to a draw result. But Genoa has 35 points and 3 points ahead of relegation and Torino have 36 points (4 pts ahead).
A draw would put Genoa 4 points ahead and Torino 5 points ahead of Palermo. In the unlikely event Palermo beats Udinese, then Genoa would only be 1 point ahead and Torino would be 2 points ahead.
Under those circumstances, why would Genoa and Torino play conservative rather than trying to win the game?
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IMO, a draw is likely when both teams think that a loss is horrible compared to a draw result. But Genoa has 35 points and 3 points ahead of relegation and Torino have 36 points (4 pts ahead).
A draw would put Genoa 4 points ahead and Torino 5 points ahead of Palermo. In the unlikely event Palermo beats Udinese, then Genoa would only be 1 point ahead and Torino would be 2 points ahead.
Under those circumstances, why would Genoa and Torino play conservative rather than trying to win the game?
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Whatever you decide.
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