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Author: [Soccer] Topic: Euro 2012....
vanzack send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
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#1551
Posted: 6/29/2012 2:32:40 PM

My read on the final:

I went back and watched both the Germany / Italy game from yesterday - and the Italy / Spain game back on June 10th. First - yesterdays game...

Watching it back - Germany played Italy just about even. The end stats were just about even - as were the chances on the field - with some very subtle differences that made the difference for the Italians. First - Pirlo. What can you say about this guy in this tournament? And how did Germany not put a mark on this guy? We all saw how he ran wild over England - and that was when England supposedly had Rooney or Wellbeck marking him at all times - but I fully expected Kroos to be marking Pirlo all over the field. Just watch the first goal again - Pirlo is being harassed - takes the ball a few yards back towards his own goal - then picks out a left wing pass of about 30 yards to a wide open overlapped Italian - who works with Casano to get the cross off to Balotellis head. The germans had Pirlo shut down at midfield - but let him have the space to create - and that was their undoing.

Pirlo has shown that he is not to be given any space whatsoever. In the first Italy / Spain match on June 10th, it was Pirlo who set up DiNatale under similar circumstances. I am fairly certain that the Spanish will set someone like Xabi Alonso to do nothing but shadow Pirlo on defense. But is he even coverable at this point? That should be a big factor in who lifts the cup - but the Italians have set up this midfield "diamond" even without Pirlo that seems to have solved their turnover woes - and gives them almost a "spanish" possession advantage. Very patient - very skilled - very intricate passing triangles - and then boom - one of them picks their head up and there is a runner at the top in on goal. This is very dangerous.

In the first match Italy only had 35% possession. I dont think they will win with this number - and while possession isnt always the determinant of winning and losing - I do think the style that the Italians are playing now will require more possession. Maybe not a majority - but more. Spain will surely recognize this and probably be fine with setting in even deeper than they have done against France and Portugal - just happy to knock it around.

Therefore - because of the need for possession - I am anticipating the same lineup that started against Italy the first time for Spain - the so called "false 9" of 4-6-0. Personally - I think this is when Spain are at their worst - and personally - I think this is the worst tactic to take against this Italy lineup. Spain needs width and depth against a team that is so willing to play in the midfield - and is happy to play narrow. Pedro has looked dangerous to me in his minutes in the tournament - and Navas - while doing nothing very special individually - has created width. If they both start - I think Italy are in trouble - but I dont think they will.

At the risk of repeating myself - because I have said it since the first Spain game - Spain are beatable (or at least drawable) when they paly with no width and depth. There are no gaps between lines - there is no space to work in. How about all the times Spain goes out wide - only to say "darn it, I dont want that wide open flank for a cross" only to pass it back to the middle of the center circle? Or the corner kicks that are either short or end up 100 yards backwards at the feet of Casillas? This is because the lack of space between lines and players - the safest pass is often the shortest pass to a wide open player - but that players position gains you no advantage. As opposed to taking riskier passes to put players in advantageous positions.

I get it. Spain is looking to do this for 90, maybe 120 minutes - and all they need is one attack where a defense goes to sleep for 5 seconds and the ball is in the net. I also get that Spain hasnt given up a goal since June 10th on the foot of DiNatale. 1 goal against in 5 games - none in the last 4+! Amazing. But the times they have looked beatable on defense (against Italy and against Croatia) have been on longer balls because of space - the same type of goals that Italy scored against Germany and have been looking to do all tournament.

It is tough to stay with Balotelli all game when he is doing what he did yesterday. My comments after the first Italy Spain game were that I did not like his lack of movement when he didnt have the ball - but clearly he has gotten that message - the second goal yesterday was a superb finish - but his work just to get in that position was masterful. He basically took BOTH central german defenders totally out of the play by his movement - and had only Lahm (the left back) who had to get out of his position to make up for the central defense lapse. Montolivio picks his head up, from his own third, sees this and the rest is history. I do think the Spanish are succeptable to this - but once again - possession creates these types of chances.

So as far as my pick for this game - TAKING MY FUTURE BET OUT OF THE EQUATION - I would be betting Italy to lift the cup at +145 for 3 units. I think they have an excellent chance to win, or certainly extend the game in to ET or PKs. In fact - I think the way Spain plays - PKs are always an excellent chance.

Conclusion:

I have utility in my wager. It is just flat out a lot of money. It will be the single biggest winning wager of my life if it wins.

But I do like Italy in the game, and nothing has changed with my original Italy to win bet that would make me change my mind now. So is my utility enough to make me take some profits and hedge - even a partial amount? Nope. Im letting it ride. I have just decided that this is the right thing to do - and I would be going against my own philosophies to hedge out now without a proper reason to do so.

But I am very curious to hear what everyone else is doing, and suggestions for tranquilizers to watch the game.

quote
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#1552
Posted: 6/29/2012 2:33:19 PM

Going to repost the whole thing because it got broken up by the page break.....

Alright - so lets look at the Italy to win future situation....

My bet is at +1425. I have 2 units on it, but others have more / less.

I am against hedging unless it fits one of the following conditions - as stated in the epic thread here....

1. There is "utility" in the amounts
2. Something has changed since you made the wager to make you presume value by hedging.
3. You would make a wager on the opposite (hedge) side at the current time if you didnt have the original positiion.

Current Value:
The current value of every unit at +1425, assuming that the price of Spain to win the cup is at -165 = 4.75 units for every unit you have wagered.

You can get this by wagering (hedging if you like the term) 9.5 units on Spain at -165. This would ensure you a PROFIT of 4.75 units. So for every unit you have wagered - you have a net present value of 4.75 units.

Utility:
The term utility roughly means that there is a value to the amount of money in question that is not linear. In other words - to some people 100 thousand dollars is not worth to them 100 times the amount of 1 thousand dollars - 100K would be worth MORE than 100 times 1 thousand dollars to them.

This is a personal calculation. Everyone has a different measure of utility. If you were a millionaire you might not sweat a 100 dollar bet, but if you were homeless - 100 dollars might have utility while a 1 dollar bet would be the one you didnt sweat. Utility is why insurance companies exist, and why people are willing to pay a premium for returns that hold utility.

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#1553
Posted: 6/29/2012 2:33:35 PM

My read on the final:

I went back and watched both the Germany / Italy game from yesterday - and the Italy / Spain game back on June 10th. First - yesterdays game...

Watching it back - Germany played Italy just about even. The end stats were just about even - as were the chances on the field - with some very subtle differences that made the difference for the Italians. First - Pirlo. What can you say about this guy in this tournament? And how did Germany not put a mark on this guy? We all saw how he ran wild over England - and that was when England supposedly had Rooney or Wellbeck marking him at all times - but I fully expected Kroos to be marking Pirlo all over the field. Just watch the first goal again - Pirlo is being harassed - takes the ball a few yards back towards his own goal - then picks out a left wing pass of about 30 yards to a wide open overlapped Italian - who works with Casano to get the cross off to Balotellis head. The germans had Pirlo shut down at midfield - but let him have the space to create - and that was their undoing.

Pirlo has shown that he is not to be given any space whatsoever. In the first Italy / Spain match on June 10th, it was Pirlo who set up DiNatale under similar circumstances. I am fairly certain that the Spanish will set someone like Xabi Alonso to do nothing but shadow Pirlo on defense. But is he even coverable at this point? That should be a big factor in who lifts the cup - but the Italians have set up this midfield "diamond" even without Pirlo that seems to have solved their turnover woes - and gives them almost a "spanish" possession advantage. Very patient - very skilled - very intricate passing triangles - and then boom - one of them picks their head up and there is a runner at the top in on goal. This is very dangerous.

In the first match Italy only had 35% possession. I dont think they will win with this number - and while possession isnt always the determinant of winning and losing - I do think the style that the Italians are playing now will require more possession. Maybe not a majority - but more. Spain will surely recognize this and probably be fine with setting in even deeper than they have done against France and Portugal - just happy to knock it around.

Therefore - because of the need for possession - I am anticipating the same lineup that started against Italy the first time for Spain - the so called "false 9" of 4-6-0. Personally - I think this is when Spain are at their worst - and personally - I think this is the worst tactic to take against this Italy lineup. Spain needs width and depth against a team that is so willing to play in the midfield - and is happy to play narrow. Pedro has looked dangerous to me in his minutes in the tournament - and Navas - while doing nothing very special individually - has created width. If they both start - I think Italy are in trouble - but I dont think they will.

At the risk of repeating myself - because I have said it since the first Spain game - Spain are beatable (or at least drawable) when they paly with no width and depth. There are no gaps between lines - there is no space to work in. How about all the times Spain goes out wide - only to say "darn it, I dont want that wide open flank for a cross" only to pass it back to the middle of the center circle? Or the corner kicks that are either short or end up 100 yards backwards at the feet of Casillas? This is because the lack of space between lines and players - the safest pass is often the shortest pass to a wide open player - but that players position gains you no advantage. As opposed to taking riskier passes to put players in advantageous positions.

I get it. Spain is looking to do this for 90, maybe 120 minutes - and all they need is one attack where a defense goes to sleep for 5 seconds and the ball is in the net. I also get that Spain hasnt given up a goal since June 10th on the foot of DiNatale. 1 goal against in 5 games - none in the last 4+! Amazing. But the times they have looked beatable on defense (against Italy and against Croatia) have been on longer balls because of space - the same type of goals that Italy scored against Germany and have been looking to do all tournament.

It is tough to stay with Balotelli all game when he is doing what he did yesterday. My comments after the first Italy Spain game were that I did not like his lack of movement when he didnt have the ball - but clearly he has gotten that message - the second goal yesterday was a superb finish - but his work just to get in that position was masterful. He basically took BOTH central german defenders totally out of the play by his movement - and had only Lahm (the left back) who had to get out of his position to make up for the central defense lapse. Montolivio picks his head up, from his own third, sees this and the rest is history. I do think the Spanish are succeptable to this - but once again - possession creates these types of chances.

So as far as my pick for this game - TAKING MY FUTURE BET OUT OF THE EQUATION - I would be betting Italy to lift the cup at +145 for 3 units. I think they have an excellent chance to win, or certainly extend the game in to ET or PKs. In fact - I think the way Spain plays - PKs are always an excellent chance.

Conclusion:

I have utility in my wager. It is just flat out a lot of money. It will be the single biggest winning wager of my life if it wins.

But I do like Italy in the game, and nothing has changed with my original Italy to win bet that would make me change my mind now. So is my utility enough to make me take some profits and hedge - even a partial amount? Nope. Im letting it ride. I have just decided that this is the right thing to do - and I would be going against my own philosophies to hedge out now without a proper reason to do so.

But I am very curious to hear what everyone else is doing, and suggestions for tranquilizers to watch the game.

quote
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#1554
Posted: 6/29/2012 3:15:49 PM
We have contrasting views, but that's the beauty of objectivity. Futures wagers (to me) are made to be hedged. 


sPAIN.
quote
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#1555
Posted: 6/29/2012 3:54:48 PM
Hi Vanzack,

I'm new to forum but I just recently found this forum and after a few days I'm happy to meet someone with similar methods to analysis.

I like your outcome but I was wondering... From what I've seen I found Spain lacking in finishers. Superb defense though. I'm curious to know if Spain is to start Torres, xavi, and Fabregas they might have enough firepower to stop Buffon. I've seen too many mistakes the past two games by Buffon to scare me away from Italy. But if Italy is able to a greater amount of possession then Italy should have enough attempts to score goals...

Also what are your opinions on the under/over?

Thanks for your through view of the game.
quote
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#1556
Posted: 6/29/2012 4:05:48 PM
van this game is going to penalties
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#1557
Posted: 6/29/2012 5:33:14 PM
quote
Crashdavis565
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#1558
Posted: 6/29/2012 5:58:56 PM
good luck
great euro
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#1559
Posted: 6/29/2012 6:36:48 PM

Are there any reverse lines out there? Can you get Spain +.5 in regulation? Any thoughts of parlaying Spain ML with a big tennis fav?

Just brainstorming.

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#1560
Posted: 6/29/2012 7:55:54 PM
good luck Van
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#1561
Posted: 6/29/2012 10:10:09 PM
I have 1/2 unit at 1275
2 units at +1525
and 2 units at 1175

Will also be my biggest win if it hits (have hit longer odd futures, but not for for this amount).

As much as I want to lock in a 'win', i just dont see how i can hedge this. Current line on Spain does not offer much value in my opinion.
If anything, I am tempted to add another unit on Italy.

Van, thanks as always for your posts.

Good luck to all
quote
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#1562
Posted: 6/30/2012 2:43:57 AM
superb write up Van.  Seriously, a pleasure to read.  Good luck on Sunday
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#1563
Posted: 6/30/2012 3:58:02 AM
Factor: Going up against arguably the world's best goalkeeper in soccer. 
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#1564
Posted: 6/30/2012 4:36:20 AM
Italy to win the euro for +1500!
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#1565
Posted: 6/30/2012 6:38:33 AM

You are a pleasure to follow and read. Thank you for all you do.

 

I too have Italy +1485, will be my third largest win!

 

This was as classy of a thread as you will ever see.

 

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#1566
Posted: 6/30/2012 7:09:38 AM
first off, great job vz. this thread is a must read if for nothing else to show how it's done. i appreciate the insight and i must admit, my account has been helped because of it. having said that, this is my take on the hedging theory. i personally always lock in profit when available. at the very least, i will hedge off enough to get my original bet back. obviously, you are in the catbird seat with this wager. good luck with whatever you choose and thinks again for all the help.
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#1567
Posted: 6/30/2012 8:54:46 PM

In my opinion,

 

you must hedge enough to take a trip and drown your sorrows in alcohol and ugly women. Atleast hedge enough to help ease your pain. Good luck. And congrats on the guaranteed winner , if you hedge.

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#1568
Posted: 6/30/2012 9:36:32 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Zacreth:

Hi Vanzack,

I'm new to forum but I just recently found this forum and after a few days I'm happy to meet someone with similar methods to analysis.

I like your outcome but I was wondering... From what I've seen I found Spain lacking in finishers. Superb defense though. I'm curious to know if Spain is to start Torres, xavi, and Fabregas they might have enough firepower to stop Buffon. I've seen too many mistakes the past two games by Buffon to scare me away from Italy. But if Italy is able to a greater amount of possession then Italy should have enough attempts to score goals...

Also what are your opinions on the under/over?

Thanks for your through view of the game.

I do have an opinion on the O/U - based on the way Spain plays - I think the 1st half under is a good bet.  Their strategy is to go in to HT scoreless - and let the passing tire out the other team.  Spain have scored only 2 in first halves compared to 6 in second. 

I think the under for the 90 if anything, but would lean to the under in the first half more.  Im not betting it - but that is my thoughts on it.

quote
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#1569
Posted: 6/30/2012 9:37:50 PM

Thanks everyone for posting in here.  It was a fun month.

Im not hedging.  It will all be riding tomorrow on the Azurri.  Im still not exactly sure how I will be able to watch it.

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#1570
Posted: 6/30/2012 10:40:18 PM
I think you are saying that you are not sure whether to hedge your 14-1 bet on Italy winning .......
If so, first of all CONGRATULATIONS on that wager ......

YES to Hedge
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#1571
Posted: 6/30/2012 10:47:42 PM

Van... tremendous posts and insight.  I am with you on Italy. 

Best to you! 

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#1572
Posted: 6/30/2012 10:55:21 PM
yeah van i will be betting 0-0 at half
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#1573
Posted: 7/1/2012 12:45:18 AM
No goalscorer +600 or half time/ full time draw-draw +375 interest you at all?
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#1574
Posted: 7/1/2012 7:55:10 AM

I have a future on Italy too Van and gonna let it ride aswell. Maybe ill do the same bet Prof did, betting on Spain and Italy to win with penalties. Just so that if Spain wins with PKs it wouldnt tilt the darn out of me... Think its a great spot for Italy aswell though.

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#1575
Posted: 7/1/2012 8:05:11 AM
Van

Thank you for a well written post. I enjoyed reading it. Good luck! 
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