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Author: [College Football] Topic: Dr. Strangelove's Bowl Season Picks
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#1
Posted: 12/11/2012 6:13:56 PM

Season Record: 68-49

 

USC/GT (OVER 64)

In a game where motivation will be key, I don't believe either team will be particually motivated. USC had hopes for a BCS bowl before the season. Now they are being relegated to a cold weather pre-New Years bowl. GT is coming off a disappointing 6-7 season without any significant wins. Lack of motivation affects the weakness of a team more than their strengths. And both teams are weak on defense. I'm sure USC will come in loose on offense and shouldn't have any trouble flinging the ball around on the weak GT pass D. While their defensive players will be more worried about career ending chop blocks than actually stopping the GT offense. Barring bad weather, it should be a high scoring game.

 

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#2
Posted: 12/11/2012 6:20:36 PM
Hmmmm I need to look this one over ....

makes sense 


Best of Luck Brother
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#3
Posted: 12/11/2012 6:25:39 PM
Thanks Double..BOL to you this bowl season.
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#4
Posted: 12/11/2012 10:49:59 PM
Looks spicy!
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#5
Posted: 12/13/2012 2:04:04 PM
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#6
Posted: 12/13/2012 10:01:45 PM

Nevada (+9)

I was hoping this line would move up a click to +10, but instead has gone the other way.. I just don't see a bad defensive team like Zona giving nearly double digits and being able to pull away from a Nevada offense that is averaging nearly 500 ypg.  There will be plenty of playmakers on the field, and this looks like an old fashioned shootout. I also don't see Nevada being intimidated by a BCS conference team given that they went to Berkeley earlier in the season and beat Cal. I've got a strong suspicion this could be our first bowl upset of the season, so I'm also putting a little on the ML +315

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#7
Posted: 12/16/2012 1:12:58 PM

Bowling Green (+7.5)

I've always been a big proponent of teams with the better defense getting more than a TD in these bowl games. Especially when we get two teams from AQ conferences of equal value. BG had a top notch defense this year that finished in the top 25 in just about every statistical category. Since starting out the season with 3 out of their first 4 games on the road, including Va Tech and Florida, BG has gone 7-1 in their last 8 games. With their only loss coming against MAC champ Kent State. As for line value in this game, San Jose has played 6 bowl teams this year. And the most they have been favored in any of those games was -4.. So there is some definite value with BG. The game is also being played in Washington DC. Which means there is no guarantee of good weather this time of year. Plus SJST is a warm weather team going into a cold environment, which could also affect their high powered offense. BG all day in this one. It will be a struggle for SJST. I'll also be putting a half unit down on the BG ML.

 

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#8
Posted: 12/16/2012 2:01:45 PM
Sorry, in my writeup I meant to say Kent State was the MAC runnerup.
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#9
Posted: 12/16/2012 2:17:15 PM
i like these....bg  esp!    had  nv  m.l. like a donk
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#10
Posted: 12/16/2012 4:30:11 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BIGfnPOO:

i like these....bg  esp!    had  nv  m.l. like a donk
Yeah, the Nevada ML loss was about the worst I've ever had. Nevada seems to be snakebit in these bowl games.
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#11
Posted: 12/19/2012 5:17:59 PM

BYU/SDST (UNDER 48)

I'm seeing this total creep down to 47.5 in a couple of books, so I went ahead and got it at the key number 48. I'm really wanting to take BYU minus the points in this spot. On paper they should win. But I'm not crazy about betting against home dogs in these bowls. These kinds of games seldom go by the book.

The Aztecs strengths of running the ball collides with the BYU defensive strength of stopping the run. When an unstoppable force meets an immovable object I usually side with the defense. As far as stopping the rush, BYU's 81 ypg is right up there with Bama and Notre Dame. They are also holding their oppostion to an average of just 59 plays per game. Which also makes me lean to the under.

I look for BYU to put 8 in the box and make Dingwell beat them with the pass. Which I have my doubts he can do with the game put on his shoulders.  So points will more than likely be at a premium if we don't catch too many bad breaks with special teams plays or costly turnovers. The one thing about this game that has me a little concerned is I've been hearing that Mendenhall plans on junking the QB under center I-formation offense in favor of the shotgun. He wants to give backup QB Lark a better opportunity to get the ball quickly out to his playmakers at WR since he isn't very mobile and not a threat to run.  But he has a better arm than Nelson. He's had a month to practice in this scheme, and whether this experiment works or not is anybody's guess.  Being the internet, this info doesn't come from a source I absolutely trust, so it could be wrong. But this is what I've heard BYU plans on doing with the offense to give Lark his best chance. Sometimes these changes fail, sometimes they are a big success. But I lean to the side of mild success at best....Hopefully!

 

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#12
Posted: 12/21/2012 5:47:55 PM

Ball State (+7.5)

I'll take my chances on the offense that has pushed everybody around this season with their rushing game. How effective QB Wenning will be tonight with his injury is anybody's guess. But BSU has been so dominant on the ground that he may not have to do much. They average 214 yards rushing on the season. But in their last 6 games have averaged 241 ypg rushing. Juwan Edwards is a load at 220 pounds, and he'll be tough to contain. BSU also has the better special teams. Which can also be an equalizer in a tight or field position game. Not a strong play for me. I don't really like BSU on the ML. But with an offense that averages 470 ypg, at anything over a TD I think they can hang.

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#13
Posted: 12/22/2012 5:28:24 AM
East Carolina (+6.5)
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#14
Posted: 12/22/2012 3:28:07 PM
Boise State ML (-200)
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#15
Posted: 12/24/2012 4:02:21 PM

SMU/Boise (OVER 61)

Because of where it's played, this is by far the most unpredictable bowl of all of the bowl games. It rarely plays by the numbers. The only thing that has been fairly consistent about this bowl since it's beginnings in 2002 is the game has gone Over the total in 8 out of it's 10 games. I think the combination of heat and humidity contributes to the defenses getting fatigued. I'm sure with nothing to lose June Jones will gamble a bit in this game. And Fresno will fling it all over the place against the Tulsa pass defense. I don't see how SMU keeps Fresno out of the high 30's or 40's here, so the over looks very reachable.

 

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#16
Posted: 12/24/2012 5:07:27 PM
Mac Wishes DrStrangeLove a very Merry Xmas to you & your family
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#17
Posted: 12/24/2012 5:37:53 PM
Thanks Mac. Same to you. Have a good one.
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#18
Posted: 12/26/2012 7:16:31 PM

Western Kentucky ML (-235)

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#19
Posted: 12/26/2012 7:16:38 PM

Western Kentucky ML (-235)

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#20
Posted: 12/26/2012 7:18:08 PM
Dr
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#21
Posted: 12/27/2012 2:47:35 PM

Bowling Green (+7.5)

Duke/Cincy (Over 61)

Baylor/UCLA (over 82)

 

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#22
Posted: 12/28/2012 4:52:44 PM
Rutgers (PK)
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#23
Posted: 12/28/2012 7:24:49 PM
Minnesota (+13)
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#24
Posted: 12/29/2012 2:55:28 PM

Syracuse (+4)

Navy +14 (-120)

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#25
Posted: 12/29/2012 2:55:45 PM

Syracuse (+4)

Navy +14 (-120)

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