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Author: [College Football] Topic: Conference Alignments
thorpe send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
thorpe
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#1
Posted: 3/26/2013 11:02:18 AM
I am going to break down the conferences as they stand right now, just to keep track of the movement.

The Pac 12 does not add or lose any team this year.

This could be a wide open year in the P12.  I think the top teams from the last few years are going to be weaker, and the rest of the P12 is going to get stronger.  Almost every school has a new coach. 

Top tier
Oregon - not quite as good as last year
Stanford - a little less talent than last year
UCLA - talented but inconsistent.  Could be a Sophomore Slump year, or they could be taking over for USC.  Swing year for the program
USC - always talented but feeling the effects of reduced scholarships and bad morale and Kiffin's lack of leadership
Arizona - up and coming program 
Arizona St - also up and coming
Washington - this is the year with the big 3 returning. 
Oregon St - I almost put them in the lower tier, but when they have a dependable QB they are a very good team

Middle Tier
Cal - program will be re-energized, but is there a QB for the system?
Wash St - Leach is already on the hot seat
Utah - not adapting well to P12

Bottom Tier
Colorado - new coach could re-energize this program.  They could be a sleeping giant because Boulder recruits itself.
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Posted: 3/26/2013 11:15:55 AM
Also no changes for the MAC.

Nobody ever takes the MAC seriously to start the year so I think there will be value ATS betting the top 8 teams in the MAC.  

The talent and the depth in the MAC is vastly improved over the last 5 years.  It used to be somewhat rare for a MAC player to be drafted, but nowadays they is usually 1 first rounder.

This conference is also like the P12 where there are the top 7 or 8 teams, and couple average teams, and a couple horrible teams.

Northern Ill - Lynch returns
Kent - lose QB
Ohio - Tettleton has 1 more year
Ball in good shape with Wenning
Toledo - Terrnace Owens
Bowling Green

WM 
Buffalo - will have QB controversy unless 1 guy gets hurt
CMU - lose QB
Miami OH - lose QB

Akron - lose their QB
UMASS
EMU

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Posted: 3/26/2013 5:37:59 PM
SEC also does not change.

SEC needs to boot out Kentucky and bring in FLorida St.

IMO the top 7 teams in the country all reside in the SEC.  Bama, LSU, FLorida, Georgia, South Carolina, A&M, Ole Miss.  One or two of the other teams should be OK, but this is a league of have's and have-not's.

Bama and LSU are able to recruit top talent to be 5th string because players want to be on a winning team.  Other schools can recruit top talent but they have to promise a day 1 starting job, and more often than not the touted recruit turns out to be a bust that ruins team chemistry.

SEC is a coaches conference.  The SEC recruits itself because it is the closest thing to NFL football  This means that there is less fluctuation from year to year,and the teams are roughly as good as their fans, facilities, and coaches are.

Bama - I have them +125 to win the BCS again

LSU - even though they are clearly behind Bama, they are still a very good team, and Bama fan would be the first to say it.
Georgia - they are not perfect, but they win a very high percentage of games
Florida - Florida is one of the few teams on par athletically with Bama, but they have not been able to put it all together lately
A&M - I am probably going to call for a Sophomore slump fotr Manziel, but I rank them here because I respect what they did last year and I am a Sumlin fan
South Carolina - Spurrier is still a great coach but he doesn't have the energy Sabean has
Ole Miss - this is a confident, talented team that can still sneak up on the SEC


Vandy - gets better and deeper every year, now starting to recruit better athletes who still buy into the program.  I have them on a tier by themselves because they don't belong with the big boys but I think they are going to be better than the rest of the SEC.

Miss St - were they ever that good?
Missou - I don't think they can recruit good enough for the SEC
Arkansas - they belong in the top tier but John L Smith can severley damage a program in 1 year.
Auburn - Won't be as bad as last year, but they can't compete with the big boys in the SEC any more.
Tennessee - potential top tier program but Kiffin set this program back a lot of years.

Kentucky  - only relevant when they have a top QB
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#4
Posted: 3/27/2013 3:45:26 PM

Love the MAC Angle

last year week 1 so many Bettors lost their shirt taking the Gators ATS vs Bowling Green

The MAC has been up the last couple of years and look to be right there again this season

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Posted: 3/27/2013 3:57:42 PM
Mt West

Mt West gains San Jose St and Utah St from the WAC.  They will now have 12 teams and 2 conferences, the Mountain and the West.

Boise should dominate the Mountain for the next 5 years. Top 4 teams in the West can all win.  I don't think it is decided where the title game will be, but if it is at the best team's home field, then Boise is going to win most years.

Mountain
Boise State - should get a little better this year

Utah State - i think they keep it going after coach departs
Air Force - always good, rarely great.  Pencil them into 3rd for the next 10 years

Wyoming - coach will be fired at the end of the year .  Not much talent.
Colorado State - paying for bad coaching hires
New Mexico - improving, but they started at the bottom of the NCAA

West
Fresno State - DeRuyter took over in a very good position and has re-energized the program
San Diego State -  team gets a good amount of talent

Nevada - I expect that to drop a little from the last 5 years
San Jose State McIntyre did a great job before leaving for Colorado.  Maybe 1 more good year then back in the toilet for this hard luck program

UNLV - bad team, but they are improving.  I wonder how much patience the school will have with Bobby Hauk.  I think he can probably build a winner, but I think it could take 8 years.
Hawaii - they need to find some pipelines to mainland talent.


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Posted: 3/27/2013 4:07:11 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by DoubleUp4Life:

Love the MAC Angle

last year week 1 so many Bettors lost their shirt taking the Gators ATS vs Bowling Green

The MAC has been up the last couple of years and look to be right there again this season


Here is the week 1 MAC slate vs good teams, with my early, early lines***

Buffalo  at Ohio St - 40

Toledo at Florida.  26

UMASS at Wisconsin  50

Ohio at Louisville  22

North Illinois at Iowa  PK

CMU at Mich  33

I like all the MAC teams except UMASS.  


*** $50 max bet and you don't get paid if you win.  
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#7
Posted: 3/27/2013 4:15:00 PM
Sun Belt

In: Georgia State and UT-Arlington from FCS; Texas State from WAC
Stay:  Ark St, ULL, ULM, WK, Troy, So Bama
Out: FAU, FIU, Middle Tennessee and North Texas to CUSA


The Sun Belt loses its presence in Florida and Tennesee this year.

I don't follow the Sun Belt too closely so I am not going to say too much.  The conference is down several notches from last year when they cracked the top 25.

Ark St
ULL
ULM

Troy
WK

S Bama
Texas St

Georgia St
UT Arlington

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Posted: 3/27/2013 4:20:15 PM
WAC

The WAC got put out of its misery.  

With the P12 and MW both going to 12 team conferences, it was just a numbers game that the WAC was doomed.

New Mexico St and Idaho were forced to become independent.  This is going to really harm their already weak recruiting efforts.
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