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#8 VA Tech vs #16 Virginia
It's been a long while since both teams have played eachother as ranked opponents. You'd have to go back to 2003; that's how long Virginia have been a bad team. That year was the last UVA beat VA Tech. But thanks to an experienced O-line and an underated defense, the Cavaliers are quite a surprise in the ACC. I think they're 4 wins over last year's record, to date. And those wins, they've come ugly. This season, UVA sets the college football record for winning 5 games by 2 points or fewer.
2007 strength of schedule:
VA Tech 29
Virginia 71
In November "Rivalry Week" games and in December and January Bowl games, you have to consider each teams' SoS as part of your regimen of handicapping. The better tested team usually wins and covers the spread. Huge edge here for VA Tech if you consider this angle.
Situational factors:
UVA is coming off of a bye-week. From UVA's game notes: Virginia is 9-2 following a bye week under head coach Al Groh, including 7-0 at home. Cavaliers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a bye week.
The Cavaliers are the only ACC team that is undefeated at home this season.
VA Tech is 46-37 (55%) all time versus UVA, 5-2 (71%) when both are ranked, 10-2 (83%) when they are ranked higher than Virginia. The Cavaliers hold a slim 18-17-3 advantage on their home field in this series with the Hokies.
Scott Stadium is synthetic turf. Hokies stadium is natural grass. I know the Hokies have something like a 6-1 ATS record on grass but [for now] i can't find any ATS record for how they perform on a rug.
Skilled positions match-ups:
I think Branden Ore will have a hard time running against UVA, whose rush defense is ranked 19th nationally. Ore had barely 40 yards versus Florida State, whose rush defense is similarly ranked alike UVA's. FSU uses a 4-3 set, UVA uses the 3-4. I expect no more than 70 yards from Branden Ore in this match-up. Maybe less if Tyrod Taylor takes a few snaps himself, in place of Sean Glennon.
Conversely, UVA will have an 8th ranked rush defense to pit Cedric Peerman, Mikell Simpson, Keith Payne against. A 50-yard day for Peerman would be an accomplishment versus the Hokies rush defense. Mikell Simpson have been a pleasant suprise at this half of the season, proving he can be a tail-back and a receiver as well, utilizing his smallish size and speed in the slot and out of the back-field. My handicapping system predicts him to play very well in this match-up.
According to my system, both QBs will perform fairly well. And that includes Tyrod Taylor if he gets some under center.
This game will be a battle of the tight-ends. Both teams utilize their tight-ends a lot. UVA's Jonathan Stupar and Tom Santi are expected to have good games. They will match-up well versus the Hokies linebackers. Tech's Josh Morgan also gets a good rating and should have a productive game for the Hokies as well.
Special teams:
Slight edge to UVA's Weigand for punting. Overall edge to Beamerball special teams play.
Under/Over 39:
Lots of trends supporting the Under here. But i like the Over. If this was last year's Cavaliers offense, which averaged only 80 yards of total offense per game in 2006, i'd go for the Under. UVA has improved in both facets of the game this year, averaging 337.2 total yards per game. According to my handicapping predictors, Jameel Sewell will be successful with his passing game, even versus this 26th ranked Hokies passing defense. No wager on the total [for me] either way.
I'll take the Wahoos plus the points here even though i feel that the Hokies have a [slightly] better chance at winning this ball game. Hopefully its just by 3 points or less. Decent chance that UVA could win this one SU.
The ACC is a wacky conference in that there are a lot of zig-zag types of wins and losses. Its the "anything-can-happen" league. Maryland will handily beat Boston College one week and loose SU to FSU the following week. Clemson looks dominant one week with a win over NC State and loose to GA Tech the next week. Every team in this conference have had its share of lopsided wins and losses.
But then, when Arkansas looses badly to Tennessee and then wins at LSU the following week, you can say the wackiness just about rampant in any conference. It's just that type of year.
The pick: Wahoos +3½
0
im taking it too
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