2017 Parlay Season Thread

Forum: College Football Page 1 of 2  1 2  
Author: [College Football] Topic: 2017 Parlay Season Thread
DevinnE PM DevinnE
Joined: Aug 2013
Posts: 428
 
DevinnE
Participation Meter
Prospect
Posted: 4/29/2017 10:17:18 PM
This is the 2017 Parlay Season Thread. A place for "Parlays".
-
A place to comment, open discussion, what you like or what could be adjusted on a particular parlay in this thread or post your own parlay...
-
First parlay for the year in the books...

8/26/2017 12:00 PM College Football 104 BYU* -29½ -150  vs Portland State
game must be played before August 30th for action
9/2/2017 12:00 PM College Football 201 Florida State* +10½ -170  vs Alabama
game must be played before September 6th for action
9/3/2017 7:30 PM College Football 204 West Virginia* +3½ -145  vs Virginia Tech
game must be played before September 6th for action
9/2/2017 12:00 PM College Football 206 South Carolina* +3½ -120  vs NC State
game must be played before September 6th for action
9/2/2017 12:00 PM College Football 210 Colorado* -2½ -240  vs Colorado State
game must be played before September 6th for action
9/2/2017 12:00 PM College Football 213 Florida* +10½ -220  vs Michigan
game must be played before September 6th for action
9/2/2017 12:00 PM College Football 215 Texas A&M* +3½ -160  vs UCLA
game must be played before September 6th for action
9/2/2017 12:00 PM College Football 222 North Carolina* -2½ -280  vs California
game must be played before September 6th for action
9/4/2017 12:00 PM College Football 411 Tennessee* -5½ -120  vs Georgia Tech
game must be played before September 6th for action
-
$25.00 To Win $1,682.88 
LonghornHoosier PM LonghornHoosier
Joined: Sep 2007
Posts: 6210
 
LonghornHoosier
Participation Meter
Captain
Posted: 4/29/2017 10:35:39 PM
Week 1
Estimated Lines - ESPN - FPI Power Rating - as of April 29, 2017
Three Team Parlay ATS

@Texas -16 over Maryland
@Southern California -19.5
Memphis -21.5
$1,000 to win $9,000

Seeking feedback...

LonghornHoosier PM LonghornHoosier
Joined: Sep 2007
Posts: 6210
 
LonghornHoosier
Participation Meter
Captain
Posted: 4/29/2017 11:06:25 PM
Week 1
Estimated Lines - ESPN - FPI Power Rating - as of April 29, 2017
Three Team Parlay ATS

@Texas -16 over Maryland
@Southern California -19 over Western Michigan
@Memphis -21 over Louisiana-Monroe
$1,000 to win $6,000

Seeking feedback...
WalterTibbs PM WalterTibbs
Joined: Oct 2014
Posts: 1249
 
WalterTibbs
Participation Meter
Veteran
Posted: 4/30/2017 11:22:00 AM
Good luck men!

DevinnE PM DevinnE
Joined: Aug 2013
Posts: 428
 
DevinnE
Participation Meter
Prospect
Posted: 5/2/2017 5:44:03 PM
Parlay #2 in the books....

$25.00 to win $9,836.65....

Pending7 Team Parlay
Pending8/25/17 12:00pm  College Football  101 Stanford -29½ -190* vs Rice 
Pending9/2/17 12:00pm  College Football  201 Florida State +7½ -110* vs Alabama 
Pending9/2/17 12:00pm  College Football  206 South Carolina +3½ -120* vs NC State 
Pending9/2/17 12:00pm  College Football  216 UCLA -2 -110* vs Texas A&M 
Pending9/2/17 12:00pm  College Football  222 North Carolina -2½ -280* vs California 
Pending9/4/17 12:00pm  College Football  411 Tennessee -2½ -200* vs Georgia Tech 
Pending
9/7/17 12:00pm  NFL Props Football  25217 Tampa Bay Buccaneers win NFC Conf +1800* vs Field wins NFC Conference 
LonghornHoosier PM LonghornHoosier
Joined: Sep 2007
Posts: 6210
 
LonghornHoosier
Participation Meter
Captain
Posted: 5/3/2017 12:13:22 AM
Devinn - I think you changed your position on UCLA v Texas A&M.    UCLA did lose a number of key players in the draft.  I just think with Mora on the hot seat, with a revenge angle, if Rosen is 100% healthy, playing at home, with the spread being only UCLA -2 and with Texas A&M's losses, UCLA should win and cover.   GL
steponaduck PM steponaduck
Joined: Apr 2017
Posts: 277
 
steponaduck
Participation Meter
Prospect
Posted: 5/3/2017 7:03:47 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by LonghornHoosier:

Week 1Estimated Lines - ESPN - FPI Power Rating - as of April 29, 2017Three Team Parlay ATS@Texas -16 over Maryland@Southern California -19.5Memphis -21.5$1,000 to win $9,000Seeking feedback...



My guess is if you continue to battle favorites, you'll end up somewhere around 39%, with no bankroll to speak of. It's very hard to win consistently, when you only pick favorites
Posted using a mobile device.
QBoption PM QBoption
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 2745
 
QBoption
Participation Meter
Veteran
Posted: 5/4/2017 12:02:19 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by steponaduck:




My guess is if you continue to battle favorites, you'll end up somewhere around 39%, with no bankroll to speak of. It's very hard to win consistently, when you only pick favorites
I mean it sounds good. The truth is, betting in general can leave u at 39% with no bankroll.

Oh yeah and 1 more thing...
I proved u wrong and became a legend while doing it.
Just check my covers space.
ANY kind of betting requires research and discipline for success for a player.
And on top of that, Supreme Confidence in one's self.
LonghornHoosier PM LonghornHoosier
Joined: Sep 2007
Posts: 6210
 
LonghornHoosier
Participation Meter
Captain
Posted: 5/4/2017 1:26:11 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by steponaduck:




My guess is if you continue to battle favorites, you'll end up somewhere around 39%, with no bankroll to speak of. It's very hard to win consistently, when you only pick favorites

point taken, and that was 2016 for me...but ask me how I did in 2015?  70% through mid november, playing 90% favorites before I slipped the last two weeks for a 64% 2015 ATS.   For 2015, I am legend!     But, I agree, you have to evolve and adjust.   Sure, sharps play a lot of dogs, since the public in general plays faves.   But, not always.    Sharps want to win, and they play for value.   And even the best sharps lose 35% to 40% of the time.   2016 seem to be good for dog backers, in general.   my model is that I look for talent differential, motivation, coaching, returning starters (September), scheme, trends, tendencies.   And I don't pay for picks.   I advocate that you can find value in favorites, even big public plays, if you do your homework.   My parlay above is just a lean.   But, I have 16 games that I am researching in week 1, and I will pick 2 or 3, probably in a parlay, and yes, they will probably be favorites.   But, for me to make an incremental leap in my capping ability, I have to be sharper at identifying dogs, and have the courage to play them, if I perceive there to be value.    Thanks for the feedback.  I welcome your comments on this follow up post...
DevinnE PM DevinnE
Joined: Aug 2013
Posts: 428
 
DevinnE
Participation Meter
Prospect
Posted: 5/4/2017 12:20:10 PM
Hey LH. In regard to Texas A&M vs UCLA.  I have it set up that I may win both of these.   If it's a close game, like a 3 point game then I could win both of these inside the parlays...  
QBoption PM QBoption
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 2745
 
QBoption
Participation Meter
Veteran
Posted: 5/4/2017 9:35:37 PM
Just for the record, i enjoy routing for underdogs, more now than before.
QBoption PM QBoption
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 2745
 
QBoption
Participation Meter
Veteran
Posted: 5/4/2017 9:47:44 PM
devinnE, that ucla game does not belong in a parlay, regardless of how u feel.
1. its a 2.5 spread 
2. Ucla is soft and trying to be hard. Not gonna work vs A&M.
3. If u think the Ucla qb is gonna take u to the promise land. Dont hold ur breath.

That Stanford Pick is not even a 50/50 bet, more like a 40/60
1. check stanfords ats week 1 last 5 yrs.
2. has the trees ever lost as a fave in week 1.
3. Do they have a returning QB?.
...If u can check all 3 off with positives then its a good play.

Bro, i play parlays to win, and to stick it to my book. 
The Fun is when i win. Not when i bet.

A good parlay should not have any 2 point faves.
A good parlay should not include stanford, wyoming, minnesota, and others.

Gentlemen, start ur engines! 
LonghornHoosier PM LonghornHoosier
Joined: Sep 2007
Posts: 6210
 
LonghornHoosier
Participation Meter
Captain
Posted: 5/5/2017 3:22:18 AM
QB - what do you think about the three I have listed above?  Again, they are just leans.   Like you, I am serious about making money.     I am a Texas grad and a homer, and my pick violates my rule on wagering on Texas.  But, I though I think it will take Herman a few years to get to a sustainable top 10 level, I think his impact and that of his assistants will be felt from the start.   Strong was a good guy, but a poor game day coach who did not pay attention to the details and surrounded himself with marginal assistants.  I think Herman has some outstanding up and coming assistants.   In week 1 I am closely evaluating Texas, USC, Alabama, Arizona State, Memphis and Alabama.     In week 2, I like Penn State (revenge against Pitt, pending how Browne looks in week 1), Ohio State, and Louisville.   

QBoption PM QBoption
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 2745
 
QBoption
Participation Meter
Veteran
Posted: 5/7/2017 2:46:12 PM
Before i answer ur question LH, i just wanted to say... i dont  see why the 3 of us cant agree on 3 teams for week 1, so we can smack the books in the face...
QBoption PM QBoption
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 2745
 
QBoption
Participation Meter
Veteran
Posted: 5/7/2017 3:18:35 PM
LH- i usually dont make picks until after July 4th.
 From my experience the first parlay I make and post has at least 1 hiccup in it.

That Texas game got scratchin my head. 
1. i dont trust 'em weeek 1 without an identity and a stud QB.
2. i dont like 16 pt faves. if the dog has any kind of bite it gets scary.
3. No homer teams in the parlay.

 
LonghornHoosier PM LonghornHoosier
Joined: Sep 2007
Posts: 6210
 
LonghornHoosier
Participation Meter
Captain
Posted: 5/7/2017 11:59:57 PM
QB  - Roger that...Let's do it...Again, those are just leans...Normally, I would agree with you on Texas...Buchelle may not be a stud, but he's legit, and he will be the starter...I think the D will be a lot better as well.  I don't think the Terps have the horses to exploit Texas weaknesses in Herman's debut...Let's keep talking and figure it out...I think Strong's 3rd year on the hot seat had an adverse impact on the Texas players...That Kansas loss indicates how bad they had slipped.   That's the thing...How as a homer, can I back a team that lost to freakin Kansas as a 24 pt favorite?     Take a look at the Texas spring game...that's what convinced me...if warren is 100%, that O line plays like its capable, and all of our 6'3" and 6'5" WR's catch everything that touches their hands, against Maryland's undersized DB's, its going to be a long day for the Terps.  So you can see, I am trying to be objective about this...I just don't have that many teams in week 1, that I feel overwelmingly confident about.  To a rational capper, that would imply a pass, but I think there is value in week 1, you just have to do your homework...thanks for the reply!  
WalterTibbs PM WalterTibbs
Joined: Oct 2014
Posts: 1249
 
WalterTibbs
Participation Meter
Veteran
Posted: 5/10/2017 8:20:16 AM
Rather than play a two-team parlay, I had rather play a two-team Reverse Parlay sometimes referred to as "Double Action" in football and basketball.  Down here in Alabama, we call it a "Turn Bet."  More profit but at a greater risk.  Example:

Wager:  $100
1 Win-1 Loss:  Lose $120
Both Teams Lose:  Lose $220
1 Win-Push:  Win $200
Both Teams Win:  Win 400

Consider a two team parlay pays 13 to 5 or risk $100 to win $260.

Reverse parlay is my preference, especially when I'm sold on two teams. 
QBoption PM QBoption
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 2745
 
QBoption
Participation Meter
Veteran
Posted: 5/10/2017 10:20:56 PM
I hear u bro, Texas is your team...
But, for the sake of this smack'em in the face parlay, 
let's only select: 
1.teams that have to be in this parlay.
2.teams that covered last year.
3.teams the did not get blown out in there bowl game.

3 simple rules playboy.

Just roll with me on this one...
I just want to execute a precise play...

...Plus i would really like to party after this...
QBoption PM QBoption
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 2745
 
QBoption
Participation Meter
Veteran
Posted: 5/10/2017 10:23:16 PM
We both agree, it's gonna be a long day for the Terps...


QBoption PM QBoption
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 2745
 
QBoption
Participation Meter
Veteran
Posted: 5/11/2017 10:28:14 AM
This should be a covers team effort... all of us should come up with a pick and come together. Don't just leave it up to me, we all have great ideas...
with little research i could go with some sexy picks, but that's not being precise...
I'm feeling these but my personal rule is not to fall in love with my picks:

USC -19.5 vs w.mich
Da'ville -23 vs purdue
LSU -13 vs BYU

reasons i will reveal latter but it seems obvi. why i like those 3. Only 1 thing, BYU scares the mess out of me. they have always been a week 1 primetime play. they will show up.
LonghornHoosier PM LonghornHoosier
Joined: Sep 2007
Posts: 6210
 
LonghornHoosier
Participation Meter
Captain
Posted: 5/11/2017 4:57:04 PM
QB

I looked at the @Louisville -23 over Purdue as well...Its a mismatch on paper...I am concerned about the connection of Petrino and Brohm while at W. Kentucky (Petrino HC and Brohm OC).   Purdue has a new coach with new systems, playing at Lou in week 1.   Two power 5 teams...Will Petrino call off the dogs after getting up big in week 1...Lou has NC (I like Lou if less than a TD), then Clemson.   

I like the USC pick...4 and 5 star talent v. 2 and 3 star talent, with a new head coach who has never been a HC.   USC always screws me...they are the West Coast version of Ga Tech, can't bet on them or against them, highly variable in outcomes.   W Mich has 8 returning starters on D...I think they will play tough, though, I wonder how W Mich will score?   The only recent benchmark opponent was Utah, who beat USC early in the season, then beat W Mich by 2 in the bowl game.  Granted, that was early in the season for USC.  It scares me a bit...USC has Stan and Texas on deck...Conventional wisdom would say that if USC can score almost 50 against a descent Penn State D, they should be able to score at least that much against W Mich, if they want to...And that's the key...motivation...Plus, from a technical perspective, the public will be big on USC, inflating the spread...The one thing I think USC backers will have going for them, is motivation for USC to erase the Game 1 debacle against Alabama to start 2016, as well as the perception by USC (and their fair weathered, yo, I am going to the NFL baby) players, that W. Michigan is a legit and up and coming MAC Program, that if they don't take seriously, could subject them to a possible upset, and thus repeat the ridicule of last season.   HAve a Heisman Fave QB stud, in week 1, it could be a showcase for USC...I wish the spread were around USC -16

LSU - I just don't know.   They have a 1st round RB, tons of talent...But, I still remember the Wisconsin game last year.   I think by the end of the season, LSU will be legit...And I have tons of concerns about BYU and their 2nd year coach, but those Mormons won't quit for 60...Granted, its in Houston...a hotbed of recruiting for LSU...LSU did soundly defeat Texas Tech in a bowl game a few years ago at TRG or whatever its called.     It is indeed a statement game for Ogeron.  A lot of people will be looking at the D.   

That's my $.02.   I still have Texas #1 on my board, with the assumption that the spread stays at Texas -16 or lower...I like all three of the picks that you have presented.   I just have given you some feedback to think about...BTW, this is how I analyze games...I look at every angle...I am not always right, but, I do the best I can.   I am sure those who back dogs will criticize your picks.  Week 1, is all about faves and chalk, from my perspective.  But, in the long run, it all comes down to value, whether that be fave or dog...WORD!  



QBoption PM QBoption
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 2745
 
QBoption
Participation Meter
Veteran
Posted: 5/11/2017 11:23:55 PM
USC - homer pick
TEX - homer pick
UNLV - parlay qualifier

Lets smack'em in the face

QBoption PM QBoption
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 2745
 
QBoption
Participation Meter
Veteran
Posted: 5/11/2017 11:53:26 PM
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
Mich - parlay qualifier
TEX - homer pick+parlay qualifier
UNLV - parlay qualifier

...Now Lets smack'em in the face
LonghornHoosier PM LonghornHoosier
Joined: Sep 2007
Posts: 6210
 
LonghornHoosier
Participation Meter
Captain
Posted: 5/12/2017 9:00:01 AM
QB - Why do you like UNLV?  
LonghornHoosier PM LonghornHoosier
Joined: Sep 2007
Posts: 6210
 
LonghornHoosier
Participation Meter
Captain
Posted: 5/12/2017 2:19:03 PM
QB - So you are indeed a USC Homer, and you still like them against WM.   What do you think about my fundamental analysis.   Like BYU, even with a new coach, WM is use to winning or playing tough, and it won't be a cakewalk.    With that being said, if SC plays solid D, they should be able to create opps.    I like the fact that USC has all of its assistants back (that's my understanding), and continuity.   Even with the losses, SC is a legit NC contender.   Again, I believe with WM high profile even for a non P5 Conference, they will get 100% of SC's attention.    At least that's my hope.   I see a 14+ pt SC lead in the first half, followed by a strong 3rd quarter.  19 pts against a perceived good WM team should scare some of the public squares off...Let's talk this through.   
Forum: College Football Page 1 of 2  1 2  
You have entered the forum as a GUEST. 
You must login/register to post or reply.
Desktop View: Switch to Mobile View