Anyone betting on the Kentucky Derby?

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Author: [General Discussion] Topic: Anyone betting on the Kentucky Derby?
scalabrine PM scalabrine
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Posted: 5/4/2017 10:35:27 PM
Looking for some hot tips. But if the favorite is the cream of the crop, tell me.
BWS77 PM BWS77
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Posted: 5/4/2017 11:02:22 PM
Check out the Horse Racing forum on here...  mstrH is a good follow along with a few others.   

Weather may be an issue, gotta look for the horses that like the mud
WinstonTheWolf PM WinstonTheWolf
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Posted: 5/5/2017 12:21:47 AM
Scal, horses worth a shot besides Always Dreaming (not sure how this horse will react in a 20 horse field)

-Mccracken (5 to1) - should be the favorite.
-Irish War Cry (6 to 1) - top 3 finish probably
-Hence (15 to 1)- very live dog, use him in top 3.
-Lookin at Lee (20 to 1) 
-Sonneteer (30 or 40 to 1 but has same shot as Lookin at lee)
scalabrine PM scalabrine
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Posted: 5/5/2017 8:08:43 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BWS77:

Check out the Horse Racing forum on here...  mstrH is a good follow along with a few others.   

Weather may be an issue, gotta look for the horses that like the mud


Wolf - McCracken it is
scalabrine PM scalabrine
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Posted: 5/5/2017 8:17:13 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BWS77:

Check out the Horse Racing forum on here...  mstrH is a good follow along with a few others.   

Weather may be an issue, gotta look for the horses that like the mud

Found some useful tidbits. But I'm not surprised It didn't have a wealth info. How many excellent horse racing handicappers want to hang out in a forum with 5 other guys max.
BWS77 PM BWS77
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Posted: 5/5/2017 8:37:39 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by scalabrine:


Found some useful tidbits. But I'm not surprised It didn't have a wealth info. How many excellent horse racing handicappers want to hang out in a forum with 5 other guys max.

It picks up today and tomorrow.  Check out youtube also...  there are a few guys that do a horse by horse analysis of prior races leading up to Churchill along with predictions.  I found a few good ones last year, if I come across them I'll post the links in here
GimmeMoneyNow PM GimmeMoneyNow
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Posted: 5/5/2017 8:50:01 AM
I've heard if you're ever unsure who to bet in a horse race, pick the one that most represents your Johnson. So, with that in mind:

Fast & Accurate - NO - although I do like the "accurate" part.....
I'm not Irish, but if I was that would be a great name.....
"Always Dreaming" & "Practical Joke" - probably represents about 90% of Covers posters.....

I'm down to "Battle @ Midway" or "Thunder Snow"......

Based mostly on my *ahem* "production".....

Thunder Snow!!! A win/place ticket, please!!!!!
scalabrine PM scalabrine
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Posted: 5/5/2017 9:24:17 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BWS77:


It picks up today and tomorrow.  Check out youtube also...  there are a few guys that do a horse by horse analysis of prior races leading up to Churchill along with predictions.  I found a few good ones last year, if I come across them I'll post the links in here


Post em here if you find em. There's some good info out there on YouTube but too much to sort out.
The Hawk PM The Hawk
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Posted: 5/5/2017 9:31:17 AM
There's like four decent horses here.

What I'll do is bet a $2 trifecta, and a $5 or $10 place wheel bet, covering all the combinations, which gets expensive in a 20-horse field..........
scalabrine PM scalabrine
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Posted: 5/5/2017 11:31:19 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by GimmeMoneyNow:

I've heard if you're ever unsure who to bet in a horse race, pick the one that most represents your Johnson. So, with that in mind:

Fast & Accurate - NO - although I do like the "accurate" part.....
I'm not Irish, but if I was that would be a great name.....
"Always Dreaming" & "Practical Joke" - probably represents about 90% of Covers posters.....

I'm down to "Battle @ Midway" or "Thunder Snow"......

Based mostly on my *ahem* "production".....

Thunder Snow!!! A win/place ticket, please!!!!!


Get the hook for Fozzie Bear here
BWS77 PM BWS77
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Posted: 5/5/2017 11:31:56 AM
Here's a good one, he talks about every horse with recent race performance recaps/videos.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=13rvMaCopKk
stuff PM stuff
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Posted: 5/5/2017 12:25:19 PM
Lookin At Lee over all and all over him, I like the way he closes and Corey Lanerie is a great rider. Not a great post for a twenty horse field but I'm seeing Lookin at Lee coming from the back and right down the middle of the track.,also he will probably go off at 15 or 20 to 1.The trainer is also hungry for a derby since he has never won on the first Sat. in May.Oaklawn Park is my closest track for thoroughbreds and is famous for horses doing well in triple crown races after racing there. The Oaklawn track surface is said to be close to the Churchhill Downs track surface. Thunder Snow gets lasix for the first time Sat. and runs well on a wet track which we will probably have. The 5 horse Always Dreaming has Johnny V up and Todd Pletcher as a trainer and thats a dream in itself. Todd Pletcher reminds me of Norman Rockwell,always on time,always ready, never heard of him partying, game face 24/7.
TheGoldenGoose PM TheGoldenGoose
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Posted: 5/5/2017 1:02:55 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BWS77:

Here's a good one, he talks about every horse with recent race performance recaps/videos.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=13rvMaCopKk




And here's another one with no commentary but if you scroll down its a larger and sharper pdf

http://interactives.courier-journal.com/docs/derby2017/derby.pdf
GimmeMoneyNow PM GimmeMoneyNow
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Posted: 5/5/2017 2:59:30 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by scalabrine:



Get the hook for Fozzie Bear here

Scal, you should bet the house on "Looking At Lee"

"WOKKA WOKKA!!!!!"
Kurshka PM Kurshka
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Posted: 5/5/2017 3:40:20 PM
This is a lot of good information. Not much separating at least ten of them. Its going to be all about getting the best trip. Plus looks like rain and a muddy track. Two of the California have won on a off track.        GL

https://member.xb-online.com/files/images/2017_KD_Wagering_Guide-member2.pdf

And PP's.

http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promos/KYDerby17.pdf
scalabrine PM scalabrine
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Posted: 5/5/2017 7:59:07 PM
To all
Pendo PM Pendo
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Posted: 5/6/2017 9:16:13 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by GimmeMoneyNow:

I've heard if you're ever unsure who to bet in a horse race, pick the one that most represents your Johnson. So, with that in mind:

Fast & Accurate - NO - although I do like the "accurate" part.....
I'm not Irish, but if I was that would be a great name.....
"Always Dreaming" & "Practical Joke" - probably represents about 90% of Covers posters.....

I'm down to "Battle @ Midway" or "Thunder Snow"......

Based mostly on my *ahem* "production".....

Thunder Snow!!! A win/place ticket, please!!!!!


Rather than doing your Homework...
— Playing with your pud —

"Johnson" as you uniquely like to call it -
at least in the past got you some serious WINNERS:

Sunday Silence, and Real Quiet,
I'll Have Another
Genuine Risk, Go for Gin, and Super Saver


Pendo PM Pendo
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Posted: 5/6/2017 9:17:23 AM
Confidence goes up a notch when the margin is 40 points or more
on muf/slop, and 30 points or more on turf. There are times when
3 or 4 1st time starters have ratings perhaps 20 points apart (let's
say 300, 310, 315, 320). Because of other considerations
(trainer, workouts, etc...) one might not favor the one with the
highest rating. Remember this is a capping tool... not gospel.

See these ratings like a baseball player's batting average...  
the higher the average, the greater the probability of getting a hit...
But he won't get a hit every time up. In fact, ball players with a low
batting avg. will often enough out hit the higher average player in a
given game (like say Balty Vs. At-Your-Head-Beantown) but NOT
over the course of the entire season.
Don't over look these less obvious uses for "Mudders & Turfers"
which means do your homework on The Daily Racing Form and
calculate tight Tomlinson Ratings for each nag.
Pendo PM Pendo
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Posted: 5/6/2017 9:19:59 AM
Irish War Cry is one of the best bets in the Derby, /c of pedigree
of 'Beau Genius' w/ 'Polish Numbers' & 'Danzig' (yes, that Danzig)
on a wet track makes him even more formidable if track conditions
are a less than ideal muddy or sloppy.

But Horses with real-life experience over a wet track include the
psycho-case 'Classic Empire', (the odds-on favorite of the Derby)
who broke his maiden on sloppy track at this Churchill last May.
nature1970 PM nature1970
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Posted: 5/6/2017 9:34:39 AM
Best of luck
Posted using a mobile device.
Pendo PM Pendo
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Posted: 5/6/2017 9:35:37 AM
On further analysis of real-life experience Horses-For-Courses:

'Lookin At Lee' placed 2nd by 8 3/4 lengths behind Not This Time
in the G3 Iroquois held at Churchill last September, gaining a BSF
of only 72, his lowest mark in 6 races since.

'Gunnevera' had 1st race last June on slop, and Race Notes indicate
he had “good kick” toward the end in his Place finish.

L@L ties Gunn for the highest Late Pace Rating in the field at 117.
Pendo PM Pendo
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Posted: 5/6/2017 9:49:53 AM
Finishing ot the Real-Life Mudders (RLM):

'Tapwrit' won the one-mile Pulpit Stakes in December at Gulfstream
over a track rated sloppy, but the race was originally scheduled for a
mile on turf.

'Thunder Snow' has 2 races on “soft” turf, finishing 6th in June in the
G2 Coventry Stakes in Great Britain & won October’s G1 Critérium
Int'l over a distance of 1,400 meters (c. 7 furlongs), but in France.

'Girvin' won the Louisiana Derby but is dealing with a quarter-crack
in his hoof, which becomes more painful on a muddy / sloppy track.
OUCH !!
Pendo PM Pendo
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Posted: 5/6/2017 10:01:43 AM
Last, but in no ways least, 'Gormley' won by a head
on a sloppy Santa Anita track in January at a mile grabbing a
94 BSF (but his highest ESF is indeed 116 !!) — and never forget
the fact California horses won the last 3 derbies...
incl. the tri & exacta.  
On top of that, California based horses won the last 3 Preaknesses.  
This one (out of (Seattle Slew no less) likes rain — and for my $$
winstrol + longer works beats out the aforesaid pedigree factor.
According to the Form, "a little fireball on Wednesday and even
more so Thursday, tugging his rider around for nearly two miles."

Pay attention to how the derby starting gate area was constructed.  
It has created a built-in bias !!!  But even so, muddy tracks vary
marketly from one track to another, so Tomlinson Ratings don’t
ensure any certain success in the slop under Twin Spires.
The Hawk PM The Hawk
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Posted: 5/6/2017 10:28:26 AM
Uh-oh

Weather................
scalabrine PM scalabrine
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Posted: 5/6/2017 11:56:22 AM
Great stuff Pendo
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