Talk about a hell of a week 6 in CFB. Couldn't ask for anything better from a spectator standpoint.
Hard to believe it's week 7 already. Still floating around the break even mark unfortunately but hopefully getting a handle on things for a second half of the season run. Way better than the alternative I suppose.
On to week 7, one early play I like a lot and looking at some others.
Oregon -3 -
I love this spot for them. Coming off a loss to Zona and heading on the road to a to play an overrated UCLA team that has been skating on thin ice since week 1 against VA in a hostile environment. I don't see Oregon letting that loss last week end their season. Especially after a lot of big teams going down and its obviously clear there will most likely be a few 1 loss teams in the playoff. Rather, I think they check the tape and figure out why there Run D got thrashed so bad and fix some leaks. If UCLA tries to turn this game into a track meet they get left in the dust. Oregon has the speed on defense to contain a knicked up Hundley. UCLA 71st ranked run Offense as opposed to Zona(#7 passing, #28 rushing). 3u play for me will add some more with the local if I like the number Saturday.
Talk about a hell of a week 6 in CFB. Couldn't ask for anything better from a spectator standpoint.
Hard to believe it's week 7 already. Still floating around the break even mark unfortunately but hopefully getting a handle on things for a second half of the season run. Way better than the alternative I suppose.
On to week 7, one early play I like a lot and looking at some others.
Oregon -3 -
I love this spot for them. Coming off a loss to Zona and heading on the road to a to play an overrated UCLA team that has been skating on thin ice since week 1 against VA in a hostile environment. I don't see Oregon letting that loss last week end their season. Especially after a lot of big teams going down and its obviously clear there will most likely be a few 1 loss teams in the playoff. Rather, I think they check the tape and figure out why there Run D got thrashed so bad and fix some leaks. If UCLA tries to turn this game into a track meet they get left in the dust. Oregon has the speed on defense to contain a knicked up Hundley. UCLA 71st ranked run Offense as opposed to Zona(#7 passing, #28 rushing). 3u play for me will add some more with the local if I like the number Saturday.
LSU -2: I'll keep this simple. I think Muschamp is a hack and Florida will never return to the elite ranks of CFB with him there. Driscel is garbage. Although they cashed a bet for me last week, that was more about the spot in the schedule than anything for me. Not taking anything away from a young, talented, athletic Tennessee team, hanging 12 points on them and winning by 2 does not impress me. LSU is coming off a quality beating by Auburn and looking to get back on track in this ridiculously tough SEC. I'll gladly lay less than a FG as the Tigers head down to FLA. 1unit for now
CMU +10.5: Not going to take credit for this one, it intrigued me and I read MegaLocks thread which hit the nail on the head and hammered home what I had in mind. 1unit here
LSU -2: I'll keep this simple. I think Muschamp is a hack and Florida will never return to the elite ranks of CFB with him there. Driscel is garbage. Although they cashed a bet for me last week, that was more about the spot in the schedule than anything for me. Not taking anything away from a young, talented, athletic Tennessee team, hanging 12 points on them and winning by 2 does not impress me. LSU is coming off a quality beating by Auburn and looking to get back on track in this ridiculously tough SEC. I'll gladly lay less than a FG as the Tigers head down to FLA. 1unit for now
CMU +10.5: Not going to take credit for this one, it intrigued me and I read MegaLocks thread which hit the nail on the head and hammered home what I had in mind. 1unit here
Colts -2.5@Houston - Not a huge fan of betting against decent teams as a home dog usually but I like this spot. Big early divisional matchup here. Colts have been playing good ball and Andrew Luck is a stud. The colts run defense is solid enough to slow down Houston's running attack. If Fitz is good enough to beat the colts with his arm then so be it. I will lay the points and take the colts to take the outright lead in the division here. Both teams have non division games next week and there is no reason to think about this being a spot to overlook anyone. Colts coming off a nice win vs Baltimore and the Texans looking to rebound from a loss against the Boys. Colts 2-0 ATS on the road this year as well.
LTL, MWS, Joe - Thanks for stopping by guys BOL this week.
Colts -2.5@Houston - Not a huge fan of betting against decent teams as a home dog usually but I like this spot. Big early divisional matchup here. Colts have been playing good ball and Andrew Luck is a stud. The colts run defense is solid enough to slow down Houston's running attack. If Fitz is good enough to beat the colts with his arm then so be it. I will lay the points and take the colts to take the outright lead in the division here. Both teams have non division games next week and there is no reason to think about this being a spot to overlook anyone. Colts coming off a nice win vs Baltimore and the Texans looking to rebound from a loss against the Boys. Colts 2-0 ATS on the road this year as well.
LTL, MWS, Joe - Thanks for stopping by guys BOL this week.
Baylor - 10 - Obviously would've liked to see this at 9.5 and still might before kick. Both teams 4-0-1 and 4-0 ATS this year respectively. This is a schedule spot fade for me. Baylor has potentially a few "should win" games in line after this against WVU and KU before taking on Oklahoma, and coming off a win in Texas where they showed their defense is good enough to win games when Petty doesn't perform well. While TCU is coming off a huge win against Oklahoma and might be a little hungover after that emotional ride. Baylor is a tough, tough team to play at home and if they really have that killer mentality that most great teams have, this is the spot where they look at the Oklahoma loss and know they can put a stranglehold on the Big 12. TCU's #7 ranked Defense against Baylor's #2 ranked Offense. Baylor's #4 ranked D against TCU's #16 ranked offense. Neither has had a strong schedule up to this point to earn those stats with the exception of the TCU victory at Oklahoma. On another day, another week, in another situation this is a no play for me or possibly TCU. But this is just a rough spot for TCU, this week will really show what they are made of.
Oklahoma State -20 - This Kansas team is awful. OSU brings in 31st ranked passing offense, if they air it out, and I expect them to, this game could get out of hand in a hurry. It's going to take some time to repair the damage that was done to this KU program. Their running game ranked 70th in the country is the better aspect of their offense, going up against a top 30 run D. If they get behind and are forced to throw to try and get back in I don't think they get the job done, even against OSU's suspect secondary.
Baylor - 10 - Obviously would've liked to see this at 9.5 and still might before kick. Both teams 4-0-1 and 4-0 ATS this year respectively. This is a schedule spot fade for me. Baylor has potentially a few "should win" games in line after this against WVU and KU before taking on Oklahoma, and coming off a win in Texas where they showed their defense is good enough to win games when Petty doesn't perform well. While TCU is coming off a huge win against Oklahoma and might be a little hungover after that emotional ride. Baylor is a tough, tough team to play at home and if they really have that killer mentality that most great teams have, this is the spot where they look at the Oklahoma loss and know they can put a stranglehold on the Big 12. TCU's #7 ranked Defense against Baylor's #2 ranked Offense. Baylor's #4 ranked D against TCU's #16 ranked offense. Neither has had a strong schedule up to this point to earn those stats with the exception of the TCU victory at Oklahoma. On another day, another week, in another situation this is a no play for me or possibly TCU. But this is just a rough spot for TCU, this week will really show what they are made of.
Oklahoma State -20 - This Kansas team is awful. OSU brings in 31st ranked passing offense, if they air it out, and I expect them to, this game could get out of hand in a hurry. It's going to take some time to repair the damage that was done to this KU program. Their running game ranked 70th in the country is the better aspect of their offense, going up against a top 30 run D. If they get behind and are forced to throw to try and get back in I don't think they get the job done, even against OSU's suspect secondary.
Hit the colts for a nice win last night. Grabbed the Colts -4 (+138) on 5dimes dynamic lines and colts -3 with the local(both unposted) so it was a nice night. Always nice to win the close ones.
Added
some more to Baylor at -8.5
Memphis -8.5 1u
New Mexico State +6.5 1u
New Mexico State ML +210 .5u
A little disappointed to see 3 lines move against my early numbers with Oregon moving under a FG(this one hurts) LSU down to -1.5 and Baylor. But hey, that's part of the game. Don't have time for any write ups on these but best of luck hope everyone crushes the books this weekend.
Hit the colts for a nice win last night. Grabbed the Colts -4 (+138) on 5dimes dynamic lines and colts -3 with the local(both unposted) so it was a nice night. Always nice to win the close ones.
Added
some more to Baylor at -8.5
Memphis -8.5 1u
New Mexico State +6.5 1u
New Mexico State ML +210 .5u
A little disappointed to see 3 lines move against my early numbers with Oregon moving under a FG(this one hurts) LSU down to -1.5 and Baylor. But hey, that's part of the game. Don't have time for any write ups on these but best of luck hope everyone crushes the books this weekend.
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