As a ML parlay better I've noticed over the years that many of my parlays were ruined by taking those favorites that looked really good on the road with a line that is between 6-8 points so I started to look deeper into it and it seems those home dogs win more times than not. Also, these lines are closing lines so this season...
New Mexico St. +7.5 v Cal Poly (Win 28-10)
Western Kentucky +7 v Bowling Green (Win 59-31)
Texas-San Antonio +7.5 v Arizona (Loss 23-26)
Tulane +7.5 v Georgia Tech (Loss 21-38)
Bowling Green +8.5 v Indiana (Win 45-42)
South Carolina +6.5 v Georgia (Win 38-35)
Texas +8.5 v UCLA (Loss 17-20)
Kansas St. +7 (Loss 14-20)
With that said, albeit I've noticed it's a more popular pick on the board, West Virginia fits the bill at the moment. Worth a stab at the ML but definitely a play on the spread if the line is the same around gametime.
Good Luck if you choose to use this to your advantage. My apologies if I posted this at the wrong time and it turns out to be a loss for you.
As a ML parlay better I've noticed over the years that many of my parlays were ruined by taking those favorites that looked really good on the road with a line that is between 6-8 points so I started to look deeper into it and it seems those home dogs win more times than not. Also, these lines are closing lines so this season...
New Mexico St. +7.5 v Cal Poly (Win 28-10)
Western Kentucky +7 v Bowling Green (Win 59-31)
Texas-San Antonio +7.5 v Arizona (Loss 23-26)
Tulane +7.5 v Georgia Tech (Loss 21-38)
Bowling Green +8.5 v Indiana (Win 45-42)
South Carolina +6.5 v Georgia (Win 38-35)
Texas +8.5 v UCLA (Loss 17-20)
Kansas St. +7 (Loss 14-20)
With that said, albeit I've noticed it's a more popular pick on the board, West Virginia fits the bill at the moment. Worth a stab at the ML but definitely a play on the spread if the line is the same around gametime.
Good Luck if you choose to use this to your advantage. My apologies if I posted this at the wrong time and it turns out to be a loss for you.
It's worth a shot. I did that last week with Bowling Green but I'm too stubborn with betting because, as I said, I'm more of a ML parlay guy so I like the chalk and didn't take Carolina or Texas last week but I should have.
But even if you don't sprinkle a little on the ML, the spread seems like a must.
It's worth a shot. I did that last week with Bowling Green but I'm too stubborn with betting because, as I said, I'm more of a ML parlay guy so I like the chalk and didn't take Carolina or Texas last week but I should have.
But even if you don't sprinkle a little on the ML, the spread seems like a must.
littlejohnny -- Yea, that is something that I may miss when figuring these things out but, for the most part, they're usually home games. And like Rush said, still in Texas, they'll have more fans there than UCLA.
mp -- If you find any others that I missed, let me know. May even help the numbers.
littlejohnny -- Yea, that is something that I may miss when figuring these things out but, for the most part, they're usually home games. And like Rush said, still in Texas, they'll have more fans there than UCLA.
mp -- If you find any others that I missed, let me know. May even help the numbers.
The 2013-14 record was 30-19 ATS. That included 15 straight up winners and 3 dogs that were getting 6.5 points that lost by 7 so I guess it depends on your line (those were the only instances in which a favorite covered by a half and 2 of those games were OT finishes). And this record doesn't include bowl games, obviously, because they're all neutral sites (for the most part).
The 2013-14 record was 30-19 ATS. That included 15 straight up winners and 3 dogs that were getting 6.5 points that lost by 7 so I guess it depends on your line (those were the only instances in which a favorite covered by a half and 2 of those games were OT finishes). And this record doesn't include bowl games, obviously, because they're all neutral sites (for the most part).
The reasoning behind this may have to do with teasers.
If the books have a dog they think has a good chance to win outright, they will sometimes make the line a 6 to 8.5 point favorite, because they know teaser players loves those numbers, and the one dog winning will wipe out a huge number of teasers.
If the books don't think the dog can win (but will lose a close game) they may make the line 3.5 to 5.5 instead to not expose themselves to teasers.
The reasoning behind this may have to do with teasers.
If the books have a dog they think has a good chance to win outright, they will sometimes make the line a 6 to 8.5 point favorite, because they know teaser players loves those numbers, and the one dog winning will wipe out a huge number of teasers.
If the books don't think the dog can win (but will lose a close game) they may make the line 3.5 to 5.5 instead to not expose themselves to teasers.
The reasoning behind this may have to do with teasers.
If the books have a dog they think has a good chance to win outright, they will sometimes make the line a 6 to 8.5 point favorite, because they know teaser players loves those numbers, and the one dog winning will wipe out a huge number of teasers.
If the books don't think the dog can win (but will lose a close game) they may make the line 3.5 to 5.5 instead to not expose themselves to teasers.
The reasoning behind this may have to do with teasers.
If the books have a dog they think has a good chance to win outright, they will sometimes make the line a 6 to 8.5 point favorite, because they know teaser players loves those numbers, and the one dog winning will wipe out a huge number of teasers.
If the books don't think the dog can win (but will lose a close game) they may make the line 3.5 to 5.5 instead to not expose themselves to teasers.
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