Just a week away until the season begins and I cannot wait! I try to spend half my time studying spreads and the other half on totals and so far this one has jumped out at me. Baylor vs SMU currently at 74.5. First of all whats changed at Baylor? Bryce Petty is gone, insert a new QB for coach Briles and its off to the races again. I don't think losing Petty will hurt Baylor one bit as I have them ranked as one of the top 3 offense's in the country. Defensively Shawn Oakman is a freak of nature and IMO will compete with Joey Bosa for DPOY. Whats changed at SMU? Hiring a new coach in Chad Morris helps but its gonna take some time to get the Mustangs even relevant. Now I'll be the first to tell you that you cant base everything off of last year but there are many factors that just cant be ignored. Last year Baylor won 45-0 not even close to the 74.5 points. In order for this game to get to 75 or more 1 of 2 things will have to happen. First, Baylor must score 60 or more which we all can agree they are more then capable of doing. However, LY they scored 60 or more in just 4 of 13 games or 30.7%. Second, SMU who averaged 11 PPG LY must score more than 13 points which they did in 3 out of 12 games or 25%. I expect Baylor to come out with a chip on their shoulder for just missing last years playoffs but for this week 1 game I'm looking at score of Baylor 52 SMU 13. This would be 65 well below the 74.5 Total. Your feedback and constructive criticism is appreciated but if your here just to bash my opinion save it for someone else. With that being said good luck everyone and lets all get paid!!!
Just a week away until the season begins and I cannot wait! I try to spend half my time studying spreads and the other half on totals and so far this one has jumped out at me. Baylor vs SMU currently at 74.5. First of all whats changed at Baylor? Bryce Petty is gone, insert a new QB for coach Briles and its off to the races again. I don't think losing Petty will hurt Baylor one bit as I have them ranked as one of the top 3 offense's in the country. Defensively Shawn Oakman is a freak of nature and IMO will compete with Joey Bosa for DPOY. Whats changed at SMU? Hiring a new coach in Chad Morris helps but its gonna take some time to get the Mustangs even relevant. Now I'll be the first to tell you that you cant base everything off of last year but there are many factors that just cant be ignored. Last year Baylor won 45-0 not even close to the 74.5 points. In order for this game to get to 75 or more 1 of 2 things will have to happen. First, Baylor must score 60 or more which we all can agree they are more then capable of doing. However, LY they scored 60 or more in just 4 of 13 games or 30.7%. Second, SMU who averaged 11 PPG LY must score more than 13 points which they did in 3 out of 12 games or 25%. I expect Baylor to come out with a chip on their shoulder for just missing last years playoffs but for this week 1 game I'm looking at score of Baylor 52 SMU 13. This would be 65 well below the 74.5 Total. Your feedback and constructive criticism is appreciated but if your here just to bash my opinion save it for someone else. With that being said good luck everyone and lets all get paid!!!
Totally agree. I am on Baylor at -33.5 and believe their defense will be Briles best yet. I'd be surprised if SMU scores more than 14. My gues is 55-10
Totally agree. I am on Baylor at -33.5 and believe their defense will be Briles best yet. I'd be surprised if SMU scores more than 14. My gues is 55-10
I agree. SMU's offense was absolutely terrible last year and they're facing a defense that will be even better this year. I don't see SMU scoring at all with Oakman on the field. He's a freak of nature and is going to give SMU's LT hell all night
I agree. SMU's offense was absolutely terrible last year and they're facing a defense that will be even better this year. I don't see SMU scoring at all with Oakman on the field. He's a freak of nature and is going to give SMU's LT hell all night
you guys know that Baylor's DC Phil Bennett was formerly the head coach at SMU prior to Jones. Add that to Baylor's chip on its shoulders for being left of the playoff, losing a 21 pt lead to Mich St in the Cotton Bowl, and now this rape case against a former player who transferred from Boise to Baylor. Throw in the recruiting angle for DFW and the fact that Morris is a new high profile coach for SMU. In addition, as someone pointed out, this is Baylor's best D in Briles tenure. I think Briles is going to take his frustrations out on SMU...
Baylor 63
SMU 10
With regard to the O/U...I would not count on SMU scoring many of those points...
you guys know that Baylor's DC Phil Bennett was formerly the head coach at SMU prior to Jones. Add that to Baylor's chip on its shoulders for being left of the playoff, losing a 21 pt lead to Mich St in the Cotton Bowl, and now this rape case against a former player who transferred from Boise to Baylor. Throw in the recruiting angle for DFW and the fact that Morris is a new high profile coach for SMU. In addition, as someone pointed out, this is Baylor's best D in Briles tenure. I think Briles is going to take his frustrations out on SMU...
Baylor 63
SMU 10
With regard to the O/U...I would not count on SMU scoring many of those points...
Thanks for the feedback guys all great stuff. It looks like so far the consensus is SMU will score roughly 10 points. I do think SMU will be better offensively this year but at the same time Baylors defense will be better as well. So if most of you are predicting the 10 points by SMU that means Baylor must score 65 or more to cover the 74.5 Total. LY Baylor scored 65 or more just 1 time in 13 games or 7.7%. This furthers my belief at taking the under at 74.5 and find myself wanting to pull the trigger on Baylor -35 as well.
Thanks for the feedback guys all great stuff. It looks like so far the consensus is SMU will score roughly 10 points. I do think SMU will be better offensively this year but at the same time Baylors defense will be better as well. So if most of you are predicting the 10 points by SMU that means Baylor must score 65 or more to cover the 74.5 Total. LY Baylor scored 65 or more just 1 time in 13 games or 7.7%. This furthers my belief at taking the under at 74.5 and find myself wanting to pull the trigger on Baylor -35 as well.
Im with you on the under SMU might even score 2 fgs and thats it, If you could tease up that total to about 81.5 that would be great even more margin of error...
I see Baylor scoring in between 50-60 and It looks like It could be one of those hook trap game, Baylor 60 SMU 14 that means 74
Im with you on the under SMU might even score 2 fgs and thats it, If you could tease up that total to about 81.5 that would be great even more margin of error...
I see Baylor scoring in between 50-60 and It looks like It could be one of those hook trap game, Baylor 60 SMU 14 that means 74
Appreciate the feedback guys all great stuff! It looks like the general consensus is SMU will score 10 or less which IMO is very likely. If that is the case Baylor needs to score 65 or more to cover the total of 74.5. LY Baylor scored 65 or more in just 1 of 13 games or 7.7% giving me even more reason to bet the under. I also see the general public is backing Baylor and rightfully so. My biggest issue is not jumping on this Baylor spread weeks ago before it jumped to -35 but that's my own fault. I do still think Baylor covers the -35 but it kills me that I left all that value on the table. The total on this game has stayed relatively the same and as of right now my favorite total of week 1.
Appreciate the feedback guys all great stuff! It looks like the general consensus is SMU will score 10 or less which IMO is very likely. If that is the case Baylor needs to score 65 or more to cover the total of 74.5. LY Baylor scored 65 or more in just 1 of 13 games or 7.7% giving me even more reason to bet the under. I also see the general public is backing Baylor and rightfully so. My biggest issue is not jumping on this Baylor spread weeks ago before it jumped to -35 but that's my own fault. I do still think Baylor covers the -35 but it kills me that I left all that value on the table. The total on this game has stayed relatively the same and as of right now my favorite total of week 1.
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