OHIO STATE (13-1 SU / 9-5 ATS / 12-2 OU) vs. OREGON (13-1 / 9-4 / 7-6-1)
Monday, Jan 12 at 8:30p E
JERRYWORLD (art. turf)
*NOT Jerry's World wtf (think Wallyworld)
line betting trend
open now spread ML OU
277 Ohio State 68' 7442%68% 42%
278 Oregon -7-658%32% 58%
Doesn't look like the Ducks have much of a chance here...
*If Bama couldn't stop the Buckeyes...how can the Ducks?
*Urban Meyer has covered 34 of his last 43 games given a week to prepare and is 13-2 ATS as a dog
*Ducks have now lost their top WR / best OT / 1st team AA CB/ 1st tm all-conf TE / 2 most explosive WR's...in fact the ONLY offensive player to start every game at the same position is QB Mariota
*due to the fact Oregon's spring semester has begun / OSU's has not...the Ducks are restricted to 20 hours of work this week (NCAA rules)...OSU has no restrictions on practice/meeting time
Humble when ambitious - gracious when successful - resilient when you fail.
OHIO STATE (13-1 SU / 9-5 ATS / 12-2 OU) vs. OREGON (13-1 / 9-4 / 7-6-1)
Monday, Jan 12 at 8:30p E
JERRYWORLD (art. turf)
*NOT Jerry's World wtf (think Wallyworld)
line betting trend
open now spread ML OU
277 Ohio State 68' 7442%68% 42%
278 Oregon -7-658%32% 58%
Doesn't look like the Ducks have much of a chance here...
*If Bama couldn't stop the Buckeyes...how can the Ducks?
*Urban Meyer has covered 34 of his last 43 games given a week to prepare and is 13-2 ATS as a dog
*Ducks have now lost their top WR / best OT / 1st team AA CB/ 1st tm all-conf TE / 2 most explosive WR's...in fact the ONLY offensive player to start every game at the same position is QB Mariota
*due to the fact Oregon's spring semester has begun / OSU's has not...the Ducks are restricted to 20 hours of work this week (NCAA rules)...OSU has no restrictions on practice/meeting time
$ special note here.....a recent study of conference officials revealed considerable biases....that varied by conference
* the Big 12 officials...seemed to be more likely to penalize up tempo squads.....care to guess who is officiating THIS game?
And to tell you the truth...if Ohio St and QB Jones play like they have the past few games...the Ducks will have a tough time winning and maybe even staying in this one.
VALUE?
I think the value is probably with Ohio St at close to a TD.
Given the high level of play by Ohio St and the number of players Oregon has lost...I don't see how the Ducks should be favored by more than 2'-3 pts
The total seems high.... but I don't think either team can stop the other so 75ish maybe just about right.
note: OSU is 12-2 over TY (#1) and a 28-12 over run....B10 was 7-2-1 over in bowls...P12 6-2 over
Humble when ambitious - gracious when successful - resilient when you fail.
$ special note here.....a recent study of conference officials revealed considerable biases....that varied by conference
* the Big 12 officials...seemed to be more likely to penalize up tempo squads.....care to guess who is officiating THIS game?
And to tell you the truth...if Ohio St and QB Jones play like they have the past few games...the Ducks will have a tough time winning and maybe even staying in this one.
VALUE?
I think the value is probably with Ohio St at close to a TD.
Given the high level of play by Ohio St and the number of players Oregon has lost...I don't see how the Ducks should be favored by more than 2'-3 pts
The total seems high.... but I don't think either team can stop the other so 75ish maybe just about right.
note: OSU is 12-2 over TY (#1) and a 28-12 over run....B10 was 7-2-1 over in bowls...P12 6-2 over
*Ducks start 4 SR / 2 JR / 3 SO / 2 FR (7 FR/SO BU)
*Bucks start 4 SR / 2 JR / 3 SO / 2 FR (5 FR BU)
Here are the offensive tempo rankings of Ohio State's recent opponents...
Bama #81...Wisky 104...Mich 126...Indiana 21...Minny 101...Mich ST 94...Illinois 84...Penn ST 91...Rutgers 108......get the idea?...
The Buckeyes have not been strong vs the run...are young and still learning DC (technically) Ash's new 4-3 OVER / Cover 4 D.
Given a little over a week to prepare...can their physical (and more talented) DL get penetration / disrupt the timing of the Duck O...making Mariota uncomfortable and force the Ducks into 3rd and long situations?....Ducks are strong here as well but rushing the passer in passing situations is the Buckeyes defensive strength....and something they need to do here
*Most teams send in an extra DB (nickel) when facing the Ducks....Buckeyes like to use SLB Darron Lee (6-2/225..rFR) in place of the nickel back when they can get away with it....if Oregon is not able to expose Lee in coverage and he is able to blow-up their dangerous screen game...this could take away a significant part of their offense
note: If you'd like a preview of what might happen here (kinda sorta) check out the Duck / Michigan St game....as OSU's new D is very similar to Sparty's...main difference being OSU plays their safeties a little deeper....giving them a little less run support and forcing their LB's to cover more ground....CB's in press coverage but sometimes a bit deeper as well...Ash preferring a more hands-off technique
*KEY: IRONICALLY.... the Buckeye offensive staff spent a lot of time this past summer with Chip Kelly...helping them develop their perimeter O as a supplement / constraint to their inside zone...as Urban knew his Florida power O / gap blocking schemes weren't gonna cut it now
So Urban has a great understanding of what Oregon is trying to do...as they now do a lot of the same stuff
Humble when ambitious - gracious when successful - resilient when you fail.
*Ducks start 4 SR / 2 JR / 3 SO / 2 FR (7 FR/SO BU)
*Bucks start 4 SR / 2 JR / 3 SO / 2 FR (5 FR BU)
Here are the offensive tempo rankings of Ohio State's recent opponents...
Bama #81...Wisky 104...Mich 126...Indiana 21...Minny 101...Mich ST 94...Illinois 84...Penn ST 91...Rutgers 108......get the idea?...
The Buckeyes have not been strong vs the run...are young and still learning DC (technically) Ash's new 4-3 OVER / Cover 4 D.
Given a little over a week to prepare...can their physical (and more talented) DL get penetration / disrupt the timing of the Duck O...making Mariota uncomfortable and force the Ducks into 3rd and long situations?....Ducks are strong here as well but rushing the passer in passing situations is the Buckeyes defensive strength....and something they need to do here
*Most teams send in an extra DB (nickel) when facing the Ducks....Buckeyes like to use SLB Darron Lee (6-2/225..rFR) in place of the nickel back when they can get away with it....if Oregon is not able to expose Lee in coverage and he is able to blow-up their dangerous screen game...this could take away a significant part of their offense
note: If you'd like a preview of what might happen here (kinda sorta) check out the Duck / Michigan St game....as OSU's new D is very similar to Sparty's...main difference being OSU plays their safeties a little deeper....giving them a little less run support and forcing their LB's to cover more ground....CB's in press coverage but sometimes a bit deeper as well...Ash preferring a more hands-off technique
*KEY: IRONICALLY.... the Buckeye offensive staff spent a lot of time this past summer with Chip Kelly...helping them develop their perimeter O as a supplement / constraint to their inside zone...as Urban knew his Florida power O / gap blocking schemes weren't gonna cut it now
So Urban has a great understanding of what Oregon is trying to do...as they now do a lot of the same stuff
*Ducks start 3 SR / 6 JR / 1 SO / 1 FR (7 FR/SO BU)
On the surface this looks like a really bad match-up for Oregon
*check out these Buckeye rushing numbers vs pretty tough D's
01/01/15Alabama 42X / 281 yds 6.69/rush2 TD
12/06/14Wisconsin 38X / 301 yds 7.92/rush4 TD
11/08/14Mich St. 41X / 268 yds 6.54/rush4 TD
11/15/14Minn 38X / 289 yds 7.61/rush1 TD
*note: vs Bama and Wisky RB Elliot has rushed 40X for 450 yds (11.3 yds/rush)
'3rd string' QB Jones is 30-52 / 500 yds / 4TD -1 INT / sacked one time
GIVEN: Ohio State is gonna get a ton of yards...can the (bend but not break) style of the Oregon D limit big plays and get stops/force TO's when they have to? (like vs Fla St)
note: not only is their O tough at finishing drives...but Oregon's D ranks 13th...in stopping drives....and toughened up late in the season...as new DC Pellum tinkered with different schemes / looks....(vs FSU..Zona..Tree and Utah the Ducks only allowed 21.3 yards/pt) and note 18.5 yds/pt for the year < same as TCU D
Although one of nation's best in short yardage situations...Ducks are one of nation's worst on passing downs (ranking #126 in rushing yards allowed / 80th passing)...this despite rushing the passer well (28th sack %)
While not only is Ohio State familiar with Oregon's O...maybe of some help here is that now the Ducks also are very accustomed to seeing what Ohio St does offensively....plus now they have 2 games to scout Buckeye QB Jones
Humble when ambitious - gracious when successful - resilient when you fail.
*Ducks start 3 SR / 6 JR / 1 SO / 1 FR (7 FR/SO BU)
On the surface this looks like a really bad match-up for Oregon
*check out these Buckeye rushing numbers vs pretty tough D's
01/01/15Alabama 42X / 281 yds 6.69/rush2 TD
12/06/14Wisconsin 38X / 301 yds 7.92/rush4 TD
11/08/14Mich St. 41X / 268 yds 6.54/rush4 TD
11/15/14Minn 38X / 289 yds 7.61/rush1 TD
*note: vs Bama and Wisky RB Elliot has rushed 40X for 450 yds (11.3 yds/rush)
'3rd string' QB Jones is 30-52 / 500 yds / 4TD -1 INT / sacked one time
GIVEN: Ohio State is gonna get a ton of yards...can the (bend but not break) style of the Oregon D limit big plays and get stops/force TO's when they have to? (like vs Fla St)
note: not only is their O tough at finishing drives...but Oregon's D ranks 13th...in stopping drives....and toughened up late in the season...as new DC Pellum tinkered with different schemes / looks....(vs FSU..Zona..Tree and Utah the Ducks only allowed 21.3 yards/pt) and note 18.5 yds/pt for the year < same as TCU D
Although one of nation's best in short yardage situations...Ducks are one of nation's worst on passing downs (ranking #126 in rushing yards allowed / 80th passing)...this despite rushing the passer well (28th sack %)
While not only is Ohio State familiar with Oregon's O...maybe of some help here is that now the Ducks also are very accustomed to seeing what Ohio St does offensively....plus now they have 2 games to scout Buckeye QB Jones
Oregon with a slight overall edge in ST efficiency (#10 > #23)
Ohio St uses field position to their advantage a little better (#4 > #7)
*of some concern here?...the Ducks punter/kicker/deep snapper/holder....are all FRESHMEN
OSU is young as well...K is FR / P and H are SO / LS a JR
SUMMARY
To like the Ducks here requires a rather large leap of faith...something you want to avoid usually in handicapping a game....as Ohio State is maybe playing better than any other team at the moment it appears...AND getting (what looks like) way too many points
But to me the Ducks have been building for this moment for several years...the Buckeyes have been just too UP and DOWN in a year of learning a new defense AND perfecting an offensive system the Ducks have down to a science.
Led by one of the best combinations of passing / running / decision making... in the history of college football...my hunch here is that this is THEIR time... and they simply find a way to get this done
Humble when ambitious - gracious when successful - resilient when you fail.
Oregon with a slight overall edge in ST efficiency (#10 > #23)
Ohio St uses field position to their advantage a little better (#4 > #7)
*of some concern here?...the Ducks punter/kicker/deep snapper/holder....are all FRESHMEN
OSU is young as well...K is FR / P and H are SO / LS a JR
SUMMARY
To like the Ducks here requires a rather large leap of faith...something you want to avoid usually in handicapping a game....as Ohio State is maybe playing better than any other team at the moment it appears...AND getting (what looks like) way too many points
But to me the Ducks have been building for this moment for several years...the Buckeyes have been just too UP and DOWN in a year of learning a new defense AND perfecting an offensive system the Ducks have down to a science.
Led by one of the best combinations of passing / running / decision making... in the history of college football...my hunch here is that this is THEIR time... and they simply find a way to get this done
$$ I like the Ducks here to win the game and therefore probably cover...for me a one unit only play at -6.....in-game or halftime maybe a better strategy....if Oregon can physically match Ohio State in the trenches here they win going away...if not they likely lose and this will be apparent very early in the game
*although the total seems high...I would play the over or stay away... as neither team will be able to stop the other...if you like the UNDER... 1H under 37 not a bad idea
$$ I like the Ducks here to win the game and therefore probably cover...for me a one unit only play at -6.....in-game or halftime maybe a better strategy....if Oregon can physically match Ohio State in the trenches here they win going away...if not they likely lose and this will be apparent very early in the game
*although the total seems high...I would play the over or stay away... as neither team will be able to stop the other...if you like the UNDER... 1H under 37 not a bad idea
A lot of folks are saying OSU will keep Oregon's offense off the field by working the clock..The ducks are the one team that can score lightning quick and not need a lot of time.
Oregon's D also got time to prepare for the fact that #12 can/will run the ball..He caught bama off guard.
A lot of folks are saying OSU will keep Oregon's offense off the field by working the clock..The ducks are the one team that can score lightning quick and not need a lot of time.
Oregon's D also got time to prepare for the fact that #12 can/will run the ball..He caught bama off guard.
Oregon's defense is underrated and I think they can stop Ezekial, score plenty, and force the 3rd stringer to sling it around. I haven't seen enough stats to support Cardale Jones' ability to keep up with Mariota and the Air Raid. My pick is Oregon wins and covers the -6 but falls short of hitting the overs due to Ohio St defense stepping up and causing Oregon to have longer drives than usual. Let's go with 41-28 Ducks.
Oregon's defense is underrated and I think they can stop Ezekial, score plenty, and force the 3rd stringer to sling it around. I haven't seen enough stats to support Cardale Jones' ability to keep up with Mariota and the Air Raid. My pick is Oregon wins and covers the -6 but falls short of hitting the overs due to Ohio St defense stepping up and causing Oregon to have longer drives than usual. Let's go with 41-28 Ducks.
BTW....I'll be enjoying a bit better than most on the 35 yd line or so....
................Ducks side of course
Ha! no kidding? your going to the game huh? good for you. Enjoy! Thanks for the write up. Some very good info and not pretentious like most of these other jokers that have a "lock" when will we admit that the past is the past and this game is in the future. Nobody really knows what will happen and circumstances will change the way this game ends up. All we can do is make an educated guess based on the information we have at our disposal. So thanks for all of this intel. BOL!
BTW....I'll be enjoying a bit better than most on the 35 yd line or so....
................Ducks side of course
Ha! no kidding? your going to the game huh? good for you. Enjoy! Thanks for the write up. Some very good info and not pretentious like most of these other jokers that have a "lock" when will we admit that the past is the past and this game is in the future. Nobody really knows what will happen and circumstances will change the way this game ends up. All we can do is make an educated guess based on the information we have at our disposal. So thanks for all of this intel. BOL!
I believe it's time for the Ducks to shine. They have the team with the desire and will to win to show the whole world that they deserve this NC title.
I believe it's time for the Ducks to shine. They have the team with the desire and will to win to show the whole world that they deserve this NC title.
Thanks for the info. And good luck:) going with Ohio state. I always bet against the heisman winner on championship games. Doesn't always work out but just my personal trends I follow.
Thanks for the info. And good luck:) going with Ohio state. I always bet against the heisman winner on championship games. Doesn't always work out but just my personal trends I follow.
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