Early Season Wins Bets to Look For

Forum: College Football
Author: [College Football] Topic: Early Season Wins Bets to Look For
BarrelledIn PM BarrelledIn
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Posted: 4/10/2013 7:14:10 PM
Buy low sell high is the name

TAM - 10. Biggest bet on Under.
Johnny falls hard and SEC catches up to him. He loses 2 important OL and pretty much all his targets. They will be extremely overvalued and will fall in a few games they should win, like @Ark, MSU, @Ole, @Mizzou. Not to mention facing Bama and @LSU. EASY under.

UCLA Under 7.5 probably juiced
Franklin out and only 6 back on D. QB sucks. Wad shot.
Easily 5 losses out of @Neb, @Stan, @Ore, @Zona, @USC, @Utah, Wash, ASU. Murderers row.

Bama - Under 10.5 should be like +180 and it's value.
They become human and have a hangover like 2010. 2+ losses coming from tough games vs. VT (neutral), @TAM, LSU, and 1 big upset will come from somewhere.

Iowa Over 5
Ferentz comes out with a surprise when absolutely no one is looking

Wash State Over 4
Leach gets the turn around started





DoubleUp4Life PM DoubleUp4Life
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Posted: 4/12/2013 1:06:30 PM

Like Iowa over ...not sure about the other ones ...

do NOT think u will get +180 or more on bama under 10.5... could see that being closer to +120

Guessing UCLA total will be 6.5 or 7 at the highest

 

Looking forward to

Georgia Over hoping for 9.5/9...

Ole Miss Over 7/7.5 ???

Cuse Under 4.5  new move to ACC tough

Arizona st Over 7 ???

LSU under 10???

 

BarrelledIn PM BarrelledIn
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Posted: 4/12/2013 7:27:41 PM
I don't know how Johnny doesn't have a huge letdown + the O loses so much. Under 10 will probably be + and it will be huge value. I'd be totally shocked to see them get 11+ wins.

Maybe 7 for UCLA doubt 6.5.

Ole Miss I don't know. They return practically everyone but I don't like how they start @Vandy, @Texas, @Bama, @AU 4 of the first 5 games. I think they beat TAM at home. Good +money on 7.5 over could be good.
getoffmyface PM getoffmyface
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Posted: 4/15/2013 8:46:34 PM

Florida St over 9.5 -160,  over 10 -110,  over 10.5 +140.  Likely 10+ pt faves in 10 of 12 games, but the public perception is that they were decimated by the draft. 

BarrelledIn PM BarrelledIn
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Posted: 4/15/2013 11:12:19 PM
I'd be on that FSU under 9.5 +140. Good for losses @Clemson and @UF and at least 1 upset somewhere starting with opening @Pitt.

Texas Over 9 BIG if I can get a good price on 9.
It's about damn time theory. Stacked with 19 returners. Few real sure wins, but few ones. Favored in 11 or 12 games and will beat OK.
BarrelledIn PM BarrelledIn
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Posted: 4/15/2013 11:16:24 PM
^few tough ones
jimmydafreak PM jimmydafreak
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Posted: 4/16/2013 2:22:26 AM
I rarely make these type of bets because the odds are terrible, so I haven't really taken in debt look at any of these.  That said, a few that stick out to me is the Wazzu OVER 4 and the TAMU UNDER 10.  The Iowa OVER 5 seems fairly solid too.

Bama UNDER anything is throwing money away.  Two of the games you mention as danger games will be blowout victories in favor of Alabama.  Neither the Virginia Tech or TAMU games will be competitive.  LSU always seems to find a way to play Alabama tough, so that certainly is a danger game, and Ole Miss could be a danger game.  I doubt seriously they lose either however.

I've watched their first two scrimmages, and they are ridiculous.  The amount of talent they have on the offensive side of the ball should be illegal.  If AJ stays healthy, no one is stopping this team.

Absolutxedge22 PM Absolutxedge22
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Posted: 4/17/2013 8:27:47 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BarrelledIn:

I'd be on that FSU under 9.5 +140. Good for losses @Clemson and @UF and at least 1 upset somewhere starting with opening @Pitt.

Texas Over 9 BIG if I can get a good price on 9.
It's about damn time theory. Stacked with 19 returners. Few real sure wins, but few ones. Favored in 11 or 12 games and will beat OK.


OK? They're called OU.
BarrelledIn PM BarrelledIn
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Posted: 4/18/2013 2:01:31 AM
I'm not real big on the Bama under, but if the +money is there I see value. They just have to fall off.

Wash Over 7/7.5
They are stacked with 17 returners, and basically the whole O. They were 99th in Offense ly and still covered the O/U win total. The problem was banged up OL, but healthy  and seasoned now. Price and Sefarian Jenkins will be unreal this year and they'll get it together.
They beat down Boise to open and start 4-0. They will beat Oregon at home. This is the time for Sarkisian to have a break out 9+ win year.
BarrelledIn PM BarrelledIn
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Posted: 4/18/2013 2:01:51 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Absolutxedge22:



OK? They're called OU.



capperator PM capperator
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Posted: 4/18/2013 3:09:37 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BarrelledIn:

Buy low sell high is the name

TAM - 10. Biggest bet on Under.
Johnny falls hard and SEC catches up to him. He loses 2 important OL and pretty much all his targets. They will be extremely overvalued and will fall in a few games they should win, like @Ark, MSU, @Ole, @Mizzou. Not to mention facing Bama and @LSU. EASY under.

UCLA Under 7.5 probably juiced
Franklin out and only 6 back on D. QB sucks. Wad shot.
Easily 5 losses out of @Neb, @Stan, @Ore, @Zona, @USC, @Utah, Wash, ASU. Murderers row.

Bama - Under 10.5 should be like +180 and it's value.
They become human and have a hangover like 2010. 2+ losses coming from tough games vs. VT (neutral), @TAM, LSU, and 1 big upset will come from somewhere.

Iowa Over 5
Ferentz comes out with a surprise when absolutely no one is looking

Wash State Over 4
Leach gets the turn around started






You have drank entirely way too much juice, cumbarrell 
BarrelledIn PM BarrelledIn
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Posted: 6/29/2013 10:46:04 PM
5Dimes totals:
http://www.beyondthebets.com/updated-college-football-win-totals-2013/

TAM 9.5 U +140
UCLA 8.5 U -280
Bama 11.5 U -230
Iowa 5.5 O +100
WSU 4.5 O +100
Wash 7.5 O -135
Texas 9.5 O -170

The only real value from these lines is TAM Under and a parlay with UCLA and Bama under for -105 and a sure win.

Nothing real surprising though. Better to wait for some alternate totals.

BarrelledIn PM BarrelledIn
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Posted: 6/29/2013 10:57:47 PM
^ those are current lines not from article.

I cannot believe Notre Dame was 9.5 U -135. It's now -230.

South Carolina Under 9.5 +155 right now has value.


jdnmoney PM jdnmoney
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Posted: 6/29/2013 11:00:13 PM
BYU under 8.5
Cal under 4.5
Army under 4.5
Southern miss under 5.5
Western michigan under 5.5


Guarantee you make money with these.
jimmydafreak PM jimmydafreak
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Posted: 6/29/2013 11:47:51 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BarrelledIn:

Buy low sell high is the name

TAM - 10. Biggest bet on Under.
Johnny falls hard and SEC catches up to him. He loses 2 important OL and pretty much all his targets. They will be extremely overvalued and will fall in a few games they should win, like @Ark, MSU, @Ole, @Mizzou. Not to mention facing Bama and @LSU. EASY under.

UCLA Under 7.5 probably juiced
Franklin out and only 6 back on D. QB sucks. Wad shot.
Easily 5 losses out of @Neb, @Stan, @Ore, @Zona, @USC, @Utah, Wash, ASU. Murderers row.

Bama - Under 10.5 should be like +180 and it's value.
They become human and have a hangover like 2010. 2+ losses coming from tough games vs. VT (neutral), @TAM, LSU, and 1 big upset will come from somewhere.

Iowa Over 5
Ferentz comes out with a surprise when absolutely no one is looking

Wash State Over 4
Leach gets the turn around started



I really only have an opinion on your SEC plays.

With respect to TAMU, I agree in part, and disagree in part.  The line I saw for TAMU was UNDER 9.5 wins @ +140.  I don't think this is necessarily a bad bet because SEC defensive coordinators have had a year to study Johnny Manziel and his offense, so a downturn this season would not necessarily be a shocker.

That said, I don't think they will fall nearly as precipitously as you anticipate.  They will again be a very potent offensive team.  They will absolutely drill Arkansas and Mizzou.  Mississippi State may be able to keep the game competitive, but they probably aren't going to beat TAMU either.

TAMU's win total may go UNDER, but you will sweat this bet to the bitter end IMO.

This will be the best and most dominant Alabama team of the Saban era.  You need to warm up to the notion that they aren't going lose a game this season.  OVER 11.5 wins at +170 is one of the easiest futures bet on the board.  At no time during the season will this bet be threatened.


jimmydafreak PM jimmydafreak
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Posted: 6/29/2013 11:52:02 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by jimmydafreak:

I rarely make these type of bets because the odds are terrible, so I haven't really taken in debt look at any of these.  That said, a few that stick out to me is the Wazzu OVER 4 and the TAMU UNDER 10.  The Iowa OVER 5 seems fairly solid too.

Bama UNDER anything is throwing money away.  Two of the games you mention as danger games will be blowout victories in favor of Alabama.  Neither the Virginia Tech or TAMU games will be competitive.  LSU always seems to find a way to play Alabama tough, so that certainly is a danger game, and Ole Miss could be a danger game.  I doubt seriously they lose either however.

I've watched their first two scrimmages, and they are ridiculous.  The amount of talent they have on the offensive side of the ball should be illegal.  If AJ stays healthy, no one is stopping this team.



Didn't realize I had already responded to this thread. 


DoubleUp4Life PM DoubleUp4Life
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Posted: 6/29/2013 11:58:16 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by BarrelledIn:

5Dimes totals:
http://www.beyondthebets.com/updated-college-football-win-totals-2013/

TAM 9.5 U +140
UCLA 8.5 U -280
Bama 11.5 U -230
Iowa 5.5 O +100
WSU 4.5 O +100
Wash 7.5 O -135
Texas 9.5 O -170

The only real value from these lines is TAM Under and a parlay with UCLA and Bama under for -105 and a sure win.

Nothing real surprising though. Better to wait for some alternate totals.

ALT. Totals should have some nice Value ///

These early numbers are either very sharp in some cases or LOADED with negative Juice in many other Posted totals ..

LonghornHoosier PM LonghornHoosier
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Posted: 6/30/2013 12:47:50 AM
good insight you guys.   Jimmy and JDN - I am on the same page with you...T minus 61 days and counting...
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