Messages

Forum Index : College Football : Messages Page 1 of 12  1 2 3 4 5   »
Author: [College Football] Topic: NCAA Football week 1
jdnmoney send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
jdnmoney
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Sep 2009
Posts: 9120
Location: United States
#1
Posted: 8/4/2013 11:00:19 PM
2013 YTD: 0-0-0 +/- 0.00 units

Week 1 card
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Florida state -6.5.   0.5u
Ohio +16
Ohio +26 (5D mistake)
NIU +6.5
Utah state +4.5
RICE VS A&M over 67. MONSTER PLAY 4u
Temple +28.5
Temple +27.5
UL Monroe +23
Ball st -7.5.   0.5u
Arkansas pine bluff +45.5 
UNC vs Carolina under 59




2013 RSW wagers:
BYU under 8.5.  -140
Cal under 4.5.    -140
Kent over 5.5.   +135
Army under 4.5.  -120
Southern miss under 5.5 -110
Western mich under 5.5. +110


2012 RSW wager RESULTS:

UTEP under 4.5
Idaho under 4.5
UNLV under 4.5
Ohio under 9.5
Army under 5.5
Duke over 3.5


Lets look at last years results for the 2012-2013 college football season:

quote
jdnmoney send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
jdnmoney
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Sep 2009
Posts: 9120
Location: United States
#2
Posted: 8/4/2013 11:01:09 PM
YTD SEASON RECORD:        115-81-2    (58.67%)      
YTD SIDES RECORD:            63-45-2      (58.33%)
      
YTD O/U RECORD:                 52-36         (59.09%)      

YTD FUTURES RECORD:          6-0            (100%)       


MONSTER PLAYS YTD:   10-2        (83.00%) 

____________________________________________
YTD units:                                                                                      +61.95     



previous thread:
http://www.covers.com/postingforum/post0/showmessage.aspx?spt=33&sub=101493143

last years futures thread:
http://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=33&sub=101375357

POST #10
quote
jdnmoney send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
jdnmoney
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Sep 2009
Posts: 9120
Location: United States
#3
Posted: 8/4/2013 11:03:38 PM
Previous 2013 thread:



http://www.covers.com/postingforum/POST01/showmessage.aspx?
action=quote&ur=jdnmoney&id=117959042&spt=33&sub=101578761&page=7#reply



I WANTED TO DE CLUTTER THE THREAD, 
WHICH IS WHY IM STARTING A NEW ONE.
quote
jdnmoney send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
jdnmoney
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Sep 2009
Posts: 9120
Location: United States
#4
Posted: 8/4/2013 11:06:02 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by jdnmoney:



2012 RSW wager RESULTS:

UTEP under 4.5. WINNER
Idaho under 4.5. WINNER
UNLV under 4.5. WINNER
Ohio under 9.5. WINNER
Army under 5.5. WINNER
Duke over 3.5. WINNER




quote
jdnmoney send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
jdnmoney
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Sep 2009
Posts: 9120
Location: United States
#5
Posted: 8/4/2013 11:13:32 PM
** all plays are 1unit unless otherwise noted...

My betting pattern consists of mostly 1 or 1.5 unit plays. A big play will be 2. A monster play will be 3+ units...70% of my plays will be 1 or 1.5 units...

So when you see my +61.95 units won last year, you know the winnings aren't consistent.

No 50unit bombs here 

quote
shakey12381 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
shakey12381
Participation Meter
All-Star
Joined: Feb 2007
Posts: 14377
Location:
#6
Posted: 8/4/2013 11:36:02 PM
nice card my friend will be on a few of those when I get lines from local do like your am rice over ulm ohio temple and unc sc under plays
quote
LonghornHoosier
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Bellagio |
LonghornHoosier
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Sep 2007
Posts: 3431
Location: Texas
#7
Posted: 8/5/2013 12:49:10 AM

GL JDN

Even without Manziel, I still think you can win your monster bet.    A&M will score with or without Manziel...and Rice will score at least 20 on A&M's D...

quote
LonghornHoosier
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Bellagio |
LonghornHoosier
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Sep 2007
Posts: 3431
Location: Texas
#8
Posted: 8/5/2013 12:49:28 AM
quote
jimmydafreak send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: BookMaker |
jimmydafreak
Participation Meter
All-Star
Joined: Oct 2003
Posts: 12064
Location: United States
#9
Posted: 8/5/2013 1:59:03 AM


Outstanding work jdn.  I'm with you on some of those.  I really like FSU & ULM.  I also like that UNC/USCe UNDER.  Taking a wait and see approach on anything involving TAMU right now (not that I really an option).  I will be very disappointed if Manziel is ruled ineligible.

I'm actually starting to warm up to Iowa, particularly at -3.  I think Iowa will be very well prepared for that Chandler Harnish read option.


quote
MEGALOCKS send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: bet365 |
MEGALOCKS
Participation Meter
All-Star
Joined: Dec 2003
Posts: 14602
Location: Ontario
#10
Posted: 8/5/2013 7:58:19 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by jdnmoney:

** all plays are 1unit unless otherwise noted...

My betting pattern consists of mostly 1 or 1.5 unit plays. A big play will be 2. A monster play will be 3+ units...70% of my plays will be 1 or 1.5 units...

So when you see my +61.95 units won last year, you know the winnings aren't consistent.

No 50unit bombs here 



ya because its plausible someone bets $200 on one game and $10000 on another. 
quote
gwjtf send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
gwjtf
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Sep 2008
Posts: 475
Location: California
#11
Posted: 8/5/2013 11:13:45 AM

Fantastic card JDN.  You will do well week 1.

GW

quote
jdnmoney send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
jdnmoney
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Sep 2009
Posts: 9120
Location: United States
#12
Posted: 8/5/2013 11:25:16 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by jdnmoney:

** all plays are 1unit unless otherwise noted...

My betting pattern consists of mostly 1 or 1.5 unit plays. A big play will be 2. A monster play will be 3+ units...70% of my plays will be 1 or 1.5 units...

So when you see my +61.95 units won last year, you know the winnings ARE consistent.

No 50unit bombs here 


Cannot stand when people post outrageous units and have no idea what the unit system even means...
quote
jdnmoney send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
jdnmoney
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Sep 2009
Posts: 9120
Location: United States
#13
Posted: 8/5/2013 11:29:23 AM
Longhorn  cheers guy, BOL this year, and I'm still forming a hypothesis on Texas wk 1.

Jimmy. Much respect man and value you're opinion greatly.   RMFTR 

Gw:  good luck this year my man. Lets get that sweet  this year. You and I have been 'in the trenches' together on this forum for many years now. Here is to another successful year. 
quote
TBallgame send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: BetPhoenix |
TBallgame
Participation Meter
Rookie
Joined: Aug 2009
Posts: 857
Location: Minnesota
#14
Posted: 8/5/2013 11:32:29 AM
[Quote: Originally Posted by jimmydafreak]

Outstanding work jdn.  I'm with you on some of those.  I really like FSU & ULM.  I also like that UNC/USCe UNDER.  Taking a wait and see approach on anything involving TAMU right now (not that I really an option).  I will be very disappointed if Manziel is ruled ineligible.

I'm actually starting to warm up to Iowa, particularly at -3.  I think Iowa will be very well prepared for that Chandler Harnish read option.


[/WTF are U talking about??  NIU QB is Jordan Lynch.  Love NIU + here, Hawks have terrible DB's!!
quote
TBallgame send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: BetPhoenix |
TBallgame
Participation Meter
Rookie
Joined: Aug 2009
Posts: 857
Location: Minnesota
#15
Posted: 8/5/2013 11:35:10 AM
Freak, WTF are U talking about???  Jordan Lynch is NIU QB, Heisman candidate.  Love Huskies + here, Hawks DB's are AWFUL!!!!
quote
TBallgame send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: BetPhoenix |
TBallgame
Participation Meter
Rookie
Joined: Aug 2009
Posts: 857
Location: Minnesota
#16
Posted: 8/5/2013 11:36:22 AM
Sorry dbl post.  But U get the point.  LOL
quote
jimmydafreak send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: BookMaker |
jimmydafreak
Participation Meter
All-Star
Joined: Oct 2003
Posts: 12064
Location: United States
#17
Posted: 8/5/2013 11:43:25 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by TBallgame:

Freak, WTF are U talking about???  Jordan Lynch is NIU QB, Heisman candidate.  Love Huskies + here, Hawks DB's are AWFUL!!!!

  Jimmydafreak

Yeah, sorry.  Harnish was NIU's QB in 2010 & 2011.  I meant Lynch of course.

I'll probably stay away from the game, but I definitely lean Iowa.

 

quote
jdnmoney send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
jdnmoney
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Sep 2009
Posts: 9120
Location: United States
#18
Posted: 8/5/2013 6:56:52 PM
Anyone who is interested can find my breakdown of ULM vs Oklahoma here: post #91 and #92

http://www.covers.com/postingforum/POST01/showmessage.aspx?
action=quote&ur=jdnmoney&id=117959042&spt=33&sub=101578761&page=7#reply


breaking down toledo vs florida right now.

toledo has had three very impressive showings in a row vs BCS foes; as far as the score is concerned. but lets look deeper.

2012: (+10) @ Arizona, Loss 17-24 in OT - COVERED

toledo was outgained by an amazing 624-358 clip, yet the game went to OT. why? to start, arizona was plagued by 4 fumbes (lost 2) and also threw an INT. toledo won the TO battle 3-1 that night.

twice in the 1st Q AZ had 1st and goal, and scored only 3 pts. after a fumble in the 3rd Q, arizona was given the ball on toledo's 26 and only managed a FG attempt, which was missed.

Toledo managed to hold AZ to 5/15 on 3rd down. both teams were penalized 7 times that night.

toledo gave up many long pass plays and long runs to KaDeem Carey of AZ.

toledo was using the two QA system of T. Owens and A. Dantin. (Which i thought was a mistake and severely handcuffed their offense all season) and this year they (we) wont have that problem as bettors.

2011: (+2) @Syracuse, Loss 33-30 in OT - COVERED depending on what line you snagged, it was anywhere from +2 to +4, but the closing line was +2, so we will say DID NOT COVER

Toledo lost to syracuse in OT despite outgaining the 'cuse 438-366. Toledo passed 42 time vs the cuse and the OL held up really well, as their QB's were only sacked one time.

Toledo was actually up 10-0 after the 1st, and the game was tied after halftime, after 3 and at the end of regulation.

toledo gave up 153 yds rushing on 41 attempts (very good 3.73 ypc avg. )

this was a coin flip game vs a syracuse team that went on to go 5-7 in 2011, but did HAMMER #11 Wva that year and won by 26 as 14pt dogs.

2011: (+17) @ Ohio St, Loss 22-27 in Regulation - COVERED EASILY

Toledo really impressed many people during this game, myself included. Toledo was competing in this game from the start, and many would suggest they were the better football team that day.

Toledo was up 15-7 after 1 Quarter after benefiting from a blocked punt and a short field, and a LONG TD pass to Eric Page (toledo's best player that year by far)  , and the HT score was 15-21 after a 36yd TD run by Carlos Hyde and a 67yd TD on a punt return. each team traded TD's in the 3rd Q, and toledo actually continued to lead until slightly under 4mins left in the 3rd Q, when ohio state scored and missed a 2pt attempt.

there was no scoring in the 4th Q, but it was not for a lack of effort. toledo was inside the Ohio State RZ  in the Quarter, but poor playcalling and timely stops by Buckeye, allowed OSU to win.

Toledo held a very good Ohio State rushing team to 3.3 YPG that day and Joe Bauserman played poorly as well.



Florida meanwhile has played so poorly in their OOC schedule recently. I am not going to analyze them vs FSU, but during the rest of the OOC slate:

2012: -34 vs Jacksonville State: Florida won 23-0
2012: -27 vs ULL: Florida won 27-20
2012: -29 vs BG: Florida won 27-14
2011: -31 vs Furman: Florida won 54-32

many of these performances were very uninspiring. I mean would you believe me that after 1Q of football, furman would be leading UF 22-7? the score was 25-27 with 5 minutes left in the 3rd Q. it was 32-40 in the 4th before furman threw two pick 6's to seal it. furman had 446 total yards and avg'd 5.2 yards per carry. unreal.

last year we saw it three times. UF struggled mightily vs Bowling Green, as BG was up 7-0 after the 1st Q. the score was tied at 14-14 after three quarters. and UF scored the last 13 points in the 4th to win by 13. BG wasnt able to sustain any drives, as they were just 4/17 on 3rd down and avg'd 3.7 YPR.

florida was plagued by penalties, 14 of them, which evened things out. outside of one long 50 yd pass play, UF only had 95 other pass yards. unbelievable.

Last year's game vs ULL was very telling. ULL was playing very hard the entire time, and had a 20-13 lead with 120 seconds to play in the football game. they responded very well to being down early, and revealed that UF didnt have a killer instinct to bury weaker teams, even as UF was up 13-3. ULL scored 17 strait points at the most critical point of the game for most teams playing lesser competition (middle of the 3rd Q).

plain and simple, ULL game this game away. Florida scored a TD with 90 seconds to go to tie the game, and ULL attempted to run the clock out. after UF called time outs, ULL punted with 2 seconds left, the punt was blocked, and returned for a TD as time expired.


this is how these teams have done recently vs similar competition. situational betting (which i am not a fan of) calls for a play on toledo +22.5 which i might do, but i need to find out more about the willies and the joes that will be playing in this game.

ill research these teams more in detail and regurgitate my findings here soon.


Lean Toledo +22.5



quote
jimmydafreak send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: BookMaker |
jimmydafreak
Participation Meter
All-Star
Joined: Oct 2003
Posts: 12064
Location: United States
#19
Posted: 8/5/2013 7:18:09 PM
Toledo vs. Syracuse blown PAT call

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=asz-sof4UoU


quote
buddygurt send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
buddygurt
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Feb 2004
Posts: 1753
Location:
#20
Posted: 8/5/2013 7:20:36 PM
Starting to like Toledo myself, also in that at Syracuse was the blown missed PAT call that put Cuse up 3 instead of 2 late in that game before Toledo drove for the "tying" FG forcing OT.
Posted using a mobile device.
quote
MEGALOCKS send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: bet365 |
MEGALOCKS
Participation Meter
All-Star
Joined: Dec 2003
Posts: 14602
Location: Ontario
#21
Posted: 8/5/2013 7:25:11 PM
great w/up on the toledo game - leaning that way myself
quote
jdnmoney send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
jdnmoney
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Sep 2009
Posts: 9120
Location: United States
#22
Posted: 8/5/2013 7:28:16 PM
Yes jimmy you are accurate...

It was BIG news in that year...

Blown call and toledo gets screwed.
quote
speak2truth send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
speak2truth
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Feb 2011
Posts: 2008
Location:
#23
Posted: 8/5/2013 8:21:38 PM
is 5D gonna allow that mistake?
quote
nc1capper send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
nc1capper
Participation Meter
MVP
Joined: Aug 2007
Posts: 15862
Location: North Carolina
#24
Posted: 8/6/2013 7:18:28 AM
Like the total play for heels - will struggle mightily to score
quote
jefff send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
jefff
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: May 1999
Posts: 2103
Location: Texas
#25
Posted: 8/6/2013 7:44:09 AM
gl this year JDN!
quote
Forum Index : College Football : Messages Page 1 of 12  1 2 3 4 5   »
You have entered the forum as a GUEST. 
You must login/register to post or reply.