Posted: 5/12/2017 11:39:50 PM
There are situations where I go for totals and I seem more attracted to Overs more so than Unders. Focus mainly on Big Ten games.
Penn State was the best team for me last season. I was so impressed with their new offense in the spring game and the fact Hackenberg was gone that I played my first and only regular season win bet. Hate tying up money for so long but even money at over seven games seemed to good to pass up.
Penn State led the Big 10 in OVERS going 11 overs and 3 unders.
Next was Purdue at 9 over and 3 under, then Michigan at 9-4.
For Big 10 Under betting, Nebraska, Ind, and Northwestern led the way with 9 unders each and 4 overs followed by Maryland and Iowa at 8-5.
Indiana was interesting. They had one total line under 50 and the rest above. Should have seen this coming as they hired Tom Allen for the defense. And their fast paced offense wasn't up to par. So the result was an overinflated line that gave them 9 unders! Damn.
For me, Iowa was easy to see the unders coming, not so much Nebraska, and Northwestern I just stayed away from.
As I mentioned Penn St was good to me and so was Michigan, especially against Rutgers just after Ohio State beat Rutgers 59-0. Just felt Harbaugh had to match that margin and they did.
This year the story is offenses are on the rise and defenses rebuilding. So the expectation is high scoring in the Big 10. But this could mean the books will adjust upward and unders may be the way to go. Will have to wait and see.
Interesting data; from 1996-2013 compiling over 1200 games, the Under is 50.3% likely, the Over 48.3% likely and the push 1.34% likely. So blindly betting Unders you would have won or pushed 51.7% of the time.
Data source; https://wizardofodds.com/games/sports-betting/college-football/
Big Ten O/U
Penn St 11-3