Jacksonville St at Mich St is one I'll be watching too. There's a lot of focus on the Oregon game. Last year Mich St did not cover first two non-conf games. If the spread is big enough it'll be J St.
Another OVC team, Eastern Illinois vs Minn. Eastern Ill lost their QB. But they are 2nd favorite to win their conf. behind J St.
Jacksonville St at Mich St is one I'll be watching too. There's a lot of focus on the Oregon game. Last year Mich St did not cover first two non-conf games. If the spread is big enough it'll be J St.
Another OVC team, Eastern Illinois vs Minn. Eastern Ill lost their QB. But they are 2nd favorite to win their conf. behind J St.
Guys,
Thanks for the responses, just catching up on these tonight. I probably should have listed my bets thus far and leans as there's a few more games we definitely agree on... Like some on this board I took Eastern Illinois +35 vs. Minnesota back in April. Also waiting on Cal Poly vs. NMSU line to be posted. I didn't list it here with the thinking that it's not really an upset. I've been using BA's post from a few weeks back to gauge what these lines could be when released. He's projected Cal POLY -2. I'll take that, I'm confident Cal POLY wins. Cal POLY's option offense will have success vs. last year's DI worst rushing defense. People make statements that it can't get any worse, but I think the run D stays about the same, just with a more favorable schedule over the course of a full season in the Sun Belt than as an Independent. Even with slight improvements, they're still a bad rush D vs. good running teams. From this article, it seems HC Doug Martin is content with building this program from the ground up with high school recruits, rather than JC help along the front 7.
I also like the Jacksonville State (+33ish) play vs. MSU. I'm on the Spartans plus +14 vs. Oregon already, but I agree week 1 they're not going to try and bury Jacksonville State. And this is a talented FCS team that made it farther in the playoffs than I expected (3 TD win vs. McNeese State and then a narrow defeat to Eastern Washington). They return 17 starters and have a few SEC transfers coming in as well.
I did study the Chattanooga at CMU matchup and came away on the fence, so will likely pass if the line is +6. If it's +10 or better I'd consider Chattanooga. Only 5 starters back from a strong D. Key returnees are up front, 3 new starters in the secondary. Offense has a solid run game with 8 starters back including a dual threat all-conf QB.
Haven't reviewed Montana State yet. Only looked at Arkansas State and feel they'll take a couple steps back in the Sun Belt.
Only game I saw listed that I slightly disagree with is NC Central. Line will be +35 or so. This is bottom half MEAC team and the MEAC is not a very good FCS conference. Also, a young (33 yrs old) first time HC (coached offense prior) in his first game. I think ECU's high powered offense puts up a lot of points on this quality of opponent.
Have some ATS results / trends from last season that I need to dig up for FCS vs. FBS games. Will find those and post.
TD
Guys,
Thanks for the responses, just catching up on these tonight. I probably should have listed my bets thus far and leans as there's a few more games we definitely agree on... Like some on this board I took Eastern Illinois +35 vs. Minnesota back in April. Also waiting on Cal Poly vs. NMSU line to be posted. I didn't list it here with the thinking that it's not really an upset. I've been using BA's post from a few weeks back to gauge what these lines could be when released. He's projected Cal POLY -2. I'll take that, I'm confident Cal POLY wins. Cal POLY's option offense will have success vs. last year's DI worst rushing defense. People make statements that it can't get any worse, but I think the run D stays about the same, just with a more favorable schedule over the course of a full season in the Sun Belt than as an Independent. Even with slight improvements, they're still a bad rush D vs. good running teams. From this article, it seems HC Doug Martin is content with building this program from the ground up with high school recruits, rather than JC help along the front 7.
I also like the Jacksonville State (+33ish) play vs. MSU. I'm on the Spartans plus +14 vs. Oregon already, but I agree week 1 they're not going to try and bury Jacksonville State. And this is a talented FCS team that made it farther in the playoffs than I expected (3 TD win vs. McNeese State and then a narrow defeat to Eastern Washington). They return 17 starters and have a few SEC transfers coming in as well.
I did study the Chattanooga at CMU matchup and came away on the fence, so will likely pass if the line is +6. If it's +10 or better I'd consider Chattanooga. Only 5 starters back from a strong D. Key returnees are up front, 3 new starters in the secondary. Offense has a solid run game with 8 starters back including a dual threat all-conf QB.
Haven't reviewed Montana State yet. Only looked at Arkansas State and feel they'll take a couple steps back in the Sun Belt.
Only game I saw listed that I slightly disagree with is NC Central. Line will be +35 or so. This is bottom half MEAC team and the MEAC is not a very good FCS conference. Also, a young (33 yrs old) first time HC (coached offense prior) in his first game. I think ECU's high powered offense puts up a lot of points on this quality of opponent.
Have some ATS results / trends from last season that I need to dig up for FCS vs. FBS games. Will find those and post.
TD
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