I usually do a bit of a write up, so people can see what I am thinking, and decide if they think I have a clue what I'm talking about. I am way too tired to do a lengthy write up, and there;s a good chance im sleeping at kickoff.
I think Northwestern +5 is worth a 2U play, but I should point out that it's getting harder and harder to see the positives of betting games before kick off. Motivation is important, but I think a lot of people over analyze it. Northwestern is a contrarian play, they have only seen 21% of bets ATS against Pitt. Northwestern has a solid offense. They lost as a 5 pt dog @ Minnesota, and as a 7 pt dog vs Wisconsin. These are the type of teams NW has trouble with, bc theyre two of the better defenses in the country. Field position and penalties become much more important.
Pitt obviously doesnt have a defense like Minn, or Wiscy, but there's no denying they have a very potent offense. I am not that worried about the Pitt passing game, as I am with NW stopping James Connor. I think NW is a team Pitt could have trouble with, because they're a very disciplined team, wont beat themselves and rarely blow their assignments.
The Northwestern defense isint an all time great, but their defense is good enough to hold opposing offenses to a one score lead, regardless of how long they have been playing. They do a great job holding teams below their season average. I also think the average bettor is overvaluing Pitt because of their comeback, signature win against Clemson...
When Northwestern plays a team with an average defense, they usually have no problem moving the ball through the air with Thurson, or on the ground with all big 10 running back Justin Jackson,
I used a lot of the same way of thinking when I took Minnesota over Washington State last night. Even as a 10 point underdog only 22% of bets ATS were versus Wash st. Pitt is receiving 21% in this game. I think there are pretty logical reasons why vegas knows they can overvalue certain teams.
I usually do a bit of a write up, so people can see what I am thinking, and decide if they think I have a clue what I'm talking about. I am way too tired to do a lengthy write up, and there;s a good chance im sleeping at kickoff.
I think Northwestern +5 is worth a 2U play, but I should point out that it's getting harder and harder to see the positives of betting games before kick off. Motivation is important, but I think a lot of people over analyze it. Northwestern is a contrarian play, they have only seen 21% of bets ATS against Pitt. Northwestern has a solid offense. They lost as a 5 pt dog @ Minnesota, and as a 7 pt dog vs Wisconsin. These are the type of teams NW has trouble with, bc theyre two of the better defenses in the country. Field position and penalties become much more important.
Pitt obviously doesnt have a defense like Minn, or Wiscy, but there's no denying they have a very potent offense. I am not that worried about the Pitt passing game, as I am with NW stopping James Connor. I think NW is a team Pitt could have trouble with, because they're a very disciplined team, wont beat themselves and rarely blow their assignments.
The Northwestern defense isint an all time great, but their defense is good enough to hold opposing offenses to a one score lead, regardless of how long they have been playing. They do a great job holding teams below their season average. I also think the average bettor is overvaluing Pitt because of their comeback, signature win against Clemson...
When Northwestern plays a team with an average defense, they usually have no problem moving the ball through the air with Thurson, or on the ground with all big 10 running back Justin Jackson,
I used a lot of the same way of thinking when I took Minnesota over Washington State last night. Even as a 10 point underdog only 22% of bets ATS were versus Wash st. Pitt is receiving 21% in this game. I think there are pretty logical reasons why vegas knows they can overvalue certain teams.
I love the over in this game, but the movement scares me. Opened at 68 at the beginning of the month. Now down to 65. Sharps on the under or line makers just shrinking total to get money coming in on it? Id like to hear your thoughts on this.
I love the over in this game, but the movement scares me. Opened at 68 at the beginning of the month. Now down to 65. Sharps on the under or line makers just shrinking total to get money coming in on it? Id like to hear your thoughts on this.
Sharps are off their rockers fading the Pitt total.. Nwestern hit Mich St for 54 where the Pitt coach is the for D.C. where they also play the same.quarters man up coverage Pitt does..remember they chased the Browns for 8weeks till they won last wknd.. this gm will be a shootout no doubt. Northwestern only failed to score vs Wisky and Minnesota and let's face it Pitt D isn't comparable to either of these teams..
Sharps are off their rockers fading the Pitt total.. Nwestern hit Mich St for 54 where the Pitt coach is the for D.C. where they also play the same.quarters man up coverage Pitt does..remember they chased the Browns for 8weeks till they won last wknd.. this gm will be a shootout no doubt. Northwestern only failed to score vs Wisky and Minnesota and let's face it Pitt D isn't comparable to either of these teams..
Curious as to where you are seeing 21% of the spread bets are on Pitt as I am seeing 64% of the spread bets are on Pitt on the site I use and 63% of the consensus bets here on covers are on Pitt. Thanks
Curious as to where you are seeing 21% of the spread bets are on Pitt as I am seeing 64% of the spread bets are on Pitt on the site I use and 63% of the consensus bets here on covers are on Pitt. Thanks
I love the over in this game, but the movement scares me. Opened at 68 at the beginning of the month. Now down to 65. Sharps on the under or line makers just shrinking total to get money coming in on it? Id like to hear your thoughts on this.
Pitt lost its offensive coordinator. His playcalling was amazing this year, and they won't have it in this game.
I love the over in this game, but the movement scares me. Opened at 68 at the beginning of the month. Now down to 65. Sharps on the under or line makers just shrinking total to get money coming in on it? Id like to hear your thoughts on this.
Pitt lost its offensive coordinator. His playcalling was amazing this year, and they won't have it in this game.
Sharps are off their rockers fading the Pitt total.. Nwestern hit Mich St for 54 where the Pitt coach is the for D.C. where they also play the same.quarters man up coverage Pitt does.
Wow -- good point.
Sounds like NW team over may be the best play in this one.
Sharps are off their rockers fading the Pitt total.. Nwestern hit Mich St for 54 where the Pitt coach is the for D.C. where they also play the same.quarters man up coverage Pitt does.
Wow -- good point.
Sounds like NW team over may be the best play in this one.
Down the stretch, virtually every Pitt total moved 3-5 points toward the under. Most were over by the 10:00 mark of the 3rd quarter. Here we go again. First team to 48.
Down the stretch, virtually every Pitt total moved 3-5 points toward the under. Most were over by the 10:00 mark of the 3rd quarter. Here we go again. First team to 48.
Curious as to where you are seeing 21% of the spread bets are on Pitt as I am seeing 64% of the spread bets are on Pitt on the site I use and 63% of the consensus bets here on covers are on Pitt. Thanks
Curious as to where you are seeing 21% of the spread bets are on Pitt as I am seeing 64% of the spread bets are on Pitt on the site I use and 63% of the consensus bets here on covers are on Pitt. Thanks
Sharps base a lot of their totals on pace of play. Pit plays at a slow pace so the sharps will continue to bet the under on every Pit game.
means nothing when it's 21-14 at the end of the 1st qtr.of every gm
Pitt is the perfect combination of superior offense and terrible defense it's no fluke they 11-1 to the over when most of these totals are crushed midway thru the 3rd qtr
Sharps base a lot of their totals on pace of play. Pit plays at a slow pace so the sharps will continue to bet the under on every Pit game.
means nothing when it's 21-14 at the end of the 1st qtr.of every gm
Pitt is the perfect combination of superior offense and terrible defense it's no fluke they 11-1 to the over when most of these totals are crushed midway thru the 3rd qtr
ya so only 21% of people were taking Northwestern to cover, that was also two days ago. I was also only talking about people who were taking NW ATS.. That number may have increased since the line moved down to four. That 36% also includes all of the Northwestern ML bettors
ya so only 21% of people were taking Northwestern to cover, that was also two days ago. I was also only talking about people who were taking NW ATS.. That number may have increased since the line moved down to four. That 36% also includes all of the Northwestern ML bettors
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