Unless a (very) brief front pops up...weather here will be 95ish at kick-off / 30% humidity or so
*still 90ish at 10:00p...it's the same every day
After getting DESTROYED LY...Texas should come out very aggressive here...
O- Irish have NO CLUE as to what to expect...no shocker if Horns confuse them early...jump out to early lead (+ Irish lose 7/10 tacklers)
D- Charlie is extremely creative defensively (starting as 3-3-5 guru under Lou Holtz)...the DF looks strong / Irish OL very inexperienced > could create ISSUES early
I would look for a low scoring 1H / lean Texas...look for a play on ND 2H
*Kelly should figure a few things out at halftime....ways to get more HEAT on Buechele..
.I would imagine the Horns figure out a way to LOSE this one late...probably by less than a TD
NOTE: if you MUST.....wait until the game to start.....THEN bet
$ you then create a nice edge for yourself....try watching the game INSIDE out....see what's going on in the TRENCHES.....THEN work your eyes to the ball
*this is what
transfers to the 2H
notes.....
As mentioned....
*always best to use your BRAIN when handicapping...instead of a crystal ball.....everybody likes Charlie......we ain't here to be his buddy......as a multi-millionaire he has plenty of buddies
Think Texas is gonna be MUCH better?...........WHY?
*unless you're Steele selling something of course
CLEARLY....a 'learning on the job'....kinda HC....after TWO years...he has them about where they were when he got here
*taken him until year 3 to install his O....and now a TRUE FR QB with everybody's azz on the line......
*his D?....you gotta AX yourself....why in year 2 did they get MUCH worse?
30 points/g...5.5/play..450 yds/g...4.5/rush (LY under Mack 26...5.5/407...4.4)
Using those efficiency ratings (
S&P / FEI) < by far the best way to go :
2013 1st (last under Mack) > 2014 > 2015
F/+ #35 > #53 > #68 (overall team efficiency)....yes worse every year
O #49 > 80 > 75
D 44 > 7 > 66 (note 2012 #32 / 2011 #9 / 2010 #31)
ST 31 > 115 > 11
Charlie does a great job getting his team ready when he has some sort of EDGE...like getting his azz kicked the year before (revenge)
*covering 9/13....by about 8 pts/g ....dropping TCU game
He struggles when he does not...recall year 3 at Louisville as big favorite...
*off a loss- 67% ATS....off win- 39% ATS (note 63% off loss /go UNDER as well)
*HOME- 36% ATS / ROAD - 60%
PERSPECTIVE: when trying to predict how a team with a new or (relatively) new HC will perform....you gotta know what's his PLAN
1) tear the whole thing down > start over.....like Charlie
*so they look MUCH worse early.....takes 3-4 years for results to show.....if coach survives
2) OR..... keeping much intact.....may show results early....fade later as things regress to the way they were (leading to last guy getting fired)
SO.....Horns may be much better sure....why not make 'em show you 1st?......................
Humble when ambitious - gracious when successful - resilient when you fail.