Anyone who is interested can find my breakdown of ULM vs Oklahoma here:
Posted: 8/5/2013 6:56:52 PM
breaking down toledo vs florida right now.
toledo has had three very impressive showings in a row vs BCS foes; as far as the score is concerned. but lets look deeper.
2012: (+10) @ Arizona, Loss 17-24 in OT - COVERED
toledo was outgained by an amazing 624-358 clip, yet the game went to OT. why? to start, arizona was plagued by 4 fumbes (lost 2) and also threw an INT. toledo won the TO battle 3-1 that night.
twice in the 1st Q AZ had 1st and goal, and scored only 3 pts. after a fumble in the 3rd Q, arizona was given the ball on toledo's 26 and only managed a FG attempt, which was missed.
Toledo managed to hold AZ to 5/15 on 3rd down. both teams were penalized 7 times that night.
toledo gave up many long pass plays and long runs to KaDeem Carey of AZ.
toledo was using the two QA system of T. Owens and A. Dantin. (Which i thought was a mistake and severely handcuffed their offense all season) and this year they (we) wont have that problem as bettors.
2011: (+2) @Syracuse, Loss 33-30 in OT - COVERED depending on what line you snagged, it was anywhere from +2 to +4, but the closing line was +2, so we will say DID NOT COVER
Toledo lost to syracuse in OT despite outgaining the 'cuse 438-366. Toledo passed 42 time vs the cuse and the OL held up really well, as their QB's were only sacked one time.
Toledo was actually up 10-0 after the 1st, and the game was tied after halftime, after 3 and at the end of regulation.
toledo gave up 153 yds rushing on 41 attempts (very good 3.73 ypc avg. )
this was a coin flip game vs a syracuse team that went on to go 5-7 in 2011, but did HAMMER #11 Wva that year and won by 26 as 14pt dogs.
2011: (+17) @ Ohio St, Loss 22-27 in Regulation - COVERED EASILY
really impressed many people during this game, myself included. Toledo was competing in this game from the start, and many would suggest they were the better football team that day.
Toledo was up 15-7 after 1 Quarter after benefiting from a blocked punt and a short field, and a LONG TD pass to Eric Page (toledo's best player that year by far) , and the HT score was 15-21 after a 36yd TD run by Carlos Hyde and a 67yd TD on a punt return. each team traded TD's in the 3rd Q, and toledo actually continued to lead until slightly under 4mins left in the 3rd Q, when ohio state scored and missed a 2pt attempt.
there was no scoring in the 4th Q, but it was not for a lack of effort. toledo was inside the Ohio State RZ in the Quarter, but poor playcalling and timely stops by Buckeye, allowed OSU to win.
Toledo held a very good Ohio State rushing team to 3.3 YPG that day and Joe Bauserman played poorly as well.
Florida meanwhile has played so poorly in their OOC schedule recently. I am not going to analyze them vs FSU, but during the rest of the OOC slate:2012: -34 vs Jacksonville State: Florida won 23-02012: -27 vs ULL: Florida won 27-202012: -29 vs BG: Florida won 27-142011: -31 vs Furman: Florida won 54-32
many of these performances were very uninspiring. I mean would you believe me that after 1Q of football, furman would be leading UF 22-7? the score was 25-27 with 5 minutes left in the 3rd Q. it was 32-40 in the 4th before furman threw two pick 6's to seal it. furman had 446 total yards and avg'd 5.2 yards per carry. unreal.
last year we saw it three times. UF struggled mightily vs Bowling Green, as BG was up 7-0 after the 1st Q. the score was tied at 14-14 after three quarters. and UF scored the last 13 points in the 4th to win by 13. BG wasnt able to sustain any drives, as they were just 4/17 on 3rd down and avg'd 3.7 YPR.
florida was plagued by penalties, 14 of them, which evened things out. outside of one long 50 yd pass play, UF only had 95 other pass yards. unbelievable.
Last year's game vs ULL was very telling. ULL was playing very hard the entire time, and had a 20-13 lead with 120 seconds to play in the football game. they responded very well to being down early, and revealed that UF didnt have a killer instinct to bury weaker teams, even as UF was up 13-3. ULL scored 17 strait points at the most critical point of the game for most teams playing lesser competition (middle of the 3rd Q).
plain and simple, ULL game this game away. Florida scored a TD with 90 seconds to go to tie the game, and ULL attempted to run the clock out. after UF called time outs, ULL punted with 2 seconds left, the punt was blocked, and returned for a TD as time expired.
this is how these teams have done recently vs similar competition. situational betting (which i am not a fan of) calls for a play on toledo +22.5 which i might do, but i need to find out more about the willies and the joes that will be playing in this game.
ill research these teams more in detail and regurgitate my findings here soon. Lean Toledo +22.5