French Presidential Election

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Author: [General Discussion] Topic: French Presidential Election
bigvern1013 PM bigvern1013
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Posted: 5/1/2017 12:53:16 PM

Just went to predictit.com and bought Marine Le Pen to win at 18 cents per share.

Now, this is not like the Trump play......this is trading. I like an entry point of 18cents.....I look for slack in European equities as the week moves on....this will be a sign of uncertainty regarding the "sure thing" election of Macron. Should get a bump up into the mid 20s to low 30s by Friday...at which point I will reevaluate...if I get a 2/1 return then that is fine by me.

Remember, Macron is an investment banker....that will not sit well with the far left in France. Look for low turnouts here and a growing perception of a possible Le Pen upset.

Like I said, I am not a French election expert....but the current wave of successful nationalist candidates will make this thing look to be a horserace....and that is all I need.

Slobbasaurus PM Slobbasaurus
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Posted: 5/1/2017 1:26:14 PM
Viva Marine!  `

Macron to win and status quo as with Hollande.  French are getting what they deserve if they don't elect Le Pen.  Unlike us Yanks and Brits, the French don't have the b@lls to elect a Le Pen like we did with Trump or what the Brits did over the summer with the Brezit referendum.   

They are country full of Bernie and Hillary voters.  

I hope I'm wrong.  
DoubleUp4Life PM DoubleUp4Life
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Posted: 5/1/2017 1:32:04 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Slobbasaurus:

Viva Marine!  `

Macron to win and status quo as with Hollande.  French are getting what they deserve if they don't elect Le Pen.  Unlike us Yanks and Brits, the French don't have the b@lls to elect a Le Pen like we did with Trump or what the Brits did over the summer with the Brezit referendum.   

They are country full of Bernie and Hillary voters.  

I hope I'm wrong.  


OUR US GOVT. IS A JOKE

HAS BEEN FOR ALONG TIME 

TRUMP IS THE PUNCHLINE 

Slobbasaurus PM Slobbasaurus
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Posted: 5/1/2017 1:39:04 PM
He can't do any worse than his predecessor.  

We'll see after he has some time in Office.  Even the most level-headed Democrats are giving him time.  It's kind of foolish writing him off right now.
bigvern1013 PM bigvern1013
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Posted: 5/1/2017 2:08:01 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Slobbasaurus:

Viva Marine!  `

Macron to win and status quo as with Hollande.  French are getting what they deserve if they don't elect Le Pen.  Unlike us Yanks and Brits, the French don't have the b@lls to elect a Le Pen like we did with Trump or what the Brits did over the summer with the Brezit referendum.   

They are country full of Bernie and Hillary voters.  

I hope I'm wrong.  

Exactly my point......Macron does nothing to appeal to the far left...they will likely stay home. You will see the right rally over immigration and possible exit from the EU....Macron will have only establishment types on his side.

The French dynamic is interesting...they run 2 rounds of elections, and last round dropped 2 candidates. I contest that in a pure 1:1 matchup, without the other candidates splitting the vote, we are likely to have an unpredictable result.

If I can cash out Saturday night with a good price, I will certainly take the money. If not.....let it ride.

DoubleUp4Life PM DoubleUp4Life
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Posted: 5/1/2017 2:38:42 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Slobbasaurus:

He can't do any worse than his predecessor.  

We'll see after he has some time in Office.  Even the most level-headed Democrats are giving him time.  It's kind of foolish writing him off right now.


OUR POLITICAL SYSTEM IS A FRAUD 

2 PARTIES = OUTDATED 

STICKING WITH PARTY LINES IS STATUS QUO 

Only 2 Choices  =
BEING FORCED TO DECIDE 
between Vomit or diarrea  on your PIZZA


OUR GOVERNMENT is controlled by the MEGA RICH 
... 
Slobbasaurus PM Slobbasaurus
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Posted: 5/1/2017 4:02:39 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by bigvern1013:

Exactly my point......Macron does nothing to appeal to the far left...they will likely stay home. You will see the right rally over immigration and possible exit from the EU....Macron will have only establishment types on his side.

The French dynamic is interesting...they run 2 rounds of elections, and last round dropped 2 candidates. I contest that in a pure 1:1 matchup, without the other candidates splitting the vote, we are likely to have an unpredictable result.

If I can cash out Saturday night with a good price, I will certainly take the money. If not.....let it ride.


If Le Pen wins, it's going to be a sh!tstorm in financial markets worldwide.  I think Wall Street already has a Macron win priced in.  The uncertainty that markets will be with a possible "Frexit," investors are going to be in sell mode on an international scale.  

Precious metals and mining stocks seem the way to go if you think Le Pen has a realistic chance.  

Anyways it's going to be interesting.  Not coming off as evil or anything, but another terrorist attack would do her a solid as it did before the first round of voting.  

Then as sure as you were born, the Liberals would be crying "False Flag!"
bigvern1013 PM bigvern1013
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Posted: 5/1/2017 4:47:33 PM
This thing is already gaining steam...I am putting a high buy on Le Pen:

http://news.sky.com/story/marine-le-pen-gaining-on-emmanuel-macron-in-french-election-polls-10858899

Now I get it.....still down 20%...in those polls. But look at what is going to happen this week....she already made a deal with the center right candidate that lost gaining his support (promising a post) and there is a televised debate Wednesday with Le Pen and Macron.

If nothing else, we will get some pricing volatility. I just doubled my position. No joke. 
SwishSwish1234 PM SwishSwish1234
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Posted: 5/1/2017 4:52:55 PM
Le Pen is +550 at Bet365, I'll have some of that, This is an election i couldn't care less about other than the fact if Le Pen wins, The media will throw another hissy fit and act like ww3 is about to start and plus you will get all those White French folks (The BBC lovers) that will protest after the result and say stuff like this isn't my France blah blah, We've been here before two times in recent years, and despite the hissy fits ww3 hasn't begun.
Sidehatch PM Sidehatch
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Posted: 5/1/2017 5:43:57 PM
I just visited France and can tell you that the candidates from the other parties are not rushing to endorse Macron, which was assumed. LePen also quickly one-upped Macron shortly after the 4/23 primary. 

Macron responded a day later by showing that the Russians have been trying to hack his campaign for the last year, just like the DNC. 

Don't get me wrong - most French folks dislike LePen. However, shortly after that 4/23 election, LePen executed significantly strengthened her position in part because of her own campaign, and in part due to dumb luck. I'd take her at +550. 

For the record, I hate this new breed of fascist nationalists. 

I hope Trump's plan to increase my taxes by 250% fails. He needs to delete the following two things from his plan:
- Trump's proposed elimination of the mortgage interest deduction
- Trump's proposed elimination of the deduction for state/local taxes paid (huge impact of thousands of dollars per person)

His elimination of the mortgage interest deduction will punish new homeowners. I understand the increase in the standard deduction offsets that somewhat, but why punish homeowners? Wall Street also expects that to decrease home values by about 6-7%. 

Yay, higher taxes and lower home values! Thanks for trying to put me underwater!

Hopefully he'll botch it up, just like everything else so far.
CreamCaramel PM CreamCaramel
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Posted: 5/1/2017 6:08:29 PM
Macron will most likely win pretty comfortably. The National Front is a pariah to most French citizens as it should be. Macron is a dreadful centrist, neoliberal. This is what the French Revolution led to? 
lovethedough PM lovethedough
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Posted: 5/2/2017 1:39:49 AM
France is at its make or break turning point, just as the United States was before we rejected Hillary. France, electing Le Pen may be your very last chance to remain France... a white, Christian, European nation. Unless you want to become a violent, third world, crime-ridden extension of the Middle East, then you'd better elect her. I would encourage you to also pray to our Lord and Savior, Jesus Christ, to show you favor. We Christians prayed for a change in direction in America, and behold the miracle of Trump! Have Faith, France!
Slobbasaurus PM Slobbasaurus
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Posted: 5/2/2017 8:52:47 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by lovethedough:

France is at its make or break turning point, just as the United States was before we rejected Hillary. France, electing Le Pen may be your very last chance to remain France... a white, Christian, European nation. Unless you want to become a violent, third world, crime-ridden extension of the Middle East, then you'd better elect her. I would encourage you to also pray to our Lord and Savior, Jesus Christ, to show you favor. We Christians prayed for a change in direction in America, and behold the miracle of Trump! Have Faith, France!

That's pretty funny.
bigvern1013 PM bigvern1013
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Posted: 5/4/2017 3:34:48 PM

Right now the DAX is rallying, as is the CAC40.......European equities are telling us the Macron has already won....


Tommorrow's market will be huge...I like a sell off to close the session.....if the institutions go home long then I will begin to look for the door.

Right now Le Pen is holding at 18c, after 3 separate bumps to 20.....post debate reviews were good, but it just doesn't seem to matter. If she wins, it will be a bigger upset than Trump in my mind.

Slobbasaurus PM Slobbasaurus
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Posted: 5/4/2017 3:41:47 PM
Big Vern, 

If you remember before the Brexit referendum vote last summer, the Dow was up over 200 points before close with the anticipation of a "stay" outcome.  I remember waking up the next morning to see it over 600 points in the red after the polls got it wrong and the people wanted "leave."  Precious metals and mining skyrocketed while equities tanked.  

I'm hoping for the same thing this Monday.  Le Pen wins and your "safe havens" in previous metals and oil will get a nice boost.  
packers1992 PM packers1992
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Posted: 5/4/2017 5:50:23 PM

Hey vern I sent you a PM

BOL with your bet

bigvern1013 PM bigvern1013
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Posted: 5/4/2017 8:45:24 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Slobbasaurus:

Big Vern, 

If you remember before the Brexit referendum vote last summer, the Dow was up over 200 points before close with the anticipation of a "stay" outcome.  I remember waking up the next morning to see it over 600 points in the red after the polls got it wrong and the people wanted "leave."  Precious metals and mining skyrocketed while equities tanked.  

I'm hoping for the same thing this Monday.  Le Pen wins and your "safe havens" in previous metals and oil will get a nice boost.  

I hear you on the equities rally before Brexit...but these guys going home long over the weekend is a big deal to me...I realize that those indices don't open limit up or down like futures do, but their open could be devastating to some idiot who decided not to cash out when he could.....

Gold will certainly rally on Le Pen....but there are some serious players keeping crude depressed...I trade WTI Crude futures every day. That market is stagnate--good volumes, but tight daily ranges. I believe my range oscillator the other day was 105 (projected range)....I remember during Arab spring when it was 379.

The oil market has fundamentally changed...supply and demand is the same as it has been for the last 5 years....I mean the actual trading operations have changed.

bigvern1013 PM bigvern1013
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Posted: 5/5/2017 1:02:37 PM

Well, there she blows.......

We have traded between 18-20c all week long...both the FDAX and CAC40 closed up today, and price dropped immediately to 16c.

So, this thing is going to tank. I look for 10-12 by vote time......if early exit polls are surprising, then I will get a bump, but this is a dead fish right now, and I am likely going to ride the storm out. No easy money here...

FWIW, take look what has happened this week:

1) Emergency meeting at Buckingham palace in London. Participants say it was "extremely unusual."

2) Le Pen goes on offense in the debate...not unlike Trump in debate #2......"No matter what happens in this election, France will be led by a woman--either me or Merkel."

3) Polling data continues to tighten, but is still 70/30 Macron

4) Last night Obama gave his official endorsement to Macron. Video is up on youtube.

5) International equities close way up for the week.

So, it looks like there is a chance here, but the market action today did not go as I thought. Very happy I did not sell binaries last nigh


bigvern1013 PM bigvern1013
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Posted: 5/5/2017 1:07:33 PM
t...that was a close one.
bigvern1013 PM bigvern1013
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Posted: 5/8/2017 6:58:17 PM
Ouch......the signs were there that something was cooking but a 33% defeat is ugly.
lovethedough PM lovethedough
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Posted: 5/8/2017 7:11:06 PM
France is gone, baby, gone. The camel stuck his nose under the tent and won. Sorry to see you go, France...

Better to keep the liberals and immigrants in one cesspool and let it collapse on their heads. Maybe that will be the role of France as the EU falls apart.
lovethedough PM lovethedough
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Posted: 5/8/2017 7:35:26 PM
Western Europe, with its open borders, is doomed....France is in the forefront of the race to the plughole! Le Pen, did well to avoid the Presidency as there is very little room for manoeuvre in such a defeatist country! Indeed, Macron, will, inevitably become even more unpopular than Hollande, as Muslim atrocities will occur with increasing frequency and people get fed up with flowers and candles as the only response to Islamic terrorism....
packers1992 PM packers1992
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Posted: 5/8/2017 9:01:45 PM

Dear France:

When the muslims come and set up sharia courts/sharia law and your women die their hair dark so they don't get raped....Don't think you're coming to America as refugees

Slobbasaurus PM Slobbasaurus
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Posted: 5/9/2017 10:54:55 AM
They made their bed and now must lie in it. 
 
SwishSwish1234 PM SwishSwish1234
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Posted: 5/10/2017 10:49:17 AM
I couldn't care less about the result but notice how there hasn't been any protests over the result from Le Pen supporters unlike when those liberals lose.
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