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Author: [General Discussion] Topic: ~ a capper vs a gambler ~
KktdocT
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#1
Posted: 8/14/2012 2:43:24 AM
the difference:

a capper extends his knowledge through endless numbers & stats, while a gambler hone the skills through his wagers.  what's your perspective?

if you're going to engage yourself in a reply, do so without the personal petulant brawl.
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#2
Posted: 8/14/2012 4:47:13 AM

I do both.

My personal rules on sports gambling:

1. Bankroll money management and Kelly Criterion. You should only be betting 1% to 10% of your total bankroll.
2. Do your research by watching game footage, finding useful trends and useful statistics.
3. Never bet on heavily juiced lines. Like a line at -1000 for example.
4. Never bet on heavily valued lines. Like a terrible team at 100 to 1 odds to win championship.
5. Teams with home field/court advantage tend to win games.
6. Be a strategic gambler by picking your spots and wait for the right opportunity. Never be an impulsive gambler by betting for the action, just because it feels good or it's your favorite team. Patience is virtue.
7. Stay emotionless all the time. Bet like a robot. There's no place for emotions in this profession.

8. Parlays should be no longer than 2 teams, the bigger the parlay is, the bigger the House Edge. Research and Secure your first pick before moving on to your second pick.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=89HtJmQgjww

9. Teasers should never pass through the zero.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RP3P9OJvukQ
 
10. Never bet on double digit road favorites. You will lose in the long run.
11. Always make your bet near game time. Players could get injured during the week before game time.
12. Sportsbook have an edge on the NFL than the NCAAF because they can focus on the 32 NFL teams but cannot focus on the hundreds of NCAAF teams.
13. Never deposit money for sportsbook bonus money that requires rollover. You are immediately juiced before you even placed your first bet.
14. Never bet on preseason games on any sport. Predicting a 2nd string and 3rd string team is stupid.
15. If you are extremely impulsive, arrogant and biased. The best advice is to "Don't Gamble".
16. Never gamble if you are drunk, sleepy, hungry, depressed or angry.

quote
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#3
Posted: 8/14/2012 7:38:33 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by GunShard:

I do both.

My personal rules on sports gambling:

1. Bankroll money management and Kelly Criterion. You should only be betting 1% to 10% of your total bankroll.
2. Do your research by watching game footage, finding useful trends and useful statistics.
3. Never bet on heavily juiced lines. Like a line at -1000 for example.
4. Never bet on heavily valued lines. Like a terrible team at 100 to 1 odds to win championship.
5. Teams with home field/court advantage tend to win games.
6. Be a strategic gambler by picking your spots and wait for the right opportunity. Never be an impulsive gambler by betting for the action, just because it feels good or it's your favorite team. Patience is virtue.
7. Stay emotionless all the time. Bet like a robot. There's no place for emotions in this profession.

8. Parlays should be no longer than 2 teams, the bigger the parlay is, the bigger the House Edge. Research and Secure your first pick before moving on to your second pick.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=89HtJmQgjww

9. Teasers should never pass through the zero.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RP3P9OJvukQ
 
10. Never bet on double digit road favorites. You will lose in the long run.
11. Always make your bet near game time. Players could get injured during the week before game time.
12. Sportsbook have an edge on the NFL than the NCAAF because they can focus on the 32 NFL teams but cannot focus on the hundreds of NCAAF teams.
13. Never deposit money for sportsbook bonus money that requires rollover. You are immediately juiced before you even placed your first bet.
14. Never bet on preseason games on any sport. Predicting a 2nd string and 3rd string team is stupid.
15. If you are extremely impulsive, arrogant and biased. The best advice is to "Don't Gamble".
16. Never gamble if you are drunk, sleepy, hungry, depressed or angry.

  Great advice
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KktdocT
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#4
Posted: 8/14/2012 11:20:09 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by GunShard:

I do both.

My personal rules on sports gambling:

1. Bankroll money management and Kelly Criterion. You should only be betting 1% to 10% of your total bankroll.
2. Do your research by watching game footage, finding useful trends and useful statistics.
3. Never bet on heavily juiced lines. Like a line at -1000 for example.
4. Never bet on heavily valued lines. Like a terrible team at 100 to 1 odds to win championship.
5. Teams with home field/court advantage tend to win games.
6. Be a strategic gambler by picking your spots and wait for the right opportunity. Never be an impulsive gambler by betting for the action, just because it feels good or it's your favorite team. Patience is virtue.
7. Stay emotionless all the time. Bet like a robot. There's no place for emotions in this profession.

8. Parlays should be no longer than 2 teams, the bigger the parlay is, the bigger the House Edge. Research and Secure your first pick before moving on to your second pick.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=89HtJmQgjww

9. Teasers should never pass through the zero.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RP3P9OJvukQ
 
10. Never bet on double digit road favorites. You will lose in the long run.
11. Always make your bet near game time. Players could get injured during the week before game time.
12. Sportsbook have an edge on the NFL than the NCAAF because they can focus on the 32 NFL teams but cannot focus on the hundreds of NCAAF teams.
13. Never deposit money for sportsbook bonus money that requires rollover. You are immediately juiced before you even placed your first bet.
14. Never bet on preseason games on any sport. Predicting a 2nd string and 3rd string team is stupid.
15. If you are extremely impulsive, arrogant and biased. The best advice is to "Don't Gamble".
16. Never gamble if you are drunk, sleepy, hungry, depressed or angry.


...............................................

in agreement with the above emphasis, mate.  terrific list.
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#5
Posted: 8/14/2012 12:04:58 PM

Solid list.  #16 is crucially important.  

In a perfect world #7 is possible to achieve....the reality is we all get happy or relieved when we win, and pissed off or a bit agitated when we lose.   The key is to stay off tilt, and do not  let emotions lead you to chase. No matter what.

#8 and #9 are great info....many guys lay off of the teasers and parlays, but a 2 tm ml parlay and 2 team 6 pt tease at even money can be cash registers.

Ready for football. 

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#6
Posted: 8/14/2012 12:23:48 PM
10. Never bet on double digit road favorites. You will lose in the long run.

_____________

Never make blanket statements like this.  If you were able to get USC as a 10 point favorite at SMU the first week of the season, would you take it?  I think yes.  


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#7
Posted: 8/14/2012 12:27:05 PM
4. Never bet on heavily valued lines. 

  


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#8
Posted: 8/14/2012 12:47:48 PM

Unfortunately, most of the time, a capper and a gambler are NO different from one another.  Going in, yes.  But after the dust settles and both people are down the same amount of money in the long run, they both are just losing gamblers. 

You are ONLY judged by your profits and losses, so when both end up losing, it does not matter how much research was put in to make the losing wager. 

The most important difference is not how the person comes up with his selection.  If someone takes no time analyzing a game and loses, he is no different from the guy that pours over the stats for an hour and comes up with the same losing selection.

The same holds true for a winning selection.  Does the guy who intensely researched the game get paid more just because he spent so much time and effort handicapping the game? 

As far as money management, the two crucial keys to staying in the game gambling-wise is first to have a strict loss limit.  When you lose that amount for the day or week, you are done.    

And the second most important  thing is to have a REALISTIC win amount that you would be happy with for that day or week.  If you are lucky enough to hit that number (hit and run), collect and start fresh the following week.   One obviously needs to occasionally collect to help offset the losses. 

But betting a percent of your bankroll sounds good in theory, but is EXTREMELY flawed.  For someone trying to actually make money at gambling, it just keeps you in the game, but slowly whittles down your investment.  But it is excellent for a  RECREATIONAL bettor who just wants to have SOME money in their account at all times, even if it is a much smaller amount than they started with.

 

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#9
Posted: 8/15/2012 1:49:06 PM
#16 I'd never bet LMAO!
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#10
Posted: 8/15/2012 2:28:53 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by GunShard:

I do both.

My personal rules on sports gambling:

3. Never bet on heavily juiced lines. Like a line at -1000 for example.
4. Never bet on heavily valued lines. Like a terrible team at 100 to 1 odds to win championship.
5. Teams with home field/court advantage tend to win games

8. Parlays should be no longer than 2 teams, the bigger the parlay is, the bigger the House Edge. Research and Secure your first pick before moving on to your second pick.

10. Never bet on double digit road favorites. You will lose in the long run.
11. Always make your bet near game time. Players could get injured during the week before game time.
12. Sportsbook have an edge on the NFL than the NCAAF because they can focus on the 32 NFL teams but cannot focus on the hundreds of NCAAF teams.


I disagree with you on these.


3,4,5, and 10 - if there is value in a line, bet it, no matter if it is +10000 or -1000 or a road favorite or whatever.  Now, with the heavily juiced lines, I agree there will rarely be any value, but there is often value in futures that are 100-1 or more



#11 makes no difference.  An injury or player not in the lineup can help or hurt you.  Again, if there is value early in the week, bet it.  

#8 is true for some books, but not others.  A good online book will give you "true" odds for a parlay.  For other books, you need to check.  I've seen a lot of books where a 3 team parlay is a better bet than a 2 team.  ( 2 team pays 3-1 but 3 teams pay 6-1).

The key to parlays is to never put in a game that starts after the rest of the games in the parlay finish.  You wind up hedging, which means you pay juice twice.  If you don't put that game in, you secure your profits and you can decide how much you want to put on the last game.  IMO, the only time you should parlay is the side and the total in the same game, because that can be correlated. 


#12 - you can't be serious.  Books study every thing that goes into the line, for all leagues. They wouldn't post a line if they didn't fell like they knew enough.  If the Sportsbooks have a bigger edge in NFL, it is not because they don't study college as much.  

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#11
Posted: 8/15/2012 2:40:57 PM
A Capper is a guy who claims to know by study the best chance for winning and posts online.

A Gambler is a guy who puts his money where a Cappers mouth is

What makes a successful capper..a mastery of babbel and bullshit

What makes a successful gambler ...a lot of money and longevity.
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#12
Posted: 8/16/2012 6:03:11 AM

9. Teasers should never pass through the zero.


I actually like teasing a -9.5 fav to +3.5 on my nfl 4team 13 point teasers... securing that 3 considering games end in with a score difference of 3 points about a 1/4 of the time

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KktdocT
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#13
Posted: 8/16/2012 8:30:53 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Bluefin:

A Capper is a guy who claims to know by study the best chance for winning and posts online.

A Gambler is a guy who puts his money where a Cappers mouth is

What makes a successful capper..a mastery of babbel and bullshit

What makes a successful gambler ...a lot of money and longevity.

................................................

superb definition, by far.
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#14
Posted: 8/16/2012 9:01:15 AM
Never betting on double digit road favorites or heavily juiced lines is simply flawed. Depends entirely on the situation & if there's any value to the bet. If a good team is listed at -14 on the road but taking everything into account I handicap the team at lets say -16, i'll definitely make the bet because I feel there's 2 points of value in the bet. Also-20 years ago # 12 might have been correct-but not today. These days-there's no lack of focus on anything when it comes to college pointspreads. There's plenty of instant info available on even the most remote colleges for the books to place accurate opening college football & basketball  lines.
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#15
Posted: 8/20/2012 12:26:49 AM
Gambler



 


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#16
Posted: 8/20/2012 3:33:58 AM
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#17
Posted: 8/20/2012 5:02:14 AM
My rules for sports betting...TOOLS -DirectTv Sports pkgs..CFB,NFL,NHL,CBB,MLB..9 Tv s preferrably 12..wireless internet..asst on cfb,cbb,saturdays..Nfl sun,,Nfl mon nt and Thurs games..Have at least 8 off shore books..wager around 100-150 games( I know more ppl that win that bet a tiny fraction but I like nhl,tt,in games,halftimes,totals) per week..Having 8 books will help u win a couple extra a week but u got to pay someone to help u or get some broke college stud who wants to make a few bucks..10 bucks hr..if u bet 100 a game or 1000 game its same and allow urself that amount for pars..ie//if im betting a g per game I have 1000 bucks to bet parlays..keeps me from getting crazy..Treat it like a job that u love..read all books can grt ur hands on..Find ppl that have expertise in certain teams and exchange emails..Ive got a friend that writes on Phillies..I email him 25 times a season and find him helpful.No matter how much u love a game there ISNT A Lock..when I was 18 id got to Tj @8AM manufacter wins at sportsbook until 5pm pacific then let it all ride bc I wanted to chase hos all night and lose like a dumbass..be a GRINDER..A lot of small bets..end of day its all about PROFIT..dont get fucked up when u bet and lose..wait until ur done..Get goldsheet,sports lit mailed to u,,Mags ..Read Covers..Contests..who s hot..just.I look for advice but I pick my own games..Dont bet just to bet..Bet something u think has 55% chance of winning..I like Teasers But keep it to a strict minium..Basketball is the most important game to know.There are 3 NBA seasons to 1 NFL..and all those college games on Tues,wed,sat just makes me drool...pay somebody to help u..with stats...Take 1 day off a week no matter what to clear ur head..dont look at lines or anything..I mean nothing..all i can think of now..
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#18
Posted: 8/20/2012 5:10:02 AM

TOTALLY DISAGREE with making wager right before gametime..I agree its better to but I cant tell u how many games I get @9am,love it ,play it then by 5pm its gone from -1 to 3,5 for example..if I bet and something Crazy happens just bet other side but I would never follow that rule bc u can get some great bargains at 9am..if ur playing 100 to 150 plays a week it can make a BIG DIFFERENCE.

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#19
Posted: 8/20/2012 5:31:16 AM

@kkt-find u to really know what ur doing and would guess u make a lot of cash.Stats are great and u HAVE to do it ,but I think there is a HUGE emotional factor in betting..especially baskets ..This comes with watching games but if Ive watched teams often..like watching UAB defeat Kentucky a few yrs ago,UAB beat UK but played played best game they could and Kentucky couldnt have played any worse.They played a yr or 2 later and both teams surprisingly had same kids...the line was surprisingly UK being favored.UK was ready this time and STOMPED UAB..I put A LOT OF STOCK in previous meetings if a lot of players return..Like game 6 in Finals-Who thought Lebron was gonna be NASTY GOOD? I did bc if he wouldve lost ...whoooo nelly..NFL &NBA& MLB..anybody can beat anybody unlike college.Im prob just rambling..I used to not bet a game bc line looked to good..if u like it PLAY IT PERIOD!

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#20
Posted: 8/20/2012 5:44:19 AM
Good reads ..
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#21
Posted: 8/20/2012 5:57:48 PM
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#22
Posted: 8/20/2012 5:59:15 PM
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#23
Posted: 8/20/2012 6:51:08 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by KktdocT:

the difference:

a capper extends his knowledge through endless numbers & stats, while a gambler hone the skills through his wagers.  what's your perspective?

if you're going to engage yourself in a reply, do so without the personal petulant brawl.


although i agree with the statement; which is it better to be?


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#24
Posted: 8/22/2012 4:06:10 PM
Most days I'm 55% capper 45% gambler  sometimes it's as low as 35%/65%

Vanzack made the same point with his two types of gamblers the 5% club of pro cappers and the 95% club of degenerates to which most of us belong
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#25
Posted: 8/22/2012 4:21:31 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by GunShard:

I do both.

My personal rules on sports gambling:

1. Bankroll money management and Kelly Criterion. You should only be betting 1% to 10% of your total bankroll.
2. Do your research by watching game footage, finding useful trends and useful statistics.
3. Never bet on heavily juiced lines. Like a line at -1000 for example.
4. Never bet on heavily valued lines. Like a terrible team at 100 to 1 odds to win championship.
5. Teams with home field/court advantage tend to win games.
6. Be a strategic gambler by picking your spots and wait for the right opportunity. Never be an impulsive gambler by betting for the action, just because it feels good or it's your favorite team. Patience is virtue.
7. Stay emotionless all the time. Bet like a robot. There's no place for emotions in this profession.

8. Parlays should be no longer than 2 teams, the bigger the parlay is, the bigger the House Edge. Research and Secure your first pick before moving on to your second pick.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=89HtJmQgjww

9. Teasers should never pass through the zero.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RP3P9OJvukQ
 
10. Never bet on double digit road favorites. You will lose in the long run.
11. Always make your bet near game time. Players could get injured during the week before game time.
12. Sportsbook have an edge on the NFL than the NCAAF because they can focus on the 32 NFL teams but cannot focus on the hundreds of NCAAF teams.
13. Never deposit money for sportsbook bonus money that requires rollover. You are immediately juiced before you even placed your first bet.
14. Never bet on preseason games on any sport. Predicting a 2nd string and 3rd string team is stupid.
15. If you are extremely impulsive, arrogant and biased. The best advice is to "Don't Gamble".
16. Never gamble if you are drunk, sleepy, hungry, depressed or angry.


words to live by... ive made plenty a dumb bet while drunk and wake up the next morning to regrett it... one time i bet my whole bankroll on an in game cuz i was drunk and feeling untouchable from going 4-0 for the day
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