Week 1 - Locked in

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Author: [College Football] Topic: Week 1 - Locked in
MikeMed PM MikeMed
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Posted: 7/16/2017 1:58:30 AM
Texas -16.5 VS Maryland                      3U

TEX will play up to their talent level on "D" this season...They are very athletic and are returning 10 starters on this side of the ball...Maryland has a new QB and while they were able to run the ball well at times last season they struggled to against quality teams...The Longhorn O-Line is among the best in the country coming in and will dominate against the Maryland D....They will be able to run the ball at will in this game...QB Buechele had a good FR year and should be very efficient this game as the passing game should be opened up by the run.....I think Tom Herman makes a big statement to open the season with a lopsided win against a Maryland team who will be outmanned on the road..

TEX      42
MARY  13

Cent Mich. - 24.5 VS  Rhode Island.     1`U

Rhode Island is an awful FCS team.......They lost to Kansas by 7 TDS and were beat down a lot last year....Just 2-9 and I dont see them getting much better.....

C Mich is a very average but capable team....They will be improved on "D" this season and have a strong O-line coming in........QB is a ? but whoever he is will have pieces around him.......I dont think C-MICH is a top tier MAC team but in this game I dont see R.I moving the ball much and C-MICH should easily put up 40+

CM 45
RI   10

MikeMed PM MikeMed
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Posted: 7/16/2017 2:00:03 AM
N Dakota +26.5  @ Utah                        1U

UND is a top 10 FCS team and are no pushover..........I believe Utah takes a huge step back.........They have lost a crazy amount of talent.....They will have their worst O-Line in several years coming in....They have a system QB in Troy Williams who cannot take over games with his arm......On "D" they lose 3 solid DB's and their best 2 pass rushers....They will go from winning 9 games to winning 5 or 6 tops....

Utah  33
UND  14

Notre Dame -15 VS Temple

An argument could be made that Temple will have the highest win drop-off than any team in the country.....Also an argument could be made ND could be the most improved team in the nation....I think Notre Dame is better at every position this year while Temple will be worse at every position.....I like the Irish to be better in every aspect....Although Temple has 3 solid DB's coming back they will be worse because of the pass rushers they lost... I think the Temple "O" will have their hands full breaking in their FR QB and new offense against an experienced and athletic defense...

ND         38
Temple   17  
LonghornHoosier PM LonghornHoosier
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Posted: 7/16/2017 2:42:10 AM
Love the Texas and N. Dame picks...I will be on them as well...on the merits...
steponaduck PM steponaduck
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Posted: 7/16/2017 9:21:48 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by LonghornHoosier:

Love the Texas and N. Dame picks...I will be on them as well...on the merits...

We know there has never been a fave you didn't like. Lol
DoubleUp4Life PM DoubleUp4Life
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Posted: 7/16/2017 10:01:22 AM
Great looking Card Brother

I am with you on Notre Dame 


BEST OF LUCK / ENJOY YOUR SUMMER 
LonghornHoosier PM LonghornHoosier
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Posted: 7/16/2017 10:14:47 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by steponaduck:


We know there has never been a fave you didn't like. Lol

you just keep doing whatever it is that you do...we'll compare notes in December...
LonghornHoosier PM LonghornHoosier
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Posted: 7/16/2017 3:00:24 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by steponaduck:


We know there has never been a fave you didn't like. Lol

I can take your dig, but its jerks like you, who make unsubstantiated criticism, who don't contribute much to discussions on covers, who lower the quality of this forum.     You should focus more on your own capping endeavors...
MikeMed PM MikeMed
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Posted: 8/11/2017 7:55:51 PM
Texas         - 16.5  VS Maryland     3U
C. Mich.      -24.5  VS  R.I.             1U -120
N. Dakota   +26.5 @  Utah            1U -120
Notre Dame -15    VS  Temple       1U

Add

Troy            -12   @ Boise ST        1U   

BSU loses 6 of 7 top tacklers on "D",  they lose key pieces on O-Line and star RB McNichols - lots of questions mark for BSU coming in......Troy had a great 10 win season... Nothing indicates any kind of decline. They went toe to toe with Clemson last season - only losing by 6 nearly matching them yard for yard... They will be even better on offense this season with a more EXP. group on the O-line.......Teams too evenly matched for a double digit spread....

AZ ST      -24     VS  NM ST          1U

Was hoping this line would come down to 24 and it did.........NM ST has given up 50+ points in 11 of last 25 games.....HC Coach Doug Martin has not had a winning season in 12 years of FBS coaching....This is just a awful team who were lucky to win 3 games last season.......I like the hire of D.C. Phil Bennett for AZ ST......He did a god job over at Baylor against those high powered BIG 12 Offenses.......Todd Graham knows this is a do or die season for him and will come out strong.......I like AZ ST big.. 

Good luck fellas



 

MikeMed PM MikeMed
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Posted: 8/11/2017 8:54:33 PM
Troy +12    not -12
steponaduck PM steponaduck
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Posted: 8/11/2017 10:40:01 PM
Like many of these. Do NOT like AZ state. Think NMST keeps this closer than the spread. 
jordyn31 PM jordyn31
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Posted: 8/12/2017 7:23:35 AM
I have 10 picks for week 1 and Texas and Notre Dame are 2 of my 3 highest unit plays

I will be posting soon

GL
Pecador PM Pecador
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Posted: 8/12/2017 8:33:42 AM
M Med,    The only one I'm on is that N. Dak. +26.5.

That C. Mich. -24.5 has tempted me since it came out.  I follow the Southland Conference in the FCS and the top teams could handle R.I.


Stay Hard,   Doc



jordyn31 PM jordyn31
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Posted: 8/12/2017 6:53:19 PM
I also like the Troy plus 12

We seem to be on the same wave length

bookieassassin PM bookieassassin
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Posted: 8/13/2017 12:45:38 AM
looks like a winning card to me.....BOL..........
  *  been staring at that N Dakota for awhile 
jordyn31 PM jordyn31
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Posted: 8/13/2017 8:38:06 AM
I changed my pick to Boise-12

I;m still with you on Notre Dame and Texas

GL


MikeMed PM MikeMed
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Posted: 8/13/2017 10:26:50 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Pecador:

M Med,    The only one I'm on is that N. Dak. +26.5.

That C. Mich. -24.5 has tempted me since it came out.  I follow the Southland Conference in the FCS and the top teams could handle R.I.


Stay Hard,   Doc


For sure, RI a weak team in any CONF...   Took lots of beatdowns............

Good luck Doc



MikeMed PM MikeMed
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Posted: 8/13/2017 10:37:57 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by bookieassassin:

looks like a winning card to me.....BOL..........
  *  been staring at that N Dakota for awhile 



UND very strong FCS team..........Have to believe on some level Utah is looking ahead at their in-state rival BYU......

Good Luck BA
MikeMed PM MikeMed
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Posted: 8/13/2017 10:50:58 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by jordyn31:

I have 10 picks for week 1 and Texas and Notre Dame are 2 of my 3 highest unit plays

I will be posting soon

GL



Texas is my strongest play in the opening week.....They are just too strong for Maryland.....TEX will rush for over 300 YDS here I think and this game could be a complete blowout......I think Coach Tom Herman makes a huge statement in his debut.
The Hawk PM The Hawk
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Posted: 8/13/2017 6:13:30 PM
Arizona State "defense" is a real problem, that, I don't know can be fixed by just one new DC. But, there's always hope, I guess.

After ranking 99th out of 128 schools, they really applied themselves, and managed to zoom up to 124th last year, giving up 39.8 a game. 42.4 in Pac-12 play. Last in Pac-12 pass defense, giving up 350 ypg. Utah was next at 289.6. So, they were bad by a healthy margin! My theory is that they literally played with one hand behind their back.

They gave 50 three times, and 49 to Utah. Christ, they had to come from behind to beat UTSA 32-28! 

The only saving grace for this pathetic team is that Cal, Arizona, and Oregon all had worse defenses (in Pac-12).

The picture doesn't get much better on offense They had two conference wins. Beating UCLA 23-20 (Bruins came through with four fumbles) and Cal 51-41 (which, statistically, counts as one of their better defensive efforts)

In Pac-12 play, forget a 1000 yard rusher. They had 796 yards rushing. That's Total. 11th out of 12. Last in Yard Per Play at 4.7 (the only Pac-12 team under 5.4). Last in YPG. One touchdown out of being last in touchdowns! And, what should have got Graham fired, lost to DilRod's in-state rival, Arizona, by a score 56-35!

Think on that. You score five touchdowns, and lose by 21, to a (then) 2-win team!

Sorry to ramble, but this is what happens when I take my laptop to my bar, watching the PGA, and drinking Jameson Caskmates (Stout Edition-aged in beer barrels)


MikeMed PM MikeMed
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Posted: 8/13/2017 7:00:00 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by The Hawk:

Arizona State "defense" is a real problem, that, I don't know can be fixed by just one new DC. But, there's always hope, I guess.

After ranking 99th out of 128 schools, they really applied themselves, and managed to zoom up to 124th last year, giving up 39.8 a game. 42.4 in Pac-12 play. Last in Pac-12 pass defense, giving up 350 ypg. Utah was next at 289.6. So, they were bad by a healthy margin! My theory is that they literally played with one hand behind their back.

They gave 50 three times, and 49 to Utah. Christ, they had to come from behind to beat UTSA 32-28! 

The only saving grace for this pathetic team is that Cal, Arizona, and Oregon all had worse defenses (in Pac-12).

The picture doesn't get much better on offense They had two conference wins. Beating UCLA 23-20 (Bruins came through with four fumbles) and Cal 51-41 (which, statistically, counts as one of their better defensive efforts)

In Pac-12 play, forget a 1000 yard rusher. They had 796 yards rushing. That's Total. 11th out of 12. Last in Yard Per Play at 4.7 (the only Pac-12 team under 5.4). Last in YPG. One touchdown out of being last in touchdowns! And, what should have got Graham fired, lost to DilRod's in-state rival, Arizona, by a score 56-35!

Think on that. You score five touchdowns, and lose by 21, to a (then) 2-win team!

Sorry to ramble, but this is what happens when I take my laptop to my bar, watching the PGA, and drinking Jameson Caskmates (Stout Edition-aged in beer barrels)




AHH   Love the Jameson


Im not nor can I argue the fact that AZST was horrible last season on the defensive side.....Especially towards the end of the season.....As bad as they were last season - New Mex St is on a different level of bad.....They are giving up similar numbers to non power 5 programs......just think their is motivation here for HC Graham to come out strong here - he has  talent and has done it before......The new D.C had some really strong defenses at Baylor who shut down top notch offenses like the PAC has to offer.........I dont like AZ ST to contend in the PAC though - I just like them to beat up on one of the worst FBS teams in worst conference.....

Just like AZ ST in this particular spot......They can and probably will suck after they cover this spread for me.
The Hawk PM The Hawk
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Posted: 8/14/2017 8:50:01 AM
Nothing but Luck to you, Med, but I just can't bet even bet one unit on a defense that bad. They did cover 27 last year against Northern Arizona, 44-13..........
QBoption PM QBoption
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Posted: 8/20/2017 3:39:57 PM
BOL this year mike... looks like a good start....

i like Troy, ND, and i think i see the light on Tex...
blowoutgm PM blowoutgm
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Posted: 8/21/2017 12:45:55 AM
Mike- 

Nice picks- I am leaning Troy as well but still trying to find out more info on that game- I haven't looked at the Utah game yet but that does seem like a lot of points- however I need to cap that one - thanks for bringing that to my attention!!! That Arizona St. line looks good but I can't bring myself to bet on a lot of those Pac 10 teams- especially one coached by Todd Graham- I can't stand the guy! lol! Best of luck this year!
MikeMed PM MikeMed
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Posted: 8/21/2017 7:51:07 PM


ADD ON

Wisconsin / Utah ST  OVER 48.5

Badgers may put up 48 themselves

I dont expect the UT ST offense to do a whole lot of damage to the Badger defense but with what Wisconsin has lost on that side of the ball it would not surprise me......This team has lost a lot of playmakers...There 2 best pass rushers TJ Watt and Vince Biegel they lost to the draft - 2 best players in the secondary Musso and Shelton also gone. Also lost defensive leader Jack Cichy to injury........They will still be a good unit but will take a decent size step back.

On Offense they are much better this season and I think they put up 40+ here.......The badgers have 4 returning starters on an O-Line that averages 6'6 320......They have traditionally been a good running team but this season they will be better yet...They broke in FR QB Hornibrook who became more efficient as the season went on........They have a lot of talent on offense including TE Troy Fumagalli who may be the best in the CONF.

UT ST has only 5 returning starters on defense and have ??? marks there..... WI offense should over power them and roll

Not comfortable taking WIS -28 as I really think that WI may struggle a bit finding their identity early.





MikeMed PM MikeMed
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Posted: 8/21/2017 10:34:18 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by blowoutgm:

Mike- 

Nice picks- I am leaning Troy as well but still trying to find out more info on that game- I haven't looked at the Utah game yet but that does seem like a lot of points- however I need to cap that one - thanks for bringing that to my attention!!! That Arizona St. line looks good but I can't bring myself to bet on a lot of those Pac 10 teams- especially one coached by Todd Graham- I can't stand the guy! lol! Best of luck this year! 




I was fortunate to get North Dakota at +26.5   VS Utah...........Line down to 22 but still value above 21 IMO..............I really think that BSU/Troy line will slip fast too.....Better get it while its above 10 while you can.

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