South Florida at San Jose State

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Author: [College Football] Topic: South Florida at San Jose State
alopez14325 PM alopez14325
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Posted: 7/11/2017 10:37:38 PM
 I decided to look at this game a little closer since it's been brought up, and I think i've talked myself into taking USF -21.  San Jose State went 4-8 last season, with a 3-5 conference record.  The Spartans have hired Brent Brown, the Oregon State Offensive Coordinator and are installing the air raid offense.  Not only will the system be different, but SJSU will be trying to replace several key players.  The most noticable loss will be QB Kenny Potter who has started every game for the past two seasons.  Offensively, they will also have to replace leading WR Tim Crawley, All MWC TE Billy Freeman, and All MWC WR Tyler Winston.  Defensively, SJSU will need to replace two All conference Dlineman, and star LB Christian Tago.  

San Jose State is returning 4/5 starting offensive lineman, but the strength of their team is their secondary.  They're returning the entire secondary, including Andre Chachere who had 4 int's and 14 PBU.  The other CB is a transfer from Washington, who had 24 tackles and 5 PBU's, both safeties have been productive.  Maurice McKnight finished 3rd in tackles, with 68 tkls 2 int's and 2 FF, finally FS Treveon Bierra finished with 54 tackles, 2 int's and 6 pbu's.  Unfortunately, for SJSU they will be playing the 5th best rushing offense in the country.  This is a defense that allowed 34.6 points a game (100th) which is an astronomical number when you account for the offenses they played. 

alopez14325 PM alopez14325
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Posted: 7/11/2017 10:38:01 PM
Key Statistics:

Sacks Allowed- SJSU- 50 (127th)  USF- 15 (14th)
Sacks-USF  31 (40th)  SJSU- 24 (68th)

Turnover Margin: SJSU  -0.6 (110th)  USF +0.6 (18th)
Rush Defense- SJSU 248 YPG (124th) 5.5 YPC (117th)
USF 202 YPG (82nd) 4.7 YPC (74)

Rush Offense- SJSU 132.2 YPG (103rd) 3.5 YPC (117th)
USF 291.6 YPG (5th)  6.7 YPC (1st)

Red Zone Offense- SJSU 76% (108)  USF 85% (59)
Red Zone Defense- SJSU 93.7% (122nd) USF 83% (62)

South Florida has a dynamic offense, which everybody already knows so there's no need to spend anytime on that.  The only thing il say is that if people think they will be worse because they lost Marlon Mack and Rodney Adams, they already have two very good players replacing them. D'ernest Johnson will fill in at RB and Marquez Valdez-Scandling is a 6'5 215lbs WR and preseason ALL AAC.  There is really no way for a team like SJSU to stop Marquis Flowers

Defensively, USF really struggled last season, but they're returning all but two starters.  Their entire defensive line is back, as well as their entire secondary.  The USF defense is returning 18 of 22 rotational defenders, and they were better than their stats indicated last season.  They're returning two all conference Defensive lineman, and a total of 10 players that had a TFL in 2016, this could bode well against SJSU who gave up a pitiful 85 TFL during the 2016 season.  That's 8.42 a game.  Bryce Hector, Kirk Livingston, and Dedrin Sweat should dominate the LOS, and keep their leading tackler and 2016 ALL AAC LB, Augie Sanchez clean.  If the front 7 is able to apply pressure, they should be able to get a few turnovers. A secondary that created 26 Turnovers, good for 18th in the country, will all be back and excited to play SJSU...

San Jose State's projected starting QB is Josh Love, in spot duty he went 31/60 51% completion percentage, for 392 yards with 2 TD, and 5 Int's and 10 sacks. 

I honestly just dont see a scenario where this team will be able to keep pace.  The addition of Charlie Strong should only help this defense, which actually has a better depth chart than I originally thought.  

alopez14325 PM alopez14325
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Posted: 7/11/2017 10:46:09 PM
SJSU is 0-3 ATS in Non Conference game With Margin of defeat -20.3...

Since 2014:
 USF is 23-14 ATS in Non conference games
SJSU 16-20 ATS vs non conference games

USF was 3-2 ATS LY as Road Favorite 10pt Margin of Victory
SJSU is 5-6 ATS as home dog

SJSU had a -14 Margin of defeat LY at Home
SJSU Away had 19.1 Margin of defeat Away


LonghornHoosier PM LonghornHoosier
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Posted: 7/12/2017 2:30:18 AM
alopez - good analysis - it will be a np for me.   I don't trust coach strong on the road.   attention to detail was not his forte at Texas.    I think USF is talented and they will have a successful season.   USF ATS backing is wait and see for me, at least for a couple of weeks.  thanks again.   if you like, please send me a friend request via covers and we can discreetly discuss matchups during the college football season.  Have a great day!  LonghornHoosier  
MikeMed PM MikeMed
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Posted: 7/12/2017 2:38:19 AM
Solid stuff and everything points to S.F. being the much better team....But its hard to bet on them here as they are traveling cross country to face a 21 PT home dog in the season opener....No play for me.

Good luck 
wizardofroz PM wizardofroz
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Posted: 7/12/2017 3:19:49 AM
Charlie Wrong will put the final nail in the coffin of the USF football program, like Skip Holtz almost did, before Willie Taggart saved the program.
alopez14325 PM alopez14325
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Posted: 7/12/2017 7:45:49 AM
Yea I dont blame people for passing, there's really no way to guage how SJSU will look during their home opener, with an air raid offense, new HC, and QB... There are just a few things that I cant get past though, mainly that the SJSU offense had the worst Oline in CFB last year, and that was with their senior QB.  The Spartans play in a division where their opponents run the ball 75% of the time, but somehow they gave up 50 sacks.  Conversely Flowers was only sacked 14 times.  
I really dont see SJSU being able to move the ball, because not only do they have the worst OLine in CFB, they only averaged 3.5 YPC, and their QB was pitiful, 2 Td's 5 int's and 10 sacks... 

The biggest issue, I see is that the SJSU defense finished 124th in Rushing defense, and  USF finised 1st in rushing offense.  Since then, SJSU has lost 2 of their best DLineman and their best MLB...


scalabrine PM scalabrine
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Posted: 7/12/2017 8:51:24 AM
Excellent write-up and if you have to justify laying 21 you certainly have done so.

Having said that I can't lay the number for a few reasons:

1) If the USF defense struggled so much last year, do we really want them all returning?
2) As noted above, Strong does not pay attention to detail. I have a sinking feeling he'll let this number get backdoored against an air raid offense. All the pressure and national attentions is on USF and Strong here which isn't a bonus.
3) USF will play it ground and pound against this secondary and they'll be successful. But that offense is a) a clock-eater and b) one or two turnovers later, this spread looks mighty large to get over.

I'm almost certain this number was once 16-17. 21 makes things far diceier.
DoubleUp4Life PM DoubleUp4Life
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Posted: 7/12/2017 9:45:24 AM
Won a bunch of $$$ on USF last year ....

Taggart is the real deal , Believe he will have HUGE SUCCESS in EUGENE .....

Not sure about Charlie Strong although this squad is loaded, he would really have to mess up for them NOT to win their Division  ....


Odds makers seem sharp to me,   LONG TRIP across the country and the line appears where it should be .....I am seeing 20 on 5 d this morning .... 

Maybe if u like USF , the TEAM TOTAL  OVER might be the " safer" play when released 

Often worry about some of this NON conference games that the better team goes into a shell or gets bored when winning by 3+ scores in the 2nd half ... 

Sure the BULLS could win by 40+ , but the BACK DOOR looks almost gaping to me 



BEST OF LUCK BROTHER ... 
alopez14325 PM alopez14325
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Posted: 7/12/2017 10:30:01 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by scalabrine:

Excellent write-up and if you have to justify laying 21 you certainly have done so.

Having said that I can't lay the number for a few reasons:

1) If the USF defense struggled so much last year, do we really want them all returning?
2) As noted above, Strong does not pay attention to detail. I have a sinking feeling he'll let this number get backdoored against an air raid offense. All the pressure and national attentions is on USF and Strong here which isn't a bonus.
3) USF will play it ground and pound against this secondary and they'll be successful. But that offense is a) a clock-eater and b) one or two turnovers later, this spread looks mighty large to get over.

I'm almost certain this number was once 16-17. 21 makes things far diceier.

Yea I agree it's never great to lay 20 on the road, and the change to the air raid could lead to some points, but this SJSU team is worse than they were last year.  They ranked 112 in Defensive passer efficiency, so not only are they the worst against the run in the country, but they cant stop the pass either.  SJSU went 3 and out more than all but 6 FBS teams, which should mean extra possessions for USF.  USF also had multiple "explosive plays" Their average scoring drive was under 2 minutes, and they scored on pick 6, KR TD, 90 yard passes, and 90 yard passes. 

I;m not going to put a ton on USF, but imo it's likely that SJSU finishes last in the MWC, especially if their QB is bad as he showed, but until we see them with their new HC/ offense/ and QB it's total speculation.  I could just as easily see a situation where a few weeks later it seems crazy that USF wasnt favored by at least 34... 

Next up: NC ST South Carolina, Northwestern/Nevada Florida/Michigan Bama/FSU Georgia/ND and Clemson/Auburn
LonghornHoosier PM LonghornHoosier
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Posted: 7/12/2017 1:29:28 PM
ALopez - for the reasons that you have identified, is exactly why I will fade SJSU on September 9, 2017 when they take on my Texas Longhorns in Austin.    Yes, its a homer play, but this Texas team has always had top 10, top 15 type talent, just an entitlement attitude under Brown or confusion under Strong.   I think Herman and his staff will have this team at least at a competent level early (they are definitely not ready to take on Alabama, FSU, tOUU or Michigan right now).   Now, that game (Texas v. SJSU) will be a complete mismatch.  Yes, there is a USC look ahead for Texas, but I don't think that will matter.  I have Texas -29 and its currently in my top 3.     BookieAssasin seems to think Texas will either upset or cover against USC in Week 3.  I am not so sure, though I think it will be a good game...
alopez14325 PM alopez14325
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Posted: 7/12/2017 7:19:24 PM
I like Texas a lot, the longhorns, and Notre Dame are two teams that will show significant improvement.... 

Do you look at second win shares?  Basically, after the game somebody goes back through the game and gives a % grade on how often that team shouldve won or lost that game.  For example, Notre Dame should have beat Navy 78% of the time.... It's basically a way to quantify luck into a teams record..

Notre Dame won 4 games, but accoridging to the second win share, they should have finished 8-4 rather than 4-8
firesox PM firesox
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Posted: 7/13/2017 8:17:39 PM
This the kind of game quinton flowers can run rampant and establish some early heisman highlights. wouldnt bet them with charlie strong in the first game i need to see his impact before laying that. 
firesox PM firesox
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Posted: 7/13/2017 8:19:51 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by wizardofroz:

Charlie Wrong will put the final nail in the coffin of the USF football program, like Skip Holtz almost did, before Willie Taggart saved the program.

lol wouldnt go that far but it is a HUGE step down in quality imo. strong is washed up as a coach. as long as quinton flowers is on the field it wont matter though
alopez14325 PM alopez14325
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Posted: 7/14/2017 3:24:03 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by firesox:


lol wouldnt go that far but it is a HUGE step down in quality imo. strong is washed up as a coach. as long as quinton flowers is on the field it wont matter though

I agree, there are several reasons why I could see SJSU covering the 20... It's suspicious that the spread opened at 25 and went down to 20, but after doing some research and seeing that this is a terrible match up for SJSU, I went back and watched full South Florida games, and it;s inconceivable to think that SJSU will be able to stop the USF offense.  Flowers makes good defenses look like high school squads, what is he going to do against the worst run defense in the FBS?  Flowers is capable of rushing for 200 yards even if SJSU comes up with a perfect game plan, the talent discrepancy is just too significant... 

The fact that this is the home opener in San Jose, actually makes me feel more confident.  The scheduling benefits USF IMO... Because this is the 1st game of the season, USF will have plenty of extra time to travel and adjust to San Jose, and since they play Stony Brook in week 2, SJSU should get their full attention.  It's not like USF has to travel to San Jose after a short week, they should be in peak physical condition.. With this being a nationally televised season opener, the entire team/coaching staff will take the game much more seriously.  USF knows they're getting top 25 consideration, Flowers has Heisman aspirations, and Charlie Strong has a lot to prove, after being fired by Texas... 

The only way I could see this game being close is if 1. USF turns the ball over multiple times, and SJSU doesnt have a TO.., or 2 SJSU is able to score at will, and carves up the USF defense.  This is possible, but not likely when you consider SJSU has the worst offensive line in CFB.  The only stat that contributes to turnovers is QB pressure's, and since SJSU led the nation in Sacks allowed TFL allowed, and hurries.  This is an offense that ranked 116th in points per game, which makes sense considering, every 12.06% of their offensive snaps were sacks, 23.1% of their snaps were tackles for a loss, and 4.29% of their snaps were an interception being thrown... This team was really bad, but they got WORSE, offensively they lost their best Olineman, their All Conference TE,  their #1 WR, and their QB.  Their new QB could legitimately be the worst QB in CFB. 31/60 2TD's 5 Int's and 10 sacks.. 

They have the worst rush defense in CFB, and unfortunately USF ranked 1st in rushing offense.  In one of the CFB preview magazines they ranked the SJSU Head coach as the worst HC in the nation.  He was a WR coach for Oregon State... SJSU has lost 12 consecutive non conference games, last year they lost 44-10 to Iowa State and 45-10 at Tulsa.  Other than their 66-35 Win vs Portland St, SJSU was 1-2 plays from losing every game in 2016.

Final point: Teams with a 1st time HC, New offensive and defensive schemes, and a new QB are unbelievably bad ATS in the first 4 weeks of the season... With the new NCAA rules regarding practice time, they wont have much time to teach every position group their role by August 26th... 
UNIMAN PM UNIMAN
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Posted: 7/15/2017 12:00:13 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by alopez14325:

 


Final point: Teams with a 1st time HC, New offensive and defensive schemes, and a new QB are unbelievably bad ATS in the first 4 weeks of the season... With the new NCAA rules regarding practice time, they wont have much time to teach every position group their role by August 26th... 

Certainly agree here. New (FIRST TIME) HC, OC, DC, and QB.

Going tempo. All this says major growing pains for both players and coaches.


USF has new HC,OC, and DC. But they have a QB and lot returning talent. The OC, Sterlin Gilbert, comes from that "Baylor Tree". Taggert used Baylor style in his offense. This transition should be much smoother.

USF has Stoney Brook on deck, no look ahead here.
I'll be playing this one. USF -20.
LonghornHoosier PM LonghornHoosier
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Posted: 7/15/2017 2:13:02 PM
Plus they had all spring to implement the schemes...if USF were playing a well coached and talented team, with multiple years at the school, then the historical ATS metric would apply.  Since SJSU is also breaking in new schemes, it becomes talent v. talent, coaches v. coaches...the only thing SJSU has going for it is home field, and I doubt they will pack the house, even for this matchup...Still a NP for me, but after the debacle at Texas and with the talent Taggert left Strong, Strong will want to show the USF Alumni and college football watching world that everything is ok...I am starting to like the USF -20...But, I will pass and wait until my Longhorns get a crack at them in week 2 at home in Austin as a -28 fave, under similar circumstances...
alopez14325 PM alopez14325
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Posted: 7/16/2017 5:33:55 PM
The only way I see SJSU covering this spread is if somehow their offense looks completely different and thrive with the air raid... Tempo can hide a lot of weaknesses.  SJSU biggest weakness was that they couldnt protect the QB, they were pressured, which lead to a ton of Sacks, FF, and INT's... If the QB can get the ball out in 2 seconds, and they run a play every 15-18 seconds, the DLine wont be able to get much pressure.  Just recently Syracuse and Missouri became much more potent offenses by going to the air raid, but that still typically takes a year or two, to bring in the right players, and teach the systems... During the spring game their QB's didnt seem to really master the offense.  

The presumtive starting QB Josh Love was 7-12 46 yards 0td 0int
Back up went 6/13 for 202 yards and a TD (but that included a 95 yard TD.  Without that pass were talking 6/13 107 yards, 
Sam Allen went 4/7 for 18 yards...

We'll learn a lot about SJSU in the opener, but at the moment I think it's fair to say they're the worst team in the Mountain West...I also think the South Florida defense will be a better unit than last season
Greengrass PM Greengrass
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Posted: 7/20/2017 10:36:26 AM
[Quote: Originally Posted by MikeMed] Solid stuff and everything points to S.F. being the much better team....But its hard to bet on them here as they are traveling cross country to face a 21 PT home dog in the season opener....No play for me.

Good luck 

San Jose has a new coach also...but the play here is San Jose...best of luck gentlemen
scalabrine PM scalabrine
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Posted: 7/20/2017 12:46:24 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by alopez14325:


Yea I agree it's never great to lay 20 on the road, and the change to the air raid could lead to some points, but this SJSU team is worse than they were last year.  They ranked 112 in Defensive passer efficiency, so not only are they the worst against the run in the country, but they cant stop the pass either.  SJSU went 3 and out more than all but 6 FBS teams, which should mean extra possessions for USF.  USF also had multiple "explosive plays" Their average scoring drive was under 2 minutes, and they scored on pick 6, KR TD, 90 yard passes, and 90 yard passes. 

I;m not going to put a ton on USF, but imo it's likely that SJSU finishes last in the MWC, especially if their QB is bad as he showed, but until we see them with their new HC/ offense/ and QB it's total speculation.  I could just as easily see a situation where a few weeks later it seems crazy that USF wasnt favored by at least 34... 

Next up: NC ST South Carolina, Northwestern/Nevada Florida/Michigan Bama/FSU Georgia/ND and Clemson/Auburn

All well said. If you were a defense attorney, your client is well represented.


I did want to add one of their games last year occurred in a torrential downpour vs. Fresno State. They actually won the game but the offensive numbers on both sides of the ball, particularly passing were disgusting sending them down the ladder in the stats you noted (albeit, it was just one game but a throwaway game at that like ND vs. NC State in the Slip n Slide game).

It's just capping 101 for me: I can't lay 3 TD's on the road to a team waiting across the country (of both FBS).

But if it covers, I wouldn't be surprised and I wouldn't say given all your research that you shouldn't play it. I 

bookieassassin PM bookieassassin
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Posted: 7/20/2017 2:12:17 PM
fine work AL..........................


(apologies if this has already been said)

but......

KEY:

Tempo can hide a lot of weaknesses......



It also can EXPOSE weaknesses.....if you can't move the chains......you can get annihilated..........QUICKLY

  *D is back on the field (MUCH) too soon...even if better conditioned....lack of depth can be a huge issue

  * it will take the O time to adjust as well.....especially OL

PROBLEM?.....we don't know if SJSU will STICK with the up-tempo...........INDEED....we have seen several teams (that to avoid a savage beating)....didn't play fast until later (like SMU.....seems like Hawaii did this vs Cal LY..?) 

$$  If SJSU plays fast from start to finish.....they should get destroyed.....if they decide to kill some clock.....esp 2H....might be closer than you think ..........

Keep in mind too......#1 explosive O in CFB LY? > USF 
  *  SJSU D was #106 vs explosive O's (preventing big plays / forcing teams to move the chains > be patient)    
  




bookieassassin PM bookieassassin
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Posted: 7/20/2017 2:21:51 PM
another 'worthless' trend...... from Playbook

As I've mentioned a few.....under Caragher....SJSU was an all or nothing team....in games they were supposed to win....they usually won....if not > they lost......this usually suggests weak coaching /  maybe weak line play as well....

$  The straight up winner (in SJSU games)....has COVERED the spread in 33 of last 37 games  
Lionmonster PM Lionmonster
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Posted: 7/20/2017 2:38:45 PM
Listened to local Bay Area sports talk radio, new HC was on and indeed said "We will run the BAYLOR offense against Sourh Florida"
Posted using a mobile device.
steponaduck PM steponaduck
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Posted: 7/20/2017 4:09:45 PM
I agree with longhorn. 

The time for fading Jose is when they travel to Texas. It's HOT. The atmosphere is rocking. And the horns flex their muscles. 

Jose might be quasi competitive in this 1st game. 

Would lean over in this week 1 tilt. 
JoniLove5Chachi PM JoniLove5Chachi
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Posted: 7/20/2017 4:43:45 PM
Solid write-up. I too also agree with Longhorn. BOL gentlemen 
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