Covers Posted Soccer YTD: 45-32 +27.52 units
Tough day on the 3 posted champions league plays but we re-couped with 2 winners that I threw out on Twitter late Wed. Had a loser in Europa today but that was a twitter play too. I will never count my twitter record here on covers. Sometimes I just don't have the time to post on covers so I will tweet out soccer plays. My handle is in my covers spaces... I won't post it on the boards for fear of spambots taking it over.
Let's get back on track for tonight shall we? 3 unit play for me on this one. All my mathematical projections and my models predict 3 goals minimum in this one and one of them actually spit out 5.
Remember, nothing is for sure in this business so please, only bet what you can afford to lose. We all know that no matter how strong a play is, anything can happen and in this world, normally does.
PLUS MONEY is what locked in this play for me as a 3 unit play especially when coupled with my projections.
MEXICAN LEAGUE PLAYOFFS:
Leon V Tijuana over 2.5 +106 3 units
The regular season meeting between these clubs ended Leon 4 -0. BUT that isn't why I love this play.
A battle between 2nd place Tijuana vs Third place Leon in this semi-final is intreaging on so many fronts. Leon won their second leg game in the first round on this very pitch by a score of 3-0 after dropping the opener 2-1 on the road. Tijuana managed 1-1 draw on the road in their away leg after winning 1-0 at home.
Leon's games averaged 3 goals per game this season, not surprising because they led the league in goals scored with 34 in 17 matches. However, they also surrendered an average of a goal a game (17 over the course of the season). As for Tijuana their games averaged 2.23 goals a game but they scored 23 (tied for 4th) in the league in offensive output. They allowed almost a goal a game (15 in total after 17).
Leon is in offensive form with all 5 of their last games surpassing 2.5, most quite easily.
Tijuana likes to play a 4-2-3-1 which is condusive to scoring goals while Leon has fared quite nicely on the offensive end of their game going predominantly with a 4-4-2 lineup that often evolves into an offensive minded 4-3-3.
Leon has a +17 goal differential and Tijuana has a +8. Not bad for Leon considering they conceded a goal a game.
So, with all that said, let's look at Leon at home ... 28 goals scored vs. 8 allowed (10 home games) for a goal average of 3.6 combined per home game. THIS IS WHERE they are most dangerous on offense. At home! Tijuana, in 10 road games has scored 13 and conceded 11 for a 2.4 goal average per road game. Most importantly, they score an average of a goal a game on the road and allow just as much. Again, Tijuana is most vulnerable defensively on the road.
For these reasons, both teams should see the scoresheet tonight and with Leon's propensity for scoring goals at home (and to a degree conceding), the most probable outcome in this game is 2-1.
A beautiful night for soccer in León de los Aldamas with an expected game time temperature of 65 degrees, no wind and low relative humidity.
Taking the over +106 offers good value and worthy of a 3 unit bet simply on the basis of Leon's ability to score and propensity to concede.
2-1 Leon followed by 3-1 are my most likely outcomes. Tijuana may look to defend and take a draw back to them for the return leg but Leon is so attack minded that this tactic might be tricky. I look for Tijuana to search for that important away goal in the first game of this semifinal tie.
Cheers and good luck.
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