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Author: [College Football] Topic: ***** Alabama vs. Notre Dame Write-up *****
whsbaseball21 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#51
Posted: 1/6/2013 11:10:37 PM
have a 17 team parlay coming down to the bama ml.
500 to win 17,000 ish. do i even bother hedging? i think waiting until half time and assuming i'll still get a good line is the way to go. bama didn't struggle with bad teams. they wasted them like they were nothing. byu and pitt hung around with notre dame. people like to throw out that notre dame had a month to prepare for this bama squad, but bama had that same month. saban is just as good a coach as any in the country at making his team prepared.

i may let my parlay ride, at least for the first half. thoughts?
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#52
Posted: 1/6/2013 11:16:17 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by SteelCash:

Good write up... will read the rest of it in a bit. By "max bet" and your score prediction, I assume you're very confident in this play.

Thanks for your time.



Supremely confident.



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#53
Posted: 1/6/2013 11:18:13 PM
good writeup and im already on bama with the future bet i put on them at even money before the lsu game...it seems dangerous to lay the 10 tomorrow night, but the number might be high enough to get some suckers on the ND side

i recall you losing your max bet on bama on either the lsu game or the tex am game 
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#54
Posted: 1/6/2013 11:19:19 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by whsbaseball21:

have a 17 team parlay coming down to the bama ml.
500 to win 17,000 ish. do i even bother hedging? i think waiting until half time and assuming i'll still get a good line is the way to go. bama didn't struggle with bad teams. they wasted them like they were nothing. byu and pitt hung around with notre dame. people like to throw out that notre dame had a month to prepare for this bama squad, but bama had that same month. saban is just as good a coach as any in the country at making his team prepared.

i may let my parlay ride, at least for the first half. thoughts?

put a few grand on ND ml
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#55
Posted: 1/6/2013 11:20:35 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by whsbaseball21:

have a 17 team parlay coming down to the bama ml.
500 to win 17,000 ish. do i even bother hedging? i think waiting until half time and assuming i'll still get a good line is the way to go. bama didn't struggle with bad teams. they wasted them like they were nothing. byu and pitt hung around with notre dame. people like to throw out that notre dame had a month to prepare for this bama squad, but bama had that same month. saban is just as good a coach as any in the country at making his team prepared.

i may let my parlay ride, at least for the first half. thoughts?


Absolutely you should hedge, and that in no way should be construed as lacking confidence in my Alabama play.  It's just the smart thing to do.  I would probably bet ND on the ML @ +310 for about $500.  That way if Notre Dame wins you will have a $1,050 profit.  If Alabama wins you will have made a $16.500 profit.  For God's sake don't let you book off the hook whatever you do.


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#56
Posted: 1/6/2013 11:27:04 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Michfan15:

good writeup and im already on bama with the future bet i put on them at even money before the lsu game...it seems dangerous to lay the 10 tomorrow night, but the number might be high enough to get some suckers on the ND side

i recall you losing your max bet on bama on either the lsu game or the tex am game 


LSU game.  The basis for my play was essentially the same.  I didn't believe LSU's offense led by Mettenberger would have much success scoring or even moving the ball.  Obviously Mettenberger played the game of his life which allowed LSU to dominate TOP.

Even though I liked TAMU when they played Alabama, I played the UNDER thinking that was the better bet rather than the side.  Both were winners.


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#57
Posted: 1/6/2013 11:38:35 PM
Good luck Jimmy.

The one difference you pointed out on the Horns team in 09 was that they played in the Big 12 with mostly spread offenses.  ND has played several run first teams (MSU being the big one).  Not sure the comparison is that apples to apples.  But nice write up.

Don't have much a feel of the spread on this game myself.  Its a war in the trenches and both teams have excellent lines (on both sides of ball).  The one thing I'll say is Kelly is the best coach Saban has played in a Nat Championship and that shouldn't be taken lightly.  I think he will use Golson differently than people might expect.  
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#58
Posted: 1/7/2013 12:22:57 AM
Great write up!! I agree 100%
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#59
Posted: 1/7/2013 12:26:11 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by kroch:

Good luck Jimmy.

The one difference you pointed out on the Horns team in 09 was that they played in the Big 12 with mostly spread offenses.  ND has played several run first teams (MSU being the big one).  Not sure the comparison is that apples to apples.  But nice write up.

Don't have much a feel of the spread on this game myself.  Its a war in the trenches and both teams have excellent lines (on both sides of ball).  The one thing I'll say is Kelly is the best coach Saban has played in a Nat Championship and that shouldn't be taken lightly.  I think he will use Golson differently than people might expect.  


The point about Texas is that they had never faced a running attack close to what Alabama had, and you point out the primary reason why - they played in a league that primarily passes the ball.  Yes, Notre Dame has played some teams with strong running attacks (against whom they really didn't fair very well), but none of those teams had an offense line or two running backs the caliber of what they'll see tomorrow night, so I think the comparison is valid.

I agree that Brian Kelly is the best coach Saban has faced in a national championship game, and as I said in my write-up, if he doesn't do something differently offensively, Notre Dame is dead and stinkin'.  And of course whatever they do, Golson will be the person who will have to execute it.  Golson is definitely the key for Notre Dame on the offensive side of the ball.


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#60
Posted: 1/7/2013 12:34:22 AM
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#61
Posted: 1/7/2013 1:59:36 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by blowoutgm:

Pretty much my thoughts too Jimmy- With all the time Saban has had to prepare, he will make Notre Dame one dimensional. Then the Notre Dame passing game will be forced into turnovers and it's game over! I think the Bama secondary is it's Achilles heel but the Irish won't be able to expose that weakness. Several other teams would have a better chance against Bama but this is a bad matchup for the Irish. i do believe they can slow Bama down but if you watch what the Pitt running game did against Notre Dame, then Yeldon and Lacy should be licking their chops. The Tide's offensive line is very good and should wear down the Irish as the game goes on. I see Alabama 23 - Notre Dame 12. (four fg's) This is my best case scenario for Notre Dame. It could easily be a 27 -6 type game. Good luck. I was waiting for my Ducks bet to win so I could add more units to this game. I have 5 units at -9 and am adding 5 more units at -9.5!!!


Yeah , I was rooting for an Alabama/Oregon match-up.  That would have been an epic game.  Instead we're stuck with this shitfest blowout game.  Oh well, at least we'll win some money.


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#62
Posted: 1/7/2013 2:41:29 AM

Your write ups are on point as they've been throughout the season.  I've incorporated your knowledge with my leans and have admittedly tailed your picks this season. 

GL Freak!

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#63
Posted: 1/7/2013 4:14:40 AM

Nice write up...one for the ages i believe i could read that over and over.

I remember the decussion we had at the start of the season i didn't think Alabama would make it back to the NCG. College football best watch out next year that's for sure.

Welcome back Jimmy your write ups or worth stoppping by now and then.

One thing about ND playing Alabama is they will learn the Alabama style of playing by studing for this game and use it next year and probably be better if they didn't have 29 senoirs leaving.

But the ND coaching staff will remember from studying tape after tape after tape, and they will be back someday.

Glad in my life time i get to see this match up again....

Enjoy the off season.

Roll-Tide

     

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#64
Posted: 1/7/2013 5:13:51 AM
Going BIG on this one. Good luck!! 
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#65
Posted: 1/7/2013 7:36:33 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by jimmydafreak:



LSU game.  The basis for my play was essentially the same.  I didn't believe LSU's offense led by Mettenberger would have much success scoring or even moving the ball.  Obviously Mettenberger played the game of his life which allowed LSU to dominate TOP.

Even though I liked TAMU when they played Alabama, I played the UNDER thinking that was the better bet rather than the side.  Both were winners.




Great write up and thanks. The LSU game was the one time I through caution to the wind and went totally with you. It looked good early on 17-9. Then the rug went out. They just didn't seem to have it that night and still won. Lotta factors are mentioned here with the officials and all. I think the lay-off helps the tide rather then hurt them. Gonna get some money back tonight. GL Freak. Your write ups all year helped me see different angles.
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#66
Posted: 1/7/2013 8:05:22 AM

I have the game capped at

Bama 24

ND 13

Now that its the day of the game...ive thought that ND was going to lose at least 4 or 5 this year!!??

I will be happy if Alabama wins Big....so we dont have to hear this ND is back crap...they played OU and USC (down) and some PUDS!!! They mix Football and religion, the fans bug the sh it out of me.....Just be glad if you dont have Facebook friends that are ND fans (like my wife does...she cant wait for teh game to be over so she can stop hearing about it!!) I dont do facebook!!!

I locked it in...(After A&M game)

NCAAFB Futures - 2013 BCS National Championship - Alabama +700

and when the line opened!!

Football - 269 Alabama -8 -115 for Game

BOL

ROLL TIDE

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#67
Posted: 1/7/2013 8:07:33 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by whsbaseball21:

have a 17 team parlay coming down to the bama ml.
500 to win 17,000 ish. do i even bother hedging?

i may let my parlay ride, at least for the first half. thoughts?

Let it Ride baby!!! Or put enought ML to get your money back on your Original wager.....about 150$ should get you there!!

Let it Ride baby!!!---- A Great D...vs a barely existent offense!!!

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#68
Posted: 1/7/2013 9:11:00 AM

great write up...just not the substance i was lookin for lol 

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#69
Posted: 1/7/2013 9:14:37 AM
 Great Write up...Already on em but going back in now.... GL..
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#70
Posted: 1/7/2013 9:50:08 AM

Your insight is terrific and very much appreciated. GL!
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#71
Posted: 1/7/2013 10:26:02 AM
Fantastic writeup and excellent RESEARCH and resulting Analysis

Totally agree ND will have trouble scoring keeping this game UNDER total as saban takes air out of ball. I easily see a Major defensive battle going down tonight where Bama's depth reigns SUPREME. I really think those 2 ALA rb's wear down that ND front 7 eventually.

Good luck tonight, have fun watching Bama win 3rd NC in four years
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#72
Posted: 1/7/2013 10:37:09 AM
What a stupid write up..gee why even play the game.ot will be shorter than that crap u wrote
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#73
Posted: 1/7/2013 10:48:08 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Lucan:

Nice write up...one for the ages i believe i could read that over and over.

I remember the decussion we had at the start of the season i didn't think Alabama would make it back to the NCG. College football best watch out next year that's for sure.

Welcome back Jimmy your write ups or worth stoppping by now and then.

One thing about ND playing Alabama is they will learn the Alabama style of playing by studing for this game and use it next year and probably be better if they didn't have 29 senoirs leaving.

But the ND coaching staff will remember from studying tape after tape after tape, and they will be back someday.

Glad in my life time i get to see this match up again....

Enjoy the off season.

Roll-Tide

     



Good to hear from you Lucan.  I hope you and your daughter are doing well!!!




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#74
Posted: 1/7/2013 10:50:17 AM
Regis Philbin will be in the stands
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#75
Posted: 1/7/2013 10:50:51 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BigPapa21:



Great write up and thanks. The LSU game was the one time I through caution to the wind and went totally with you. It looked good early on 17-9. Then the rug went out. They just didn't seem to have it that night and still won. Lotta factors are mentioned here with the officials and all. I think the lay-off helps the tide rather then hurt them. Gonna get some money back tonight. GL Freak. Your write ups all year helped me see different angles.


Yeah, that one hurt.

Alabama was extremely beat up at the end of the season, so the lay off has been a blessing for them.


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