Quote Originally Posted by bkwy:
Great stuff, JFen. Agree w/ you about VaTech for sure (EC will play them tough).
One minor quibble. You wrote:
That said, Air Force's opponent this week, Georgia State, does
not have anywhere near Wyoming's defensive personnel. In fact, Georgia
State might be the least talented defense in the country.
They're not even the worst defense in their state. See what Ga. Southern did to Savannah St. last wk?
I was referring only to FBS schools.
More random thoughts...
-This game has and will continue to be dissected from every possible angle, so no need for me to elaborate extensively on Georgia/South Carolina. I'm playing a desperate and highly-talented home underdog against a team that has played two quarters of quality football this season. And in a bitter rivalry game. And I'm getting nine free points from where the line was a few weeks ago. If I lose, so be it.
-A part of me is screaming to take Arkansas, but I'm sold just yet. Clearly this is a vastly improved team that very well may pound a weak Texas Tech defense into submission. If the Hogs control the clock, they almost certainly leave Lubbock with a win. Need more than 3 to play it, though...
-Took the Arkansas State under last weekend and may look that way again. This is a legitimately talented secondary with high-level athletes. This could be a struggle for whomever Miami is trotting out at quarterback (I assume Kaaya). That said, Golden may pound Duke Johnson 30+ times and dominate the line of scrimmage. On the other side, it's tough to envision this Ark State offense having much success against the Hurricane defense. Knighten simply isn't good enough to threaten the 'Canes with big plays down the field. Just a lean, may pass on it.
-South Alabama is a spot play. Bulldogs cruised through two relatively easy home games to start the season and travel to Baton Rouge for a massive clash next Saturday. Probably the biggest look-ahead on the board. I've had plenty of success the last few seasons backing Sun Belt teams against SEC heavyweights, though it is certainly possible the MSU talent simply overwhelms a smaller and slower South Alabama team.
-Illinois/Washington is an interesting game, but no chance I touch any aspect of this one. Both have major issues on defense.
-I like this Minnesota team. Really do. But getting out of Fort Worth with a win here seems like a tough task. I had hoped for a hotter, more humid game to wear down the big boys from the Upper Midwest, but it looks like game-time temperatures will be moderate. That said, TCU has SEC-type speed across the board and may be simply too fast for the Gophers. Leidner is likely playing, but he's hardly the only injury. Quoting Coach Kill here, "Our biggest concern is injuries...we're playing so many young players, but better to play them now to get [them] ready for the Big Ten...[w]e are playing seven freshmen on defense, and when you're playing freshmen it's a learning experience." Gophers also had major cramping issues last week against MTSU in Minneapolis. TCU offense will go fast, fast, and faster. Hmmmm...
-Army catches Stanford in a very difficult spot off the USC loss. Stanford had every opportunity to win that game and squandered a major opportunity to set itself up for another PAC-12 championship. From a preparation standpoint, they're now preparing for a unique offense, albeit one they saw last year in West Point. Many of the players from that defense are now gone, but Shaw's teams have bounced back well after losses. The Cardinal hasn't lost back-to-back games since '09. Had an Army lean here, but not enough to play it.
-Equally interesting spot in South Bend this weekend, albeit for vastly different reason. That thrashing of Michigan was about as emotional as it gets for Notre Dame, with the all of the buildup to the last ever meeting and Golson's return to the national stage (and relevance). I'd be fading Notre Dame here just about every time...except against Purdue. This was a great rivalry until the last few years, and Purdue gave 'em a helluva game last year on a Saturday night in West Lafayette. That was probably the best game Purdue played all season, and I'm not sure we get nearly that type of effort in South Bend. Very likely passing, but gun to head I'll say Purdue covers in an ugly one (31-10?).
-Played Texas State in a tease the moment it came out. Dream spot here with Navy coming off of a physical win in Philly against a rugged Temple squad and now traveling a couple thousand miles to southern Texas. Bobcats get two weeks to prepare for the triple option and should get Reynolds at way less than 100%. Might take a money line stab here.
-The more I ruminate on Tennessee/Oklahoma, the more this looks like a shi*kicking. Probably will end up on Boomer Sooner at -21 or less...
-If Texas has any pride (or fight?) whatsoever, it should show on Saturday night. The 'Horns talked all offseason about the improvements on defense and made repeated reference to the asskicking they took early last year in Provo. Then BYU marched into DKR stadium and hung a 41-spot a season later. Granted, BYU had short fields to work with, but that was not the effort many expected. UCLA remains vulnerable and should be susceptible in a hostile, nighttime road atmosphere. Mora says the team got a wake-up in the first two weeks, but that is likely just typical coach bluster. The team won't actually "wake up" until it loses a game. Not playing this, but I expect Texas to bring it...
-No clue what to expect out of Penn State. Lots of chatter about this being arguably the best team in the B1G. I'm somewhat of a PSU supporter, but that's a major stretch. This team remains thin from the scholarship reductions, and the offense is still a major work in progress. They'll get a big test this weekend in front of a ridiculously raucous crowd full of hammered-out-of-their minds Slutgers bros and hoes. My most anticipated game on the board.
-Yes, Boston College might get blown out. Yes, the talent disparity here is rather stark. But hey, I'm a sucker for these types of spots, and I just can't help myself. The facts are what they are: USC travelling 3000+ miles for a late kickoff against a blah east coast team after spilling its guts out against (arguably) its bitter rival. They'll also play without defensive captain (Pullard) for the first half. Plenty of injuries piling up as well for a team without any real depth. Addazio has pulled some rabbits out of his hat before, though this is (admittedly) a tough, tough task. I'll take the near 3 TD's and trust the spot.
-Could UNLV have possibly looked any worse the first two weeks? Probably not, but they catch Northern Illinois coming way west for a late night kickoff sandwiched in between a grueling win at nearby B1G squad Northwestern and a date next weekend with Arkansas. Amazing spot for NIU to lay an egg, but UNLV will need to bring something to hang for four quarters. But hey, strange things happen in Vegas...
Typos galore.