WYO vs IOWA

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Author: [College Football] Topic: WYO vs IOWA
gmanusc2001 PM gmanusc2001
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Posted: 6/30/2017 10:03:09 AM
I'm leaning heavily on WYO here...NFL caliber QB and 8 returners on DEFENSE....IOWA lost starting QB and a few WRs......biggest loss for WYO was their standout RB hill.
IOWA struggles ATS in openers recently...line currently sits at +13 @ BO....any reason I should wait to catch 14+, or will this line just plummet down from here?
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Any and all responders welcome!
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teejy PM teejy
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Posted: 6/30/2017 1:04:36 PM
No play for me at +13. But I havent bought into the hype train for Josh Allen yet. Very talented? Yes. But seems to force things and rely on his talent too much at times which will be deadly vs good defenses, and IOWA will have a very good defense. 

IOWA offense will not be anything special but should have one of the best run blocking Olines in the big ten with an explosive running back to control the clock. Wyoming had a bad run defense last year and lost their nose tackle and 2 LBs. Iowa Oline averages about 304lbs Wyoming DL averages about 265lbs.

Close game going into 4th, can see Iowa wearing the cowboys down on the ground and covering with late TD. 

I will be looking very hard at the UNDER when its posted as well as 1H under. Iowa offense will be slow out of the gates with new OC with no play calling experience and minimal experience at WR = even more conservative than they normally are, if thats possible. 
MikeMed PM MikeMed
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Posted: 6/30/2017 2:13:43 PM
Yeah, Iowa just too much of a tough team to bet against here.....They should be able to run the ball at will.
RB Akrum Wadley AVG over 6 YPC last season and has an even more improved OL to run behind this season....

The defense has 8 returning and will be strong once again.....Remember Iowa beat Michigan and Nebraska at the end of last season holding them to a combined 23 points...

If Iowa gets any kind of production from their SO. QB this could be a blowout.

I like Wyoming in the MW CONF to be a good team...I think their "D" will be very strong and they may contend with SDST and Boise ST.

Wyoming lost to Nebraska 52 -17 last season and I just don't like them @ Iowa to begin the season
nmate2ooo2 PM nmate2ooo2
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Posted: 6/30/2017 2:52:12 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by MikeMed:

Yeah, Iowa just too much of a tough team to bet against here.....They should be able to run the ball at will.
RB Akrum Wadley AVG over 6 YPC last season and has an even more improved OL to run behind this season....

The defense has 8 returning and will be strong once again.....Remember Iowa beat Michigan and Nebraska at the end of last season holding them to a combined 23 points...

If Iowa gets any kind of production from their SO. QB this could be a blowout.

I like Wyoming in the MW CONF to be a good team...I think their "D" will be very strong and they may contend with SDST and Boise ST.

Wyoming lost to Nebraska 52 -17 last season and I just don't like them @ Iowa to begin the season

did you watch that wyoming vs nebraska game? guessing no.
gmanusc2001 PM gmanusc2001
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Posted: 6/30/2017 3:48:55 PM
Yea...not sure last year's game vs Neb is a great measuring stick...wyoming was coming off a triple OT game vs NIU that started 2 hours late and ended in the wee hours Sunday am....then they have to travel and play in Lincoln where they have 6 TOs.......IOWA has their arch rival on deck and ferentz has not been good ATS as a fav in home openers...if it climbs over 14 I'll take a shot on it
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MikeMed PM MikeMed
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Posted: 6/30/2017 4:07:31 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by nmate2ooo2:


did you watch that wyoming vs nebraska game? guessing no.


I did not...... A quick look shows that Nebraska totaled 550 YDS + their "D" picked off Josh Allen 5 times.

Was the game closer than what the final scoreboard shows? 
steponaduck PM steponaduck
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Posted: 6/30/2017 4:39:51 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by nmate2ooo2:


did you watch that wyoming vs nebraska game? guessing no.

 I'm guessing you did not watch the game either, considering it was a seven point game at the start of the fourth quarter
steponaduck PM steponaduck
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Posted: 6/30/2017 4:41:45 PM
I did watch that game, Wyoming had some very unfortunate breaks NOT go their way in the fourth quarter of the game
ljslavens11 PM ljslavens11
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Posted: 6/30/2017 5:01:04 PM
big hawkeye fan here, its true we got a lot of our D returning but only one returning secondary starter.Josh Allen seems like the type of guy to exploit that and if ferentz gets too conservative with the run game, then the hawks offense could get very predictable and will have to win through the air which will be hard with a lot of inexperienced WRs and a QB
ljslavens11 PM ljslavens11
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Posted: 6/30/2017 5:03:31 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ljslavens11:

big hawkeye fan here, its true we got a lot of our D returning but only one returning secondary starter.Josh Allen seems like the type of guy to exploit that and if ferentz gets too conservative with the run game, then the hawks offense could get very predictable and will have to win through the air which will be hard with a lot of inexperienced WRs and a QB

btw I dont bet on or against the hawks but Wyoming +13 seems like a good bet
MikeMed PM MikeMed
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Posted: 6/30/2017 5:27:00 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by steponaduck:


 I'm guessing you did not watch the game either, considering it was a seven point game at the start of the fourth quarter


Just went over the game........Nebraska led 17-0 then had a hard time converting YDS into points.......They had the ball to start the 4th QTR went down the field took a 14 pt lead then Wyoming fell apart completely............If you throw 5 picks and give up 550 YDS you will get blown out every time.....Just so happens 28 of their 52 points were scored in the 4th QTR.
bookieassassin PM bookieassassin
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Posted: 6/30/2017 9:59:34 PM
Reason to play this one?.......as usual not discussed

FERENTZ DOES NOT CARE ABOUT THESE EARLY NON-CONFERENCE GAMES
  *  covered 1/9......MISSING the cover by an average of 7 points/g
  
So.....1st look is to Wyoming
  * nice spot for THEM?.....do they play tough on the road?....play run well?.....tough game on deck?

Looking deeper into Wyoming LY....
  *QB / team plays well at home....weaker .> BAD on the road  (7-0 ATS home / 3-4 away) 

QB  57%  / 20TD - 5 INT /  161 PR at home
     * but 55% / 8-10  / 128 PR on road
       $$  vs actual tough D's?......52%......11 TD / 11 INT

NOTE:     this was WITH Hill / Wick....2214 yds.....and top 3 WR's (143 catches / 2455 yds)

Wyoming had one of nation's worst D's LY.....
  *#119 at 6.6/play.....453 /g..............on road 7.1/play....524/g
  only allowed 690 to NM......500 to EMich.....653 to mighty UNLV 
*** terrible vs the run.....5.3/204......BUT not too bad early in the year 
  *they do have a new DC and get 8 starters back

SO......looks risky....but it would be a shocker if Iowa blows them out here.....as Ferentz will ONLY want to come away with a boring / clean WIN.....incredibly vanilla game plan  >>   SMART

UNDER (total maybe inflated due to LY Wyo D / strong O)....maybe a great idea.......small play on Wyo not bad .....I might tease Wyo with the under ?..............
bookieassassin PM bookieassassin
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Posted: 6/30/2017 10:34:06 PM
Anybody wanna make this stuff easier?
  
Especially in these early games....AX yourself what is the mindset of each coach?...................

Here's whats great..............everybody (ignorantly) thinks all games are the same.......SURE some coaches prepare EACH week (pretty much) the same.....but many do not.....great ones never

HERE.....Ferentz has great job security.....has no desire to impress the fans/polls with a huge victory.....AND.... has a CLEAR history of treating these games as SCRIMMAGES ..essentially preparing his team for Big10 play..

BUT.....how about Bohl......after a terrible start.....won only 6 of 1st 24 games.....finally have some MO going.....is THIS game important for his program?.......why helll yeah it's HUGE 
  *only Gardiner-Webb on deck

SO.......technically 12 or so is correct.....but based on (above)
this one should be less than 10 IMO .....I would start at 10.....9' about right...............


nostradamus12 PM nostradamus12
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Posted: 7/1/2017 2:38:31 AM
might be looking at WY team total under...haven't seen total however with Iowa at 44 and WY at 70....maybe around 56-57...which would put team total around 21.5 or 22...if so tough to see them breaking down Hawkeye defense for 23+
gmanusc2001 PM gmanusc2001
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Posted: 7/1/2017 7:40:45 AM
Wow, greatly appreciate all the input...great to get these discussions going, can't wait for the season...

Getting back to my original question....if I'm a Wyoming backer, should I lock in a position at +13 or wait for the # to climb?

Which way do we expect this # to go?
DoubleUp4Life PM DoubleUp4Life
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Posted: 7/1/2017 10:14:44 AM
It's a pass for me 

But if you twisted my arm I would take Wyoming with 13+ 
UNIMAN PM UNIMAN
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Posted: 7/1/2017 11:46:57 AM
Wyoming playing at home has huge advantage playing at 7000'. Visitors gasping for air.
On the road that advantage is gone.

Iowa has Iowa St on deck, rivalry game. Iowa 1-6 ATS game before Iowa St. last 7 yrs.

I would lean for the +13, do not see it getting higher, maybe drop to 12 eventually. (Connelly has it at 10.8)

For me, because Wyoming has an outstanding QB that, without him everything changes, would make me wait closer to game time to place my bet. A lot can happen in two months. Maybe too cautious but that is how I approach it.
bookieassassin PM bookieassassin
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Posted: 7/1/2017 12:32:02 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by gmanusc2001:

Wow, greatly appreciate all the input...great to get these discussions going, can't wait for the season...

Getting back to my original question....if I'm a Wyoming backer, should I lock in a position at +13 or wait for the # to climb?

Which way do we expect this # to go?


  forgot about that


never know....it MIGHT hit 14......briefly
  * at Bookmaker.... Wyo taking 100% of bets / and still at 13'.......in Vegas mostly 13.....few 13's

maybe put 1/2 to 3/4 unit at 13......see what happens
  *I don't see how it can do much but drop.....Iowa -14 or more looks like a terrible bet to me............. 
Wess_Tijuana PM Wess_Tijuana
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Posted: 7/1/2017 1:14:42 PM
Allen does not have the pedigree of a typical 1st Round NFL QB (2-star recruit, per Scout.com), and after reviewing his game by game LY it is is clear he benefited from the presence and threat of RB Hill behind him

Allen will not have that benefit this year

That said, I believe in Bohl as a HC and have been rooting for him ever since he scored the Wyoming job...I truly enjoyed betting and winning with Wyoming LY

This year's Iowa team loses just one starter from an offensive line lined with 3 and 4 star recruits-- a unit that won the Joe Moore award for top OL in the country LY

Behind this OL is a proven, 1000-yard rusher in Wadley

Wyoming does not start a player on defense that Iowa would so much as offer a scholarship to

In a Bowl setting on a neutral field out West, Bohl could make this interesting with 13 points to work with

As it is, in Iowa City, I have this game capped at Iowa -18 and will sleep soundly after placing my bet on Iowa

...my counsel, however, is to wait for the Allen hype train to drive this number to -10 on game week, and then strike








gmanusc2001 PM gmanusc2001
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Posted: 7/1/2017 10:05:25 PM
IOWA currently 1 - 7 ATS in the last 8 openers...it is clear Ferentz doesn't give a shart about blowouts in these opening games, as BA has most astutely pointed out...that being said, I completely agree with the angle about Hawks offensive line being clearly more physical at the point of attack.
But I also see they project to be starting soph Nathan Stanley at QB (9 career passing attempts)
I just don't see them being able to extend the lead.

Good points by all...will continue to break this one down.
nmate2ooo2 PM nmate2ooo2
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Posted: 7/17/2017 4:43:29 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by steponaduck:


 I'm guessing you did not watch the game either, considering it was a seven point game at the start of the fourth quarter

that was my point, genius
DoubleUp4Life PM DoubleUp4Life
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Posted: 7/17/2017 7:37:22 AM
I jumped on Wyoming ML +400 for $20
scalabrine PM scalabrine
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Posted: 7/17/2017 9:08:30 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by steponaduck:


 I'm guessing you did not watch the game either, considering it was a seven point game at the start of the fourth quarter

Touche!
scalabrine PM scalabrine
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Posted: 7/17/2017 9:12:00 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by bookieassassin:

Reason to play this one?.......as usual not discussed

FERENTZ DOES NOT CARE ABOUT THESE EARLY NON-CONFERENCE GAMES
  *  covered 1/9......MISSING the cover by an average of 7 points/g
  
So.....1st look is to Wyoming
  * nice spot for THEM?.....do they play tough on the road?....play run well?.....tough game on deck?

Looking deeper into Wyoming LY....
  *QB / team plays well at home....weaker .> BAD on the road  (7-0 ATS home / 3-4 away) 

QB  57%  / 20TD - 5 INT /  161 PR at home
     * but 55% / 8-10  / 128 PR on road
       $$  vs actual tough D's?......52%......11 TD / 11 INT

NOTE:     this was WITH Hill / Wick....2214 yds.....and top 3 WR's (143 catches / 2455 yds)

Wyoming had one of nation's worst D's LY.....
  *#119 at 6.6/play.....453 /g..............on road 7.1/play....524/g
  only allowed 690 to NM......500 to EMich.....653 to mighty UNLV 
*** terrible vs the run.....5.3/204......BUT not too bad early in the year 
  *they do have a new DC and get 8 starters back

SO......looks risky....but it would be a shocker if Iowa blows them out here.....as Ferentz will ONLY want to come away with a boring / clean WIN.....incredibly vanilla game plan  >>   SMART

UNDER (total maybe inflated due to LY Wyo D / strong O)....maybe a great idea.......small play on Wyo not bad .....I might tease Wyo with the under ?..............

This is exactly what I'd be afraid of taking Iowa: Vanilla game plan as noted and then Allen burns them for a late score to backdoor them. They did the same thing against BYU in the bowl game +8 backdoorimg them late.
MikeMed PM MikeMed
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Posted: 7/17/2017 12:55:13 PM
The more I looked at this one the more Im pulling away from Iowa.
They just seem to play up to the competition level on too many occasions.....How can they get outgained by Miami of Ohio (in a win) and outgain Michigan in the same season.....Just seems too risky to play them in this spot.......I also believe this line will hit 14 at some point.

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