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Week 2 Redemption Saturday

Forum: College Football
Author: [College Football] Topic: Week 2 Redemption Saturday
PhillyBrown PM PhillyBrown
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Posted: 9/6/2017 9:10:51 PM
Last week i crushed the midweek games, then got crushed on Saturday. Was shocked how bad some of the teams played, but of course there was some bad calls and some bad luck, just not a good day.

Anyway I have some much better plays on tap for this Saturday and hope to make up for the bad run.

One play in particular will be probably my top play for the month in college football, it will be posted on Friday or possibly halftime tomorrow night.

For now I'm looking at:
Duke +3.5
Tulane +13
NC St -23.5
Wash St -10.5 2 units

But like I said, I should have a big play for 3 or 4 units posted up by the end of the week, the game is being played on Saturday. I won't blame anyone who lost faith in my college capping after last Saturday but we'll get it back this week, and then some.
Michfan15 PM Michfan15
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Posted: 9/7/2017 11:46:50 PM
Gl bro
dcgmt PM dcgmt
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Posted: 9/8/2017 7:10:31 AM
GL PhillyBrown
MikeMed PM MikeMed
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Posted: 9/8/2017 7:49:37 AM
Nice looking card


No doubt you will bounce back strong - you're too good not to.


Good luck Philly
bonfire69 PM bonfire69
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Posted: 9/8/2017 11:08:35 AM
naenaeb PM naenaeb
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Posted: 9/8/2017 12:24:58 PM
any picks on tonite games?
wmi799 PM wmi799
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Posted: 9/8/2017 12:30:22 PM
Good luck! 
YesIKnow1212 PM YesIKnow1212
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Posted: 9/8/2017 12:34:47 PM
Philly  you working tonight? Purdue vs Ohio,  Ok St.vs S.al
PhillyBrown PM PhillyBrown
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Posted: 9/8/2017 2:53:55 PM
I'll have a pick or two for tonite in a separate thread shortly
finsterbaby PM finsterbaby
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Posted: 9/8/2017 3:18:43 PM
Gl PB
PhillyBrown PM PhillyBrown
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Posted: 9/8/2017 4:30:27 PM
Adding another play but this isn't the big one, just another 1 unit play.

Louisville -9.5

Both Louisville and UNC overlooked their opponent coming in last week and UNC lost to freaking Cal who has no defense. Both the ville and UNC lost a lot of players but UNC lost more and it showed. They couldn't stop Cal and were bad against the run like they were last year. They should have had that game but one penalty on a 3rd and long turned the game, they had the stop and a guy hit the QB late and got kicked out and they scored on the next play.

Louisville was sloppy last week and they were sloppy last year too but I expect them to really focus on cleaning that up because they have a huge revenge game against Clemson next week. One thing they were able to do was play decent against the run last week and UNC won't put up points like they did vs Cal, Cal had one of the worst defenses in the year last year. Surratt is nowhere near the talent of L Jackson and he doesn't have many weapons either.

UNC's defense had no picks last year and I said I thought that would change last week vs a rookie QB in his first game and I was right, they did get one. But Jackson didn't throw any last week and while he did fumble (which was the Cardinals problem last year) I think if they just clean that up they should rout UNC.

UNC couldn't stop that rookie QB or Cal's RBs how will they handle Louisvilles offense. Louisville obviously overlooked Purdue with ACC starting this week and Clemson next week. This game they can't lose or the Clemson game is meaningless and they will be looking to clean up the mistakes. I don't know what UNC can do if they aren't able to beat Cal I don't see them staying within 10 of Louisville unless Louisville makes mistakes again.
PhillyBrown PM PhillyBrown
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Posted: 9/8/2017 4:58:50 PM
Okay, my top play for September in College goes Sat night and it fits perfectly with my redemption theme.

USC -5.5 for 3 units

Saw a lot of people posting Stanford as a play saying 'can't believe they're getting points, USC is overrated, etc.'

Well it would be easy to look at SC last week vs W Mich and say they were unimpressive. They started slow, they let W Mich hang around. I had the Trojans as I thought the Broncos would struggle to score without Davis and with a new QB and coach but they played well and still have good RBs and got the cover (Everything went wrong for me last week). 

But listen, the Trojans did still win by 18, it's not like they got a scare like Louisville or something. Another thing: in that game the Broncos ran a trick play pass back to the QB, a defender was right there and it should have been a pick6 but instead the QB got it (still don't know how) and went for a score. Without that 14 point swing the Trojans cover even though they didn't start great. Just saying.

USC was likely in a bit of a look ahead. This is one of the biggest games on their slate and they have double revenge and are at home. But that's not what this play is based on. It's based on 2 things.

1)In last year's loss, Stanford had Christian McCaffrey.
2) In last year's loss, USC didn't have Darnold starting.
This year both those things have changed and it will change the result of the game too.

I invite you to go back and look at the stats from that game last year. McCaffery had almost all of the Cardinal yards. They only completed 8 passes the whole game and even 3 of them were to McCaffrey. Bryce Love has been referred to by his coach as one of the most dynamic players in College football this year but he hasn't started vs a PAC-12 team on the road and he is definitely not as good as McCaffrey, if you watch that kid last year or in Carolina's preseason, he is just something really special. It's rare for RBs to get drafted high any more and for a white one to be drafted that high you know he had to be really good. He was Stanford's whole offense and he's gone.

Conversely, the Trojans didn't have Darnold in that game though he game in mop up duty and actually completed some passes was like 5-7 but the game was over by then. He then went on to dazzle and start the hype about being a high draft pick. He's very accurate, can move around, just has the look of a winner.

It's actually better for USC that they had a bit of trouble 1st half vs W Michigan as they can focus on cleaning stuff up. Stanford blowing out rice scoring 60-odd really doesn't give them any edge in preparing for Darnold.

Stanford's offense last year was completely reliant on their future NFL 1st rd pick. Now the Trojans have the NFL 1st rd talent to lean on and their coaching situation is finally settled.

Don't bite on that +5.5 thinking it's a gift, Stanford's new QB and new RB have to go into the Coliseum and keep pace with Darnold who trounced the best pass D in the Pac12 last year, Washington, who had 2 NFL drafted CBs. Stanford is going to get rolled through the air and won't be able to play their game of get a lead and grind it out with the run. USC still has some vulnerability against the run but I don't think Stanford will be able to outscore Darnold's team by only completing less than 10 passes like they did last year. Just feels like it's USC's turn this weekend after losing twice in a row to Stanford.

Just another note on week 2: I played both USC and NC St last weekend and lost, one thing I've learned over the years is sometimes you're just a bit unlucky with a team one week and you need to stick with them in those cases.
LABOOKIE PM LABOOKIE
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Posted: 9/8/2017 5:00:43 PM
BOL PHILLY 
playboy37 PM playboy37
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Posted: 9/8/2017 6:43:42 PM
Philly I agree with everything you said. I want the public to hammer Stanford to bring the line down . I appreciate you sharing your thoughts and opinion. I have Louisville also killing UNC , not so sure about nc state because south Carolina had half as many yds and still won . if our defense front 4 can get pressure then Marshall won't stand a chance .once again thanks and I'm going BIG ON USC
PhillyBrown PM PhillyBrown
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Posted: 9/8/2017 8:15:36 PM
I actually think NC St is the best play out of the 1 unit plays, Marshall is awful on offense and defense and I expect the Wolfpack to be in a very sour mood after losing that last game (refs screwed them and they screwed themselves too)

like you said NC St outgained SC, they wont have any difficulty scoring tomorrow and Marshall has pass protection issues I think the D line has a much better showing too.

LA_THE_KID PM LA_THE_KID
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Posted: 9/8/2017 10:24:57 PM
Philly I like the Louisville pick, I'm leaning more towards the over in that one but if you're gunna take one team the money is with Louisville and Jackson... BOL
PhillyBrown PM PhillyBrown
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Posted: 9/8/2017 11:37:39 PM
Changing the card a bit. I'm cancelling the Tulane play, and adding a 2 unit play which I can't believe I forgot about as I had it circled for a while but I guess I got caught up in capping the TNF game and the USC game..

Penn St -21 for 2 units
A revenge game for PSU who only lost to Pitt and Michigan last year and now all the Pitt players are gone, James Conner the RB, the QB Peterman, and other starters as well. Meanwhile PSU has Saquon Barkley and McSorley back and should be primed to pound Pitt at Happy Valley
PhillyBrown PM PhillyBrown
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Posted: 9/8/2017 11:43:37 PM
Also increasing the NC St play to 2 units.

Looking at that win vs Miami Ohio, Marshall was outgained majorly, by over 100 yards! That's crazy that they won, but it was because they got 7 points on an INT return and 7 on a kickoff return. They had 10 less first downs than Miami Ohio.

Combine that with NC St outgaining SC and losing this is a very solid play, an inside the stat loser who won playing an in the stats winner who lost. It's a big number but I'm willing to lay it especially with that D line who will be looking for redemption, just like myself, Penn St and USC.

Btw, Duke has revenge as well, and luckily I got that at +3.5 as it's now down to 2. The WR who torched Duke in the game last year is gone for Northwestern I think they can win this game, only outgained by 8 yards last year and with Austin Carr gone I think Duke gets the W
PhillyBrown PM PhillyBrown
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Posted: 9/9/2017 3:21:33 PM
2-0 start to redemption Saturday, with Duke never in doubt... Louisville still sloppy but they pulled out the win and cover.

combined with 1-0 last night and KC on thurs im on a roll now after getting killed last saturday, hopefully it continues.

gonna add the tulane play back in, and also oklahoma +6.5. Just want some dogs to balance things out.

So for the rest of the day we have
Tulane +10
Oklahoma +6.5
Penn St -21 2 units
NC State -23
USC 3 units
Wash St 2 units
straight_cash PM straight_cash
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Posted: 9/9/2017 3:28:54 PM
BOL Philly 
finsterbaby PM finsterbaby
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Posted: 9/9/2017 4:04:48 PM
good start PB, keep it Rollin!!!
monkeebooger PM monkeebooger
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Posted: 9/10/2017 1:17:08 AM
Love you buddy. Thanks so much for sharing.

Looking forward to your NFL picks tomorrow!!! 
TeddyPad424 PM TeddyPad424
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Posted: 9/10/2017 10:07:18 AM
terrific job Philly, thanks for the picks.

looking forward to your NFL plays.
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