5Dimes currently has this game as a (pk). IMO, this game will attract big play from sharps, and there will be a substantial line move when it hits the big board near gameday.
Couple of Points:
1) NDSU has 6 Back on D, 4 back on O. The big loss is on offense, where All-American QB Jensen graduated (4yr Starter). Good leadership back on D, 7 of top 9 tacklers return...ranked #1 in total D last year.
2) New HC for NDSU (and most of the staff is new as well), last year's DC Klieman.
3) ISU is looking to bounce back from last season, where everything went wrong (ie the Texas referee debacle). 10 back on O, 5 on D.
4) ISU's defensive #'s from last year are dreadful, but much of that is due to the conference in which they play...offense is aplenty in the Big 12.
Over the years, I have backed NDSU heavily in these types of matchups, and in the FCS playoffs. For the passed 3 seasons there has not been a better football team to back with your money when the games count. But, things do change.
Admittedly, when I began writing this game up, I was pretty sure that the magic had left the building for NDSU; graduating some key guys and HC Bohl leaving for greener pastures gave me the feel that ISU is the play here.
Key Matchups:
1) NDSU rebuilt O-line, vs ISU run D. Run D's usually preform better at home. I look for ISU to force NDSU to pass. New NDSU QB is a junior, but has not seen any meaningful playing time. The pressure will be on him to move the sticks, as ISU should be loaded up vs the run all night.
2) New OC for ISU is Mark Mangino. A highly underrated coach. Look for his spread offense to take the ball off of the line of scrimmage early on, and press the ball down the field.
Both matchups favor ISU; but it is tough to lay it down against the 3 time defending FCS national champs.
Look for a tight, low scoring game, but the play here will depend on the line move. I expect late money to flow on NDSU, but it may be one year too late.....the dynasty is winding down in Fargo.
ISU HC Roads is not a genius, but coupled with Mangino the Cyclones should be tougher than last season. This is a spot where they should have their guys ready to go....
ISU @+money or pk (-110)