2. Manchester United v Wigan over 3 +105 2 units
Something of a rarity occurred the last time Manchester United played. They actually managed to keep a clean sheet, something that has been somewhat of a rarity this season for the team that sits atop the EPL table.
Manchester United’s last 6 away contests really spell the tale for how this season has gone for them; a 1-1 draw at Swansea, a 3-2 win at Man City, a 4-3 win at Reading, a 1-0 loss at Norwich, a 3-2 win at Aston Villa and a 3-2 win at Chelsea.
Notice something?
Despite their last game, a 2-0 win vs West Brom, Manchester United has allowed opponents to score which underscores the problems they face at the back.
Goals have certainly not been a problem for Manchester United, having scored at least 2 goals in 16 of their last 19 premier league games. This doesn’t bode well for a Wigan team that has seen at least 3 combined goals in 5 of their 6 premier league games. In fact, Wigan has conceded 2 or more goals in 14 of their last 20 games in the EPL and kept only 3 clean sheets, the latter of which is highly improbable in this game.
Wigan has conceded 18 goals in 10 home games and managed 13 which gives us a 2.8 average in all games at home.
United has scored 22 goals in 10 road games this season in the EPL but as I noted above, they have been vulnerable at the back, conceding 15 in their EPL travels for a 3.7 average (total goals) in 10 road games for the Red Devils. It’s odd to think that the league leaders have managed to keep only 4 clean sheets in 20 EPL games so far this season but we can thank their first place standing on the fact that they have scored 2 or more goals in 16 of their 20 games.
Manchester United is by far and away the most prolific goal scoring team in the league right now, having scored 50 goals through their first 20 games, 11 more than Chelsea and Arsenal, both at 39 goals each. But, they have allowed 10 more than Chelsea and 7 more than Arsenal which is why I can’t back United to play under a total of 3 even if I wanted to. They are just too susceptible to allowing a goal, regardless of their opponent. (Remember they allowed bottom dwellers Reading to score 3, Southampton 2, Villa 2, QPR 1 etc) The only teams surprisingly, not to score on Man U this season have been West Ham, West Brom, Norwich, Everton and today’s opponent, Wigan, whom Manchester United beat 4-0 at home in the earlier meeting this season.
Keeping a clean sheet last time out for Man U against West Brom (2-0 win) was encouraging but Untied has played so vulnerable at the back that I cannot guarantee that they will do the same again. Notwithstanding whether or not they keep Wigan off the scoreboard altogether, Manchester United still possess the best attack in the league and can very well score 4 themselves, no matter who Ferguson puts up front, and by all accounts, Van Persie will be back in the roster after being rested in Saturday’s 2-0 win.
7 of Man U’s 10 road games this year have seen 3 or more goals as have 7 of Wigan’s last 10 home games.
Overall, Man U averages 16 shots per game and 15 shots per game in their travels. Wigan averages 14. Both teams concede over 13 shots home/away. These are solid numbers if we are to see the chance for offensive output in this game.