Including the Sat 26 Aug and 2nd of Sept here, likely won't be playing any of the midweek games as I'm going to avoid them as much as possible this year unless they would be a pick I would still make on Saturday. With so many midweek games and the time difference here in Ireland meaning 1:30 am starts it just takes up too much of your life and most of them in NCAAF are crappy MAC games anyway.
At the start of the year I like to go with teams that have continuity from last year in terms of coaches and key players, and against teams that have lost their best playmakers and are installing new schemes.
Sat. 26
USF -21 over SJSU
Now, both these teams have new coaches, but there is a big difference: San Jose St has a true rookie head coach while the Bulls have the experienced Charlie Strong. After shouldering so much of the blame for Texas underachieving I suspect he will make darn sure he doesn't leave anything to chance vs a team like SJ St who was extremely bad last year.
And USF's coach wasn't replaced due to lack of success, he left because he was so successful that he got offered the job at Oregon. The offensive coordinator who filled in for their Birmingham Bowl win over SC is still there so they will have the same scheme on offense, an offense that tended to score in the 40s or 50s more often than not.
SJ St on the other hand had O ranked 113th in the nation in yards per play while USF was top 5. USF lost star RB Marlon Mack to the pros but returns the dynamic QB Flowers and he has his WRs back. With the spread this high I don't mind them losing the RB as we want more passing to cover.
Again, SJ St has the opposite situation. They have 3 redshirt guys with no experience and one guy who played in 2 games. On an offense that was already bad, it's going to be tough for them to stay within 3 scores in week 1.
Both teams had bad defenses, but again, SJ St was extremely bad, ranked 102nd in opponent yards per play while USF was 80th. And now SJ St is changing to a 3-4. To play your first game in a new scheme against an offense like USFs is asking a lot.
Also, SJ St's O-line allowed the most sacks in their conference last year. So that is going to help the defense of USF a lot more than the inexperienced QB for SJ St. And with their offense already having been one of the most inept in the league, they just aren't equipped to take advantage of a weak defense, while USF certainly is.
These kind of situations are the only time I will lay these big numbers. My picks for Sept 2 including my best bet to come, stay tuned.