As is normally the case for me,
I'm putting a premium on experience and talent along both sides of the line.
Here are the futures wagers that I'll be on this year:
Here are the futures
wagers that I'll be on this year (3 teams in 3 posts):
To win the National
Championship:
Baylor + 2000
The Bears are absolutely
loaded this year, and this is Art Briles' best team yet in Waco. As
always, their offense will be elite with perhaps the best receiving corps in
the country. Three RB return and will be running behind the best offensive
line in the Big 12. Seth Russell is no concern to me - for one, the
Baylor system creates great quarterbacks and for two, he's already shown he can
play at a high level last season. The defense is the biggest reason this
team can win it all, though. Baylor returns all four on the defensive
line and the four in the secondary. This will be a much improved pass
defense, which is even more important in the pass-heavy Big12. While I
think Baylor has a better overall team than TCU, the game between these two
will be at TCU. However, even if that game determines the winner of the
Big12 and likely determines who gets the spot in the playoff, although the
Bears are a small dog in that game (+150 range) Baylor at +2000 is a much wiser
play with much more value than TCU +975. Lastly, while a lot of people
will key in on the Baylor @ TCU game as the winner-take-all, TCU also plays a
more difficult schedule overall than Bayor. Baylor will very likely be
11-0 heading into Fort Worth. Only @OK State is of much concern, but the
Bears are -8.5 currently in that game. TCU, however, has to play @TTech,
@ KState, @Iowa State, @Oklahoma St, and @ Oklahoma. With the TCU defense
likely taking a step back this season especially in the secondary, these high powered offenses could give
the Frogs an L or two in this stretch.
As is normally the case for me,
I'm putting a premium on experience and talent along both sides of the line.
Here are the futures wagers that I'll be on this year:
Here are the futures
wagers that I'll be on this year (3 teams in 3 posts):
To win the National
Championship:
Baylor + 2000
The Bears are absolutely
loaded this year, and this is Art Briles' best team yet in Waco. As
always, their offense will be elite with perhaps the best receiving corps in
the country. Three RB return and will be running behind the best offensive
line in the Big 12. Seth Russell is no concern to me - for one, the
Baylor system creates great quarterbacks and for two, he's already shown he can
play at a high level last season. The defense is the biggest reason this
team can win it all, though. Baylor returns all four on the defensive
line and the four in the secondary. This will be a much improved pass
defense, which is even more important in the pass-heavy Big12. While I
think Baylor has a better overall team than TCU, the game between these two
will be at TCU. However, even if that game determines the winner of the
Big12 and likely determines who gets the spot in the playoff, although the
Bears are a small dog in that game (+150 range) Baylor at +2000 is a much wiser
play with much more value than TCU +975. Lastly, while a lot of people
will key in on the Baylor @ TCU game as the winner-take-all, TCU also plays a
more difficult schedule overall than Bayor. Baylor will very likely be
11-0 heading into Fort Worth. Only @OK State is of much concern, but the
Bears are -8.5 currently in that game. TCU, however, has to play @TTech,
@ KState, @Iowa State, @Oklahoma St, and @ Oklahoma. With the TCU defense
likely taking a step back this season especially in the secondary, these high powered offenses could give
the Frogs an L or two in this stretch.
One can argue that his is the most talented roster in the Pac12. However, it is not much of an argument that this is the most experienced roster in the conference. Bruins have 10 returning starters on offense, an elite offensive line, and Heisman candidate Paul Perkins to carry the load. The defense returns 9 upper classmen. The defensive line should create a strong pass rush (again more important in pass-heavy leagues), Myles Jack leading the LBs, and there is no weakness in this experienced secondary. People will shy away from this team due to the freshman QB Josh Rosen and uncertainty with his play. To me, that's what creates hesitancy and therefore what creates value. He's an elite talent, will be protected by one of the best offensive lines in the country, has a premier RB to shoulder the brunt of this run-first offense, 5 returning receivers, and high quality tight ends to serve as safety valves. Those are all of the ingredients to helping a young QB thrive. Furthermore, Josh Rosen ran the same spread offense in high school as Bosco Prep, so there won't be as much of a learning curve compared to most freshmen. When you look at the schedule, there are two key games as the highest chances of loss... @ Stanford and @ USC. However, UCLA will be coming off a bye week before heading into the Stanford game, so there will be extra prep time there. The USC game is the last game of the season so, at that point of the season, the freshman QB will have gained the vital experience needed throughout the course of the season. If the USC game was earlier in the season, that would be a different story. It seems like the stars are somewhat aligned for this UCLA team this year.
One can argue that his is the most talented roster in the Pac12. However, it is not much of an argument that this is the most experienced roster in the conference. Bruins have 10 returning starters on offense, an elite offensive line, and Heisman candidate Paul Perkins to carry the load. The defense returns 9 upper classmen. The defensive line should create a strong pass rush (again more important in pass-heavy leagues), Myles Jack leading the LBs, and there is no weakness in this experienced secondary. People will shy away from this team due to the freshman QB Josh Rosen and uncertainty with his play. To me, that's what creates hesitancy and therefore what creates value. He's an elite talent, will be protected by one of the best offensive lines in the country, has a premier RB to shoulder the brunt of this run-first offense, 5 returning receivers, and high quality tight ends to serve as safety valves. Those are all of the ingredients to helping a young QB thrive. Furthermore, Josh Rosen ran the same spread offense in high school as Bosco Prep, so there won't be as much of a learning curve compared to most freshmen. When you look at the schedule, there are two key games as the highest chances of loss... @ Stanford and @ USC. However, UCLA will be coming off a bye week before heading into the Stanford game, so there will be extra prep time there. The USC game is the last game of the season so, at that point of the season, the freshman QB will have gained the vital experience needed throughout the course of the season. If the USC game was earlier in the season, that would be a different story. It seems like the stars are somewhat aligned for this UCLA team this year.
For some reason, all of the previews and SEC experts aren't giving the Rebels much of a chance this season. To me, this is the best roster that Huge Freeze has had. Their collapse last year and loss of QB Bo Wallace may have left a sour taste in people's mouths. To a bettor, again, that creates value. The stocked 2013 recruiting class that Freeze put together will come to fruition this year for Ole Miss. It starts with the defense. This is an elite front 7, highlighted by Robert Nkemdiche and 2 other starters along the front 4. The 4th and NT position will be filled by a top-tier JUCO transfer among the best in the country. The secondary will likely take a small step back, but overall this D should be as good as last year's, and at a minimum, keep this team in every game. The offense will be improved with nine returning starters. Most importantly, the offensive line has all 5 starters back and is one of the best in the SEC. Similar to UCLA, people will have doubts about Chad Kelly taking over at QB. He's had several off-the-field issues which led to being kicked off the team at Clemson. This is effectively his last chance to prove he can live up to his talent level and hype coming out of high school. All signs point to Kelly straightening himself out and maturing on and off the field. Couple this chip on his shoulder with LaQuon Treadwell looking to prove he's healthy and ready for the NFL, looking to redeem himself after the goal-line play where he fumbled and was injured leading to the team's downward slide, and the team overall looking to bounce back after collapsing late last season... you can bet this team is hungry and ready to prove people wrong. When you combine that with elite talent up and down the roster, you have a good bet at +5000. Also worth mentioning that the Rebels get Bama early, in week 3, when the Alabama offense and QB situation probably will not yet be clicking on all cylinders. If the Rebs pull that upset, they will be in the driver's seat in the SEC west as I see @ Auburn the only likely loss after that. Even with 1 loss, from the SEC west, that'll get you into the playoff.
Again, the theme here is elite talent, experience, and value created by bettor's uncertainty at the QB spot. If everything was proven and there are no doubts with the roster, that would be reflected in shorter odds. Finding value where the likelihood of the uncertainties becoming strengths is higher than perceived...that is where money can be made.
For some reason, all of the previews and SEC experts aren't giving the Rebels much of a chance this season. To me, this is the best roster that Huge Freeze has had. Their collapse last year and loss of QB Bo Wallace may have left a sour taste in people's mouths. To a bettor, again, that creates value. The stocked 2013 recruiting class that Freeze put together will come to fruition this year for Ole Miss. It starts with the defense. This is an elite front 7, highlighted by Robert Nkemdiche and 2 other starters along the front 4. The 4th and NT position will be filled by a top-tier JUCO transfer among the best in the country. The secondary will likely take a small step back, but overall this D should be as good as last year's, and at a minimum, keep this team in every game. The offense will be improved with nine returning starters. Most importantly, the offensive line has all 5 starters back and is one of the best in the SEC. Similar to UCLA, people will have doubts about Chad Kelly taking over at QB. He's had several off-the-field issues which led to being kicked off the team at Clemson. This is effectively his last chance to prove he can live up to his talent level and hype coming out of high school. All signs point to Kelly straightening himself out and maturing on and off the field. Couple this chip on his shoulder with LaQuon Treadwell looking to prove he's healthy and ready for the NFL, looking to redeem himself after the goal-line play where he fumbled and was injured leading to the team's downward slide, and the team overall looking to bounce back after collapsing late last season... you can bet this team is hungry and ready to prove people wrong. When you combine that with elite talent up and down the roster, you have a good bet at +5000. Also worth mentioning that the Rebels get Bama early, in week 3, when the Alabama offense and QB situation probably will not yet be clicking on all cylinders. If the Rebs pull that upset, they will be in the driver's seat in the SEC west as I see @ Auburn the only likely loss after that. Even with 1 loss, from the SEC west, that'll get you into the playoff.
Again, the theme here is elite talent, experience, and value created by bettor's uncertainty at the QB spot. If everything was proven and there are no doubts with the roster, that would be reflected in shorter odds. Finding value where the likelihood of the uncertainties becoming strengths is higher than perceived...that is where money can be made.
Seth Russell can take over for Baylor no problem. He had 8 TDs in only 85 PA in relief of Bryce Petty last year.
Josh Rosen was big sign for UCLA. He wasn't going to sign with USC with Cody Kessler there. With Hundley leaving, the fit was perfect. UCLA lost three games, ALL AT HOME. Hundley was a Heisman mention at the start of the year, but three home losses.........
With Rosen moving into starting spot, should be seamless. However, rumor has it that Rosen is a Grade-A prick, and that "team" cannot be spelled without "m-e" I'll leave it to Jim Mora to smooth out any ruffled feathers that may occur in the locker room.
I wouldn't trust Chad Kelly at all. Like a Winston wannabe, doesn't know how good he has it. Unlike Florida State, Clemson coach actually has rules..............
Seth Russell can take over for Baylor no problem. He had 8 TDs in only 85 PA in relief of Bryce Petty last year.
Josh Rosen was big sign for UCLA. He wasn't going to sign with USC with Cody Kessler there. With Hundley leaving, the fit was perfect. UCLA lost three games, ALL AT HOME. Hundley was a Heisman mention at the start of the year, but three home losses.........
With Rosen moving into starting spot, should be seamless. However, rumor has it that Rosen is a Grade-A prick, and that "team" cannot be spelled without "m-e" I'll leave it to Jim Mora to smooth out any ruffled feathers that may occur in the locker room.
I wouldn't trust Chad Kelly at all. Like a Winston wannabe, doesn't know how good he has it. Unlike Florida State, Clemson coach actually has rules..............
I think Oregon can be had because their head coach is Larry Coker v2. I'm just not sure Mora can do it without a QB. His offensive schemes are so limited. I would think of taking Stanford as a longshot to win it all.
I think Oregon can be had because their head coach is Larry Coker v2. I'm just not sure Mora can do it without a QB. His offensive schemes are so limited. I would think of taking Stanford as a longshot to win it all.
As is normally the case for me, I'm putting a premium on experience and talent along both sides of the line. Here are the futures wagers that I'll be on this year:
Here are the futures wagers that I'll be on this year (3 teams in 3 posts):
To win the National Championship:
Baylor + 2000
The Bears are absolutely loaded this year, and this is Art Briles' best team yet in Waco. As always, their offense will be elite with perhaps the best receiving corps in the country. Three RB return and will be running behind the best offensive line in the Big 12. Seth Russell is no concern to me - for one, the Baylor system creates great quarterbacks and for two, he's already shown he can play at a high level last season. The defense is the biggest reason this team can win it all, though. Baylor returns all four on the defensive line and the four in the secondary. This will be a much improved pass defense, which is even more important in the pass-heavy Big12. While I think Baylor has a better overall team than TCU, the game between these two will be at TCU. However, even if that game determines the winner of the Big12 and likely determines who gets the spot in the playoff, although the Bears are a small dog in that game (+150 range) Baylor at +2000 is a much wiser play with much more value than TCU +975. Lastly, while a lot of people will key in on the Baylor @ TCU game as the winner-take-all, TCU also plays a more difficult schedule overall than Bayor. Baylor will very likely be 11-0 heading into Fort Worth. Only @OK State is of much concern, but the Bears are -8.5 currently in that game. TCU, however, has to play @TTech, @ KState, @Iowa State, @Oklahoma St, and @ Oklahoma. With the TCU defense likely taking a step back this season especially in the secondary, these high powered offenses could give the Frogs an L or two in this stretch.
Oklahoma State has dominated Baylor and gave the Bears all they wanted by a true Freshman Qb in his first start, then beat Ou and Washington in the bowl game. I expect this line to be a pick em by gameday.
As is normally the case for me, I'm putting a premium on experience and talent along both sides of the line. Here are the futures wagers that I'll be on this year:
Here are the futures wagers that I'll be on this year (3 teams in 3 posts):
To win the National Championship:
Baylor + 2000
The Bears are absolutely loaded this year, and this is Art Briles' best team yet in Waco. As always, their offense will be elite with perhaps the best receiving corps in the country. Three RB return and will be running behind the best offensive line in the Big 12. Seth Russell is no concern to me - for one, the Baylor system creates great quarterbacks and for two, he's already shown he can play at a high level last season. The defense is the biggest reason this team can win it all, though. Baylor returns all four on the defensive line and the four in the secondary. This will be a much improved pass defense, which is even more important in the pass-heavy Big12. While I think Baylor has a better overall team than TCU, the game between these two will be at TCU. However, even if that game determines the winner of the Big12 and likely determines who gets the spot in the playoff, although the Bears are a small dog in that game (+150 range) Baylor at +2000 is a much wiser play with much more value than TCU +975. Lastly, while a lot of people will key in on the Baylor @ TCU game as the winner-take-all, TCU also plays a more difficult schedule overall than Bayor. Baylor will very likely be 11-0 heading into Fort Worth. Only @OK State is of much concern, but the Bears are -8.5 currently in that game. TCU, however, has to play @TTech, @ KState, @Iowa State, @Oklahoma St, and @ Oklahoma. With the TCU defense likely taking a step back this season especially in the secondary, these high powered offenses could give the Frogs an L or two in this stretch.
Oklahoma State has dominated Baylor and gave the Bears all they wanted by a true Freshman Qb in his first start, then beat Ou and Washington in the bowl game. I expect this line to be a pick em by gameday.
Oklahoma State has dominated Baylor and gave the Bears all they wanted by a true Freshman Qb in his first start, then beat Ou and Washington in the bowl game. I expect this line to be a pick em by gameday.
I'd be very interested in exchanging information with you if you want to take Oklahoma State PK with me? Hell, I'll even give you the Pokes +1 (-115).
Oklahoma State has dominated Baylor and gave the Bears all they wanted by a true Freshman Qb in his first start, then beat Ou and Washington in the bowl game. I expect this line to be a pick em by gameday.
I'd be very interested in exchanging information with you if you want to take Oklahoma State PK with me? Hell, I'll even give you the Pokes +1 (-115).
Why would I do that when you said Pokes currently getting +8.5? I'm just saying I believe this spread will be around a pick by gameday. I think Pokes could be undervalued until then anf possibly undefeated, and Baylor having a loss before then....
Why would I do that when you said Pokes currently getting +8.5? I'm just saying I believe this spread will be around a pick by gameday. I think Pokes could be undervalued until then anf possibly undefeated, and Baylor having a loss before then....
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