Totals (Over/Unders)

Forum: College Football
Author: [College Football] Topic: Totals (Over/Unders)
WalterTibbs PM WalterTibbs
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Posted: 5/12/2017 10:41:35 AM
Many bettors made a decent profit every season betting nothing but totals.  When you consider betting over/under is essentially a 50/50 proposition on whether the total points scored by both teams will go over or under the bookmaker's posted total.

Ever wonder why books limit what you can bet on totals compared to line bets?  There's a reason you know!

What's your thoughts on betting totals..........................
UNIMAN PM UNIMAN
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Posted: 5/12/2017 11:39:50 PM
There are situations where I go for totals and I seem more attracted to Overs more so than Unders. Focus mainly on Big Ten games.

Penn State was the best team for me last season. I was so impressed with their new offense in the spring game and the fact Hackenberg was gone that I played my first and only regular season win bet. Hate tying up money for so long but even money at over seven games seemed to good to pass up.

Penn State led the Big 10 in OVERS going 11 overs and 3 unders.
Next was Purdue at 9 over and 3 under, then Michigan at 9-4.

For Big 10 Under betting, Nebraska, Ind, and Northwestern led the way with 9 unders each and 4 overs followed by Maryland and Iowa at 8-5.
Indiana was interesting. They had one total line under 50 and the rest above. Should have seen this coming as they hired Tom Allen for the defense. And their fast paced offense wasn't up to par. So the result was an overinflated line that gave them 9 unders! Damn.

For me, Iowa was easy to see the unders coming, not so much Nebraska, and Northwestern I just stayed away from.
As I mentioned Penn St was good to me and so was Michigan, especially against Rutgers just after Ohio State beat Rutgers 59-0. Just felt Harbaugh had to match that margin and they did.

This year the story is offenses are on the rise and defenses rebuilding. So the expectation is high scoring in the Big 10. But this could mean the books will adjust upward and unders may be the way to go. Will have to wait and see.

Interesting data; from 1996-2013 compiling over 1200 games, the Under is 50.3% likely, the Over 48.3% likely and the push 1.34% likely. So blindly betting Unders you would have won or pushed 51.7% of the time.

Data source; https://wizardofodds.com/games/sports-betting/college-football/

Big Ten O/U

Penn St 11-3
Purdue   9-3
Michigan 9-4

Rutgers  6-6
ILL          6-6
OSU       6-7
Minn       6-7
Wisc       6-6
MSU       5-7
Iowa       5-8
Maryland 5-8
NorthW    4-9
Neb         4-9
Ind           4-9
UNIMAN PM UNIMAN
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Posted: 5/12/2017 11:47:02 PM
That was 12,000+ games compilied not 1200.
MikeMed PM MikeMed
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Posted: 5/12/2017 11:58:11 PM
Man, I cant wait til CF starts........The majority of my wagers are sides.........If I dont like the sides I love placing some small wagers on totals.....Usually on the weeknight games or late SAT night PAC match ups.
WalterTibbs PM WalterTibbs
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Posted: 5/13/2017 10:50:38 AM
Ohio and Cincinnati combined to go Under 21 out of 23 games last year.

Pittsburgh and New Mexico State combined to go Over 21 out of 24 games last year.

Men, if you can peg a good over/under team early on...you can have a very profitable season.

WalterTibbs PM WalterTibbs
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Posted: 5/14/2017 7:41:04 AM
Last year when playing at home...these teams kept the scores Under the total.

LSU  0-7
Central Florida 0-6
Duke 0-6
Cincinnati 0-6-1
Nebraska 1-6
Bowling Green 1-5
Miami, Oh 1-5
Eastern Mich 1-5
ULL 1-5



WalterTibbs PM WalterTibbs
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Posted: 5/19/2017 11:03:26 AM
LV Sportsbook operator CG Technology released season win totals on nearly 50 teams on Thursday (5/18).  Take a look.

Alabama 10.5
Arizona 5.5
Arkansas 7
Auburn 8
Clemson 9
Colorado 7.5
Duke 5.5
Florida 8
Florida St. 9.5
Georgia 8
Georgia Tech 6.5
Indiana 5.5
Iowa 6.5
Kansas St. 7.5
Kentucky 6
Louisville 9
LSU 9
Miami 8.5
Michigan 9
Mich State 6.5
Miss State 5.5
Missouri 6.5
Nebraska 6
North Carolina 7


WalterTibbs PM WalterTibbs
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Posted: 5/19/2017 11:08:18 AM
continued...........

North Carolina St. 7.5
Northwestern 7
Ohio State 10
Oklahoma 9.5
Oklahoma St. 9
Oregon 8
Penn State 9.5
Pittsburgh 7.5
South Carolina 5.5
Stanford 8.5
TCU 7
Tennessee 7.5
Texas 7.5
Texas AM 7
Texas Tech 6
UCLA 6
USC 9.5
Utah 6.5
Virginia Tech 9
Washington 9.5
Washington St. 7.5
West Virginia 7
Wisconsin 9.5

Welcome any thoughts on these totals...............
steponaduck PM steponaduck
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Posted: 5/19/2017 3:11:33 PM
Pitt u7.5
Miss state o7.5
Stanford u8.5
WalterTibbs PM WalterTibbs
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Posted: 5/19/2017 8:54:16 PM
I'm out on a limb with South Carolina and Kentucky through some previous posts but I love the Gamecocks over 5.5 and the Wildcats Over 6.

Also like Miami Over 8.5 and Auburn Over 8.  Looking at others and these are at first glance.

What do you think men?

1969USC PM 1969USC
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Posted: 5/21/2017 2:14:49 PM
UCLA at 6?  Wow.  And, they play Hawaii.

USC would have to lose 4 at 9.5.  They have 2 tough away games.  ND and Colorado.  They avoid Washington.  I don't see it.
ArbyMelt PM ArbyMelt
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Posted: 5/21/2017 2:16:11 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by 1969USC:

UCLA at 6?  Wow.  And, they play Hawaii.

USC would have to lose 4 at 9.5.  They have 2 tough away games.  ND and Colorado.  They avoid Washington.  I don't see it.

if USC loses 3 and goes 9-3, the under 9.5 wins.... Just FYI. This is regular season only (12 games)
Huss PM Huss
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Posted: 5/21/2017 4:42:20 PM
I like NEB over 6 
The key game will be the ducks
1969USC PM 1969USC
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Posted: 5/23/2017 12:05:16 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ArbyMelt:


if USC loses 3 and goes 9-3, the under 9.5 wins.... Just FYI. This is regular season only (12 games)
I hate getting old. 
DoubleUp4Life PM DoubleUp4Life
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Posted: 5/23/2017 2:40:47 PM
I DONT WANT TO SAY YET 

UNTIL 5 DIMES RELEASES THEIR LINES 
WalterTibbs PM WalterTibbs
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Posted: 5/25/2017 10:30:39 AM
Alabama has gone 64-6 the past five seasons averaging 12.8 wins per season.  (13-1, 11-2, 12-2, 14-1, 14-1)  During that time, the defense has held opponents to an average of 3.1 rushing yards per carry.  (2.2, 3.3, 3.2, 2.4, 4.2)  Bama's defense is going to he really good again this season.

I like Bama OVER the 10.5 wins. 
alopez14325 PM alopez14325
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Posted: 6/6/2017 7:00:30 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by WalterTibbs:

I'm out on a limb with South Carolina and Kentucky through some previous posts but I love the Gamecocks over 5.5 and the Wildcats Over 6.

Also like Miami Over 8.5 and Auburn Over 8.  Looking at others and these are at first glance.

What do you think men?


South Carolina Over 5.5 was the one that stuck out to me, I really feel pretty good about the gamegocks
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