11-3 in my last 14
2015 CFB: 5-3
I'll keep this short because many here do not care for ML parlays but that is the only way to play these two games.
Michigan State -225 @ Nebraska
I don't know if you saw it last week but Nebraska gave up an unconscionable 55 points to Purdue.
I'll say that again, they gave up FIFTY FIVE points to Purdue.
That team doesn't even know how to tackle properly and their offense, lead by a redshirt freshman in his 5th start ever put up the speed limit on them.
That is not only the worst defensive performance of the year by any team worthy of mention (let's forget the true bottom feeders), that is the worst defensive performance by Nebraska in decades.
I could write forever here but here is the bottom line: Michigan State has been playing nip and tuck all year, going right to the wire with 5 of the 8 teams it has played (even Rutgers!). Yet, it has prevailed in every instance. That is their strength. When the heat is on, they play their best.
Conversely, Nebraska has lost 4 games as time has expired, and last week, they got a reprieve in Purdue, a team that had a 1-18 record in conference under Darrell Hazell, so they could possibly get a bowl. They got romped, only scoring 29 in the final quarter to make it respectable. Finishing games is Nebraska's biggest weakness.
Taking the ML offers the biggest strength vs. the biggest weekend in this matchup.
Add to this that Tommy Armstrong returns this week from turf toe. He'll be better than Fyfe last week, but not good enough.
Note: The Spartans are 10-1 in November road games under Dantonio. Think that it just some fancy number crunching so the pick looks good? It's not.
November is a tough stretch to go into for college kids and they have been quoted as directly attributing their strength, condition and endurance during this stretch of games to their offseason workouts under this very coach. The proof is in the pudding.
MSU is coming off a bye week and their passing game is LIGHT YEARS ahead of Purdue...that just dropped 55 on them. And this game starts the home stretch for MSU to go to the Big 10 championship and possibly to a BCS bowl. Nebraska going through one of its roughest seasons ever, simply isn't going to derail that.
But we need a second game with a reasonable ML
That game is:
UConn -255 @ Tulane
There are no redeeming qualities for Tulane. They have beaten two teams this year: An FCS team in Maine, their most impressive win and the lowest scoring team and possibly the worst in the FBS in Central Florida. And mind you, that 'lowest scoring team' dropped 32 points on Tulane, their highest output of the season by far.
UConn is well coached and just had a massively impressive win (for them) over East Carolina. We know ECU stinks but it wasn't all that long ago Vegas had them as 3 pt favorites over Temple.
Now UConn sits at 4-5 and if they can get to .500, they'll almost certainly go to a bowl.
This is an incredibly important game for them, possibly their biggest in years and it's against an inferior opponent. But UConn really shouldn't be laying this kind of number to anyone...
The negatives? It's Tulane's homecoming game. Tanner Lee and Lazedrick Thompson return from injuries (HUGE for Tulane). While I have seen those guys play (and they will put points up on the board for Tulane no doubt, it's not going to be enough.
While we have improvements this week for Nebraska and Tulane, those improvements will for short of a win for two teams eyeing FAR bigger and better things than who they are facing and two teams that will not treat either inferior team as a letdown spot given what's at stake (and both teams know full well what that is).
The pick:
ML Parlay
Michigan -255
UConn -225
$100 pays $102