And then there were four... No, not as in the Final Four, we've been there done that. Four teams left to play in the 2014-2015 season and while we wait for the National Championship we get Toledo vs. Arkansas State in the Go Daddy Bowl. Arky State is the poster child for this one, now playing for the fourth time in a row. They have won the last two over Ball State last year and Kent State the year before and lost three years ago to Arkansas State. Toledo, on the other hand, was vying for a MAC crown last season but lost their last two and didn't even make a bowl. The previous year they got taken behind the woodshed by Utah State. So, quite simply, Toledo has quite a bad taste in their mouth come December and beyond - Last bowl appearance was brutal and they blew an opportunity to get back last year. And now this season, where they battled to a 7-1 conference record and a tie in the Mac West with Northern Illinois, a team they lost to by three. Arky State has been to this bowl before and their success is dependent solely on the circumstance of their MAC opponent. Let me break it down...
2011 vs. Northern Illinois - Their opponent was the class of the MAC and the result showed as Arky State lost 38-20. Ryan Aplin had a tough day throwing three interceptions.
2012 vs. Kent State - A very good team, but not Northern Illinois, who as we all know went undefeated on the year and got the BCS invite to the Orange Bowl. Kent State lost in double OT to Northern Illinois, which allowed the Huskies to head to a bowl game vs. Florida State. Aplin had an opportunity at revenge and he managed a great game leading his team to a victory over Kent State
2013 vs. Ball State - Again, a very good team, but not Northern Illinois as they lost to them 48-27 in conference play. Again, Arky State was able to handle their MAC foe winning a close one 23-20.
Now, 2014 vs. Toledo, who in my opinion is just as good, if not better than Northern Illinois despite the loss. Toledo is a complete team, much like Northern Illinois was in 2011 and unlike Kent State and Ball State the two previous seasons. Arky State, on the other hand, has solid defensive numbers, but they play some rough teams in the Sun Belt and the MAC hierarchy is a clear and evident step up. Actually, a leap up for some Sun Belt teams. Arky State, in my opinion, not as good as they have been in the last few seasons, where they were able to beat second rung MAC teams. Arky State is not even the best team in the Sun Belt conference this season. They went 5-3 in conference play this season vs. Toledo's 7-1 and only blemish a three point loss to Northern Illinois.
A talent mismatch here and add some fuel to the Toledo side to grab a bowl victory after missing out last season and getting crushed two years ago vs. Utah State. The set up tonight favors a Toledo statement and I think the talent gap of a top class MAC team vs an above average Sun Belt team is a recipe for disaster for Arky State, who basically is existing in a mundane bowl world with four consecutive trips to the Go Daddy bowl.
Toledo first half -2.5 -105 (105 units to win 100)
Toledo -3.5 -110 (132 units to win 120)
Toledo team total over 36 -115 (115 units to win 100)