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Author: [College Football] Topic: 2013 Week 1 Point Spread Guesses***Never Too Early$$$
DoubleUp4Life
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#76
Posted: 5/2/2013 4:14:05 PM

Updated Line Guesses for week 1

Thanks for all Input Brothers

Thursday August 29th

USC 23.5   *Hawai'i

Minnesota 18.5 UNLV

Tulsa 4.5 *Bowling Green

Utah 13.5   Utah St

Fresno St 6   Rutgers

UCF 24   Akron

SC 12.5 UNC

Vanderbilt  2.5   Ole Miss

Friday

Michigan St 22.5 WMU

Miami 24 FAU

Texas Tech 7 *SMU

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#77
Posted: 5/2/2013 5:01:27 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by DoubleUp4Life:

Bears are usually pretty good at home ... might not be an easy trip for the Wildcats ... plenty of distractions .... Hippies and tree huggers might get them unfocused


I agreee w/ him.....no way is Cal favored by 7....i say 4 at the most but wouldn't be surprised if it was a PK
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#78
Posted: 5/3/2013 11:14:34 AM
UNC down to +10
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LonghornHoosier
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#79
Posted: 5/3/2013 12:25:18 PM

DUBL et al - - to clarify, are you guys saying that Cal should be favored in this matchup at worst a pk?  That is my interpretation.  If that is wrong and your advocating that NW should be favored, then my explanation below is moot.

I question why you think Cal will be favored in the first place.   I looked at the 2012 End of the Season Power Rankings...

78  California           A  =  66.64

21  Northwestern         A  =  81.72

Phil Steele - Returning Starters

California
PAC-12        9

Northwestern
BIG 10     15

Yes, NW returns 15 starters, same HC, same QB, same systems coming off a bowl win against Miss St.

12:00 PM ET, January 1, 2013

Everbank Field, JACKSONVILLE, FL

1 2 3 4 T
MSST 0 10 3 7 20
#20 NW 10 3 14 7 34

Cal ony returns 9 starters, new NC in Dykes, new systems, new QB, and a 3-9 season...Cal also lots its top WR high in in teh 2013 NFL draft...

So why would Cal be favored or why would this be a PK?

I cap this game as Northwestern favored by 7 to 8 points.  Sure, Dykes will be an improvement over Tedford, with new enery, and yes, I guess Cal has an advantage playing at home.  

Tell me why you guys think that I am wrong here...

We won't know the opening (unless 5 Dimes comes out)  till some time iin July.   But, right now, I would select NW giving  up to 7 points  @ Cal...

Right now I have Texas over NMSW -38 and Ok St -10 over Miss St. as my current 2 selections for week 1 ranked ahead of Miami -24 over FAU and Alabama -21 over Va Tech and this NW -7 over Cal matchup.    But, if the NW v. Cal matchup is significantly below the -7 or pk or even +4

Please tell me if I am off base here on my perspective on the NW v. Cal matchup???

 

 

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#80
Posted: 5/3/2013 1:34:03 PM
Thanks LH

I said at worst they'd be a PK meaning that they are underdogs or straight pick them at worst. Sorry for confusion.

I see NU being a great team with many returners. I think NU at +7 or +4.5 is an absolute gift. I was expecting more like -4.5 
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#81
Posted: 5/3/2013 6:16:56 PM

cane - I agree.  If NW is the dog, I would be all over them...

But why would NW be the dog based on the facts that I have presented above???   I have NW as a 7 point favorite, even at Berkeley.   What am I missing?

Thanks in advance.

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#82
Posted: 5/3/2013 8:06:12 PM
Okla State is my pick of board..They will route MissState by 20>pts..Betanysports has lines for every week.At least they did this time last year.
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#83
Posted: 5/3/2013 9:13:19 PM
is it possible that you guys think NW could be a dog because Cal gave up on Tedford at the end of the season, thus making their power rating significantly skewed downward???  With Dykes new energy and accountability, and with a good east bay recruiting base (ie Richmond, Oakland, etc), that Cal can improve that much in one year against an overall marginally talent, yet a well coached and smart team in NW?    I'd like to hear the logic of those folks who believe Cal will be a pk to 4.5 favorite in this game?
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#84
Posted: 5/5/2013 7:19:08 AM

SATURDAY

Auburn 17.5 Washington St

Arkansas 19.5 ULL

CAL  5.5   Northwestern

X Colorado 7 Colorado St

Florida 21.5 Toledo

Notre Dame 24.5 Temple

Louisville 20 Ohio

X Kentucky 14.5 WKU

Maryland 12.5 FIU

Michigan 27.5 CMU

Nc St 9.5 la Tech

Nebraska 24.5 Wyoming

New Mexico 2.5 UTSA

X Penn St 7.5 Syracuse

Ohio St 32.5 U at Buffalo

x Oklahoma St 10.5  Miss St

Oklahoma 24.5 ULM

A&M 36.5 Rice

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#85
Posted: 5/5/2013 4:02:27 PM
DUFL - why do you have Cal favored against NW?
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#86
Posted: 5/6/2013 7:58:41 AM
Is cal at home?
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#87
Posted: 5/6/2013 8:06:25 AM
ohio +20 is too much.    16.5-17 for me
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#88
Posted: 5/6/2013 10:21:36 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by LonghornHoosier:

DUFL - why do you have Cal favored against NW?

Home Game ... Long trip for the Wildcats ...   do u think NW will be laying points on the road ?
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#89
Posted: 5/6/2013 11:40:43 AM
QUOTE

yes, I do. If you look at my analysis above, it will be up to 7 points. That is why I am trying to reconcile with your line. NW was a top 20 team at the end of last season that has 15 returning starters including the QB. the only way I could see Cal being favored in this game is if last season, the team sandbagged and lost games because they knew Tedford was toast, and that Cal's overall talent base, systems, coaching, are superior to NW. NW did indeed beat Miss St in a New Year's Day Bowl 34 to 20, right? I disagree that in the 1st game of the season, that the time zone differential going from east to west, will be profound for NW (I understand West to East is tougher). I agree with all of your other forecasts, I just don't see how you can pick a team in Cal that was 3-9 W/L and 1-6 ATS at home last year to be favored by up to 7 against a NW team that was 10-3 W/L and 12-1 ATS in 2012. At the very least, NW should and I believe will be favored in this game from my prima facie review of all the parameters.

In essence, I think you are dead wrong on this one...NW will be favored by a minimum of 4 points and possibly more, even at Berkeley…

 

Originally Posted by DoubleUp4Life:


Home Game ... Long trip for the Wildcats ...   do u think NW will be laying points on the road ?
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#90
Posted: 5/6/2013 1:18:02 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by DoubleUp4Life:


Home Game ... Long trip for the Wildcats ...   do u think NW will be laying points on the road ?


WTF is going on here..........

HARDCORE degenerates at work...........
  *that LonghornHoosier rapidly climbing the degenerate ladder.....> 2013 impending DOOM for Mack and the Horns?....or big bounce-back in a (possibly) softer Big12?

NW finished 2012 as the nation's 33rd or so best team....and return QB + key skill folks and 15 starters or so......and were about 13-14 points better than the sorry Thorpe led Cal team at the end of 2012....
who are learning new systems and only have about 9 starters back from the nation's 75th best unit...give or take...

week 1 openers have shocked the hell outta me recently....so tough to tell....but I would think NW opens as a 5 pt fav or so....but Cal HYPE could make it closer....(west coast bettors could drive number down)..... 
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#91
Posted: 5/6/2013 2:20:02 PM
thank you bookie! 
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#92
Posted: 5/6/2013 4:19:37 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by bookieassassin:



WTF is going on here..........

HARDCORE degenerates at work...........
  *that LonghornHoosier rapidly climbing the degenerate ladder.....> 2013 impending DOOM for Mack and the Horns?....or big bounce-back in a (possibly) softer Big12?

NW finished 2012 as the nation's 33rd or so best team....and return QB + key skill folks and 15 starters or so......and were about 13-14 points better than the sorry Thorpe led Cal team at the end of 2012....
who are learning new systems and only have about 9 starters back from the nation's 75th best unit...give or take...

week 1 openers have shocked the hell outta me recently....so tough to tell....but I would think NW opens as a 5 pt fav or so....but Cal HYPE could make it closer....(west coast bettors could drive number down)..... 

Yeah week 1 numbers can be really shocking ... clearly NW has much more coming back and the Bears are going through changes ....  

likely this game is a pass for me unless Cal is catching 3.5+ , and even then it would be a smaller play 
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#93
Posted: 5/8/2013 9:30:20 AM

Updated Line Guesses for week 1 (goal to be within 3.5 points)

 

Thursday August 29th

USC 23.5 *Hawai'i

Minnesota 18.5 UNLV

Tulsa 3.5 *Bowling Green

Utah 13.5 Utah St

Fresno St 6 Rutgers

UCF 24 Akron

SC 11.5 UNC

Vanderbilt 2.5 Ole Miss

Friday

Michigan St 22.5 WMU

Miami 24.5 FAU

Texas Tech 7 *SMU

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#94
Posted: 5/9/2013 8:12:36 AM
I definitely think Northwestern will beat on Cal. Didnt understand how Cal is favored even being at home. NWestern should handle them.

Like:
 Nwestern +5.5
Ole Miss +2.5
Utah St. +13.5
Miami -24.5
Maryland -12.5
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#95
Posted: 5/9/2013 10:15:32 AM
again...no way Cal will be favored in the game with NW.  NW will be favored by 4+ by game time...
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#96
Posted: 5/9/2013 2:09:05 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by LonghornHoosier:

again...no way Cal will be favored in the game with NW.  NW will be favored by 4+ by game time...

 

week 1 lines are always very shocking ... nothing would surprise me

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#97
Posted: 5/9/2013 7:40:52 PM
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#98
Posted: 5/9/2013 7:49:36 PM

Texas 37   New Mexico St

BYU 2    *Virginia

X*Washington  2.5   Boise St. 

Wisconsin 40.5 UMass

Marshall 11.5 Miami Ohio

Cincinnati    2.5   Purdue 

Iowa 2.5 Northern Illinois

So Miss 23.5 Texas St

Troy 13.5 UAB

X Alabama 22.5  Virginia Tech

Clemson  1.5   Georgia    

X LSU 9.5   TCU

Sunday

Colorado   5.5    Colorado St

Monday

Florida St   9.5    *PITT 

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#99
Posted: 5/21/2013 1:30:38 AM

Updated Line Guesses for week 1 (goal to be within 3.5 points)

Thursday August 29th

USC 23.5 *Hawai'i

Minnesota 18.5 UNLV

Tulsa 4.5 *Bowling Green

Utah 11.5 Utah St

Fresno St 9.5  Rutgers

UCF 24.5 Akron

SC 11.5 UNC

Vanderbilt 2.5 Ole Miss

Friday

Michigan St 22.5 WMU

Miami 24.5 FAU

Texas Tech 4.5 *SMU

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#100
Posted: 5/21/2013 11:58:53 AM

double

betonline opened all games for week 1.  if you look at nw v cal, nw has opened -6.

you may want to reference betonline and adjust your estimates.  if i recall bama opened over va tech at -15.5...i am not with betonline, but bama -15.5 seems to good to be true.

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