If you are going to wager a Lazio game to go over the total then you want to do so when they are playing at home like this afternoon. They have scored 19 goals in 9 home games vs. 8 goals scored on the road in the same amount of games. They have allowed 8 home goals in those 9 games.
As for Cagliari, only Pescara has allowed more serie A goals this season (35) after 18 games. Cagliary has allowed 33 and has allowed 3 of thier last 4 opponentson the road to score 4 goals (Fiortentian, Udinese and Parma). They have allowed 2 or more goals in their last 4 games overall.
Calgiari needs the 3 points as they are now in a relegation battle. Sitting in 17th place at 16 points, they are well aware of the fact that only 5 points seperate them from 12th place Chievo and 5 points from bottom dwellers Siena. Siena plays Milan this week and many other relegation teams have big games so while I don't expect Cagliari to win this, I do expect them to go for the full 3 points to try to get something out of this match. This will leave an already wee defensive squad vulnerable against Lazio who will want to stay in the hunt for the league title (8 points back and tied for second with Napoli at 36 points)
Statistically, the averages point to the most probable scoring outcome in this game being Lazio 2:1 Cagliari. My projection models make Lazio a 3-0 winniner in 3 of the 4 models and 2-1 winner in the 4th so I have projection models that coincide with statistical validation. This is always a good thing when picking a play.
OVER 2.5 goals is the play.
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Covers Posted Soccer: 67-43 +49.26 units
Lazio v Cagliari over 2.5 -105 to win 2 units
If you are going to wager a Lazio game to go over the total then you want to do so when they are playing at home like this afternoon. They have scored 19 goals in 9 home games vs. 8 goals scored on the road in the same amount of games. They have allowed 8 home goals in those 9 games.
As for Cagliari, only Pescara has allowed more serie A goals this season (35) after 18 games. Cagliary has allowed 33 and has allowed 3 of thier last 4 opponentson the road to score 4 goals (Fiortentian, Udinese and Parma). They have allowed 2 or more goals in their last 4 games overall.
Calgiari needs the 3 points as they are now in a relegation battle. Sitting in 17th place at 16 points, they are well aware of the fact that only 5 points seperate them from 12th place Chievo and 5 points from bottom dwellers Siena. Siena plays Milan this week and many other relegation teams have big games so while I don't expect Cagliari to win this, I do expect them to go for the full 3 points to try to get something out of this match. This will leave an already wee defensive squad vulnerable against Lazio who will want to stay in the hunt for the league title (8 points back and tied for second with Napoli at 36 points)
Statistically, the averages point to the most probable scoring outcome in this game being Lazio 2:1 Cagliari. My projection models make Lazio a 3-0 winniner in 3 of the 4 models and 2-1 winner in the 4th so I have projection models that coincide with statistical validation. This is always a good thing when picking a play.
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