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Author: [College Football] Topic: 5 Dimes lines up.......
Skipster send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#26
Posted: 12/4/2012 1:04:27 PM
Lots of good stuff here.  Never underestimate Jimbo Fisher's ability to play down to the competition. That said, FSU has been murder ATS in the bowls for years.  They have a system that works and Fisher hasn't destroyed that.  Yet.
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#27
Posted: 12/4/2012 7:47:57 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by bookieassassin:


The problem with playing NIU.....if any
is a MASSIVE talent advantage the Criminoles enjoy......FSU's  DL/LB are (among) the most talented in the nation.......
  *just finished my Power Rankings for bowls...looks like Fla St is (about) the nation's 12th best team...
Huskies (arguably) about  #38......behind Boise .....Utah St.....and Fresno...just ahead of Louisville
   *line is about where it should be....I would make it 12' or so if I was taking action.......

 note > the team they just beat ('ranked' 17th or whatever).....Kent St....comes in at #53 or so

Yeah I just point to the dismal ATS of how they play under that supposed ability edge too often; It looks by all reports that No Illinois players are happy very happy the off coordinator was offered the HC job. They were ecstatic to be in the Orange Bowl. The BCS was facing a lawsuit and still an ongoing anti trust investigation by the US Congress has them shittin bricks. ESPN talking heads are trashing the "travesty of No Illinois and their weak schedule..." but this will motivate the players; they will not be intimidated. I've given up on ESPN and do not suscribe to cable, and if it's on where I'm at, the volume is lowered.

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#28
Posted: 12/4/2012 10:18:01 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Quantum_Leap:

TCU just has a recent history with this HC of coming prepared in Bowl Games, Rose Bowl 2011 and 2 years prior come to mind, and MSU is as low as you can get since opening day over Bose they are regressing. Boise would beat them if they'd rematch it. TCU got robbed vs Oklahoma, and laid notice to Texas they were to be reckoned with. TCU program knows the importance of winning that last bowl game This one I figure they win by two-three TDs. (?)

TCU got robbed vs. Oklahoma?  Maybe.  But what about the WVU game?  The 2-point conversion pass was clearly obviously blatantly incomplete but they were gifted the win.

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#29
Posted: 12/6/2012 10:04:01 PM
Hey Bookie, Have a happy and blessed Christmas and
a very profitable Bowl season.



Thanks for all your wisdom and insight this season.
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#30
Posted: 12/7/2012 8:44:48 AM
QLeap.....I would lean strongly to the Huskies.....but lots of 'happy' / motivated people get their behind beat every day......the play here (I think) would be NIU ML...(or pass)
    *recall in these bowl games the SU winner also wins ATS....at a very high rate..........

thanks WG.....all the best..............

wassup mws....Clemson gonna show up?.........


I'll have a bowl guide with lotsa stuff (some maybe even useful) this weekend or 1st part of next week.....too damm busy
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#31
Posted: 12/7/2012 10:25:05 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by bookieassassin:


I'll have a bowl guide with lotsa stuff (some maybe even useful) this weekend or 1st part of next week.....too damm busy

Sounds like you need to get priorities straightened out.  
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#32
Posted: 12/7/2012 12:02:41 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by mws:

TCU got robbed vs. Oklahoma?  Maybe.  But what about the WVU game?  The 2-point conversion pass was clearly obviously blatantly incomplete but they were gifted the win.


Blatantly incomplete?  No sir.

They took that win on the road which is what Patterson teams do, play with that chip on their shoulder.
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#33
Posted: 12/7/2012 1:23:46 PM
I have no idea about Clemson.  I'm hoping that *I* show up, but I haven't talked the wife into a trip to Atlanta yet.
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#34
Posted: 12/7/2012 5:34:39 PM
UCLA (PK)
Ore St (-2)
TCU (-2.5)
LSU (-3.5)
NIU (+14)
Louisville (+14.5)
A&M / OU (OV 71)
ND (+10.5)

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#35
Posted: 12/8/2012 2:12:06 PM
talked the wife into a trip to Atlanta yet.
   *damm mws.....get some 'scene control' man.....


that's a great looking card AL..................
   *UCLA ....is....the way to go......you're right
the better defensive team ....with huge crowd edge...learning new systems....started strong...kinda faded some down the stretch.....building for next year...now with time to rest.....should emerge on 12/27 a super fired up....and tough azz team........

Bears with great finish......no doubt playing way over their head.......playing their azz off vs a vulnerable K St and tired Okie St.......and (something WAS wrong) TTech......now with rest.....D should revert back to old self........
   *if game was played on 12/8 or so.....Baylor would be the play

NOTE:  to continue the silly public vs square debate.........this game is a great example of what the terms refer to......

AGAIN....it's Vegas slang and really doesn't suggest dumb vs smart.....as most of you seem to take it...

Here.....one team finished very strong (Baylor)....almost beating Texas..played OU tough....beat the crap outta Kan St....and whipped a very tough Okie St....leading the 'public' (recreational bettors)....into thinking they are better....than they really are....> Baylor opponents were ripe for a loss...(mostly)

The bettors that are experienced....and take this this sh-e-e-t seriously........are aware of that this is a FADE.....and not PLAY ON.....situation.......
 **especially vs a team on the rise team like UCLA....

Therefore....UCLA is referred to as a 'sharp' play here....as the VALUE is clearly with the Bruins

** does not mean UCLA will surely cover....or you are a dumb-azz if you bet on the Bears.....just like buying a stock too high is a bad idea....> you might make money sure....but still a bad idea  ........... 

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#36
Posted: 12/8/2012 2:24:07 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by bookieassassin:


The problem with playing NIU.....if any
is a MASSIVE talent advantage the Criminoles enjoy......FSU's  DL/LB are (among) the most talented in the nation.......
  *just finished my Power Rankings for bowls...looks like Fla St is (about) the nation's 12th best team...
Huskies (arguably) about  #38...
...behind Boise .....Utah St.....and Fresno...just ahead of Louisville
   *line is about where it should be....I would make it 12' or so if I was taking action.......

 note > the team they just beat ('ranked' 17th or whatever).....Kent St....comes in at #53 or so

getting ready to Jump on the OVER ....

Just see tons of Points ....




Great work as always brother ...thanks for all your year long help
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#37
Posted: 12/8/2012 5:45:58 PM
good stuff about the UCLA game, and the sharps / squares debate...



i haven't bet TCU yet... and i'm still not sure about that one... their resume isn't impressing me much... haven't bet ND either, but just waiting for the best line on that one... the rest are all locked in...

games i am still considering:  Washington, Duke, Kansas St... want to get 10 or more with K St if possible...
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#38
Posted: 12/11/2012 2:05:03 AM
coaching changes have my head spinning.  also, first suspensions of the season for the Beavs.

Tex Tech HC and OC
SJSU HC others?
cin HC most of staff OC staying on to coach bowl
WKU HC
Wisc HC others?
OK St OC

You got more?  Who's coaching the games?
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#39
Posted: 12/11/2012 4:43:09 AM
good stuff as usual....looking at adding Fres St and Ole Miss...nice talent advantage for FSU and surprisenly good pass defense...Old Mrs seems like the hungrier team and better coached, BOL again this bowl season bud
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#40
Posted: 12/11/2012 12:53:24 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Skipster:

coaching changes have my head spinning.  also, first suspensions of the season for the Beavs.

Tex Tech HC and OC
SJSU HC others?
cin HC most of staff OC staying on to coach bowl
WKU HC
Wisc HC others?
OK St OC

You got more?  Who's coaching the games?


Wait until players start going out and raising hell and get
themselves suspended for the bowl game cause they've got
too much time on their hands.
Bookie, what's the status of those 2 ORES. D linemen and OU
CB Powell? Will you be keeping tabs on this?I've got a hunch
they'll be a lot of them this year.

Thanks Bud
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#41
Posted: 12/11/2012 2:02:39 PM
here's a list of coaching changes....
  *update where needed

                                 OUT                   IN

Arkansas               John L. Smith     Brett Bielema
Arkansas State       Gus Malzahn            ?
Auburn                    Gene Chizik     Gus Malzahn
Boston College     Frank Spaziani     Steve Addazio
California                Jeff Tedford     Sonny Dykes
Cincinnati                Butch Jones     T
ommy Tuberville    
Colorado                 Jon Embree     Mike MacIntyre
FIU                     Mario Cristobal            ?
Georgia State         (r) Bill Curry     Trent Miles
Idaho                     Robb Akey       
Paul Petrino
Kent State            Darrell Hazell              ?
Kentucky               Joker Phillips      Mark Stoops
Louisiana Tech       Sonny Dykes             ?
N.C. State              Tom O'Brien     Dave Doeren
Northern Illinois     Dave Doeren        Rod Carey
Purdue                  Danny Hope       Darrel Hazell
San Jose State     Mike MacIntyre           ?
Southern Miss        Ellis                           ?
Temple                Steve Addazio              ?
Tennessee            Derek Dooley     Butch Jones
Texas Tech       Tommy Tuberville             ?
USF                       Skip Holtz         Willie Taggart
UTEP                    Mike Price          Sean Kugler
WKU                  Willie Taggart       Bobby Petrino
W Mich                   Bill Cubit                    ?
Wisconsin           Brett Bielema                 ?


BOWL COACH:
Arkansas State - Gus Malzahn, departing head coach
Cincinnati - Steve Stripling, defensive line coach
Kent State - Darrell Hazell, departing head coach
N.C. State - Dana Bible, offensive coordinator
Northern Illinois - Rod Carey, offensive line coach named new head coach
Purdue - Patrick Higgins, wide receivers coach
Texas Tech - Chris Thomsen, offensive line coach
Western Kentucky - Lance Guidry, defensive coordinator
Wisconsin - Barry Alvarez, former head coach and current AD
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#42
Posted: 12/11/2012 2:11:51 PM
tough to determine how a team will perform for an interim guy......or especially a guy leaving

one 'fade for sure'......or rather do not 'play on'.... situation......

is a team off a disappointing year...and the interim guys have little / no chance of returning....because these coaches are spending most of their time looking for other jobs .....
   *as always though....best to avoid games involving a great deal of UNCERTAINTY......> more uncertainty....tougher it is to predict the outcome
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#43
Posted: 12/11/2012 2:31:34 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:



Wait until players start going out and raising hell and get
themselves suspended for the bowl game cause they've got
too much time on their hands.
Bookie, what's the status of those 2 ORES. D linemen and OU
CB Powell? Will you be keeping tabs on this?I've got a hunch
they'll be a lot of them this year.

Thanks Bud


the Oreg St guys are no big deal anyway...
  *all back-ups....DE (RUDOLPH)  Fifita a key contributor in passing downs....(25 tackles...5 TFL/3sacks or so).....DT Rosa played in nickel/dime situations too....LB Mafi depth guy

Big loss for Sooners (most likely) is WR Jalen Saunders (weed)....their top WR the last 8 games or so (Fresno transfer)....last 3 games had 24 catches for 393 yds....+ PR for TD vs Okie St....caught like 8 balls in 1st qtr vs Irish........

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#44
Posted: 12/11/2012 3:20:13 PM
coaching update....

forgot.... that Todd Monken....OKIE ST OC....
is supposedly the new HC at S Miss....(he surely won't coach the bowl game)
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#45
Posted: 12/11/2012 10:24:12 PM
Love ucla in there bowl game Gl this season 
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#46
Posted: 12/12/2012 6:54:07 AM
Texas OC Brian Harsin.....is (unofficial) the new HC at Ark St.......
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#47
Posted: 12/12/2012 6:59:20 AM
correction to above post....

Ark St -  DC John Thompson will be the interim bowl coach
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#48
Posted: 12/12/2012 1:39:04 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by bookieassassin:

talked the wife into a trip to Atlanta yet.
   *damm mws.....get some 'scene control' man.....


that's a great looking card AL..................
   *UCLA ....is....the way to go......you're right
the better defensive team ....with huge crowd edge...learning new systems....started strong...kinda faded some down the stretch.....building for next year...now with time to rest.....should emerge on 12/27 a super fired up....and tough azz team........

Bears with great finish......no doubt playing way over their head.......playing their azz off vs a vulnerable K St and tired Okie St.......and (something WAS wrong) TTech......now with rest.....D should revert back to old self........
   *if game was played on 12/8 or so.....Baylor would be the play

NOTE:  to continue the silly public vs square debate.........this game is a great example of what the terms refer to......

AGAIN....it's Vegas slang and really doesn't suggest dumb vs smart.....as most of you seem to take it...

Here.....one team finished very strong (Baylor)....almost beating Texas..played OU tough....beat the crap outta Kan St....and whipped a very tough Okie St....leading the 'public' (recreational bettors)....into thinking they are better....than they really are....> Baylor opponents were ripe for a loss...(mostly)

The bettors that are experienced....and take this this sh-e-e-t seriously........are aware of that this is a FADE.....and not PLAY ON.....situation.......
 **especially vs a team on the rise team like UCLA....

Therefore....UCLA is referred to as a 'sharp' play here....as the VALUE is clearly with the Bruins

** does not mean UCLA will surely cover....or you are a dumb-azz if you bet on the Bears.....just like buying a stock too high is a bad idea....> you might make money sure....but still a bad idea  ........... 


I don't think "sharps" would take a side in this game.  It should be a back and forth game and either team could win by 14 to 20 points. 

My guess is the sharp would take the over or take a pass on this game.

Two good offenses + two shaky defenses = over or no play

But if you prefer a team that can run and pass, you go with UCLA.  But if you prefer a team that passes so well they don't need to run much, then you go with Baylor.
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#49
Posted: 12/12/2012 1:51:45 PM
usc rolls over gt.........lsu rolls.......and last but not least al......rolls
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#50
Posted: 12/12/2012 3:05:34 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by thorpe:


I don't think "sharps" would take a side in this game.  It should be a back and forth game and either team could win by 14 to 20 points. 

My guess is the sharp would take the over or take a pass on this game.

Two good offenses + two shaky defenses = over or no play

But if you prefer a team that can run and pass, you go with UCLA.  But if you prefer a team that passes so well they don't need to run much, then you go with Baylor.


AGAIN......you're thinking right /wrong.....smart / stupid

IT'S SIMPLE VEGAS SLANG....REFERRING MOSTLY TO BETTING BEHAVIORS........recreational vs experienced or professional bettors bet differently..........PERIOD

Just as a rookie day trader....or a guy that studies for a week or two....thinks he's gonna kill the Forex market
  *SHOCKER!....his approach / strategy will vary tremendously from an educated /seasoned / successful veteran trader ...............
*YES....this guy may in fact make more money than the pro (short run)

However.....his METHODS......might be referred to as amateurish...or 'square'............................get it?....
     *his stock picks.........ditto

*Experienced bettors recognize that a team that finishes strong.........is not NECESSARILY......a team to 'play on' in bowls........especially vs a young team on the rise.......like UCLA.....who is thrilled to play here....with a nice home-field edge too.......> started strong...then faded

SO.....in a simple labeling of betting trends....Baylor is probably a 'public' favorite....UCLA ...probably....the side (if any)....most 'sharps' will be on

--------------------------------------------------------------

Better example is probably Georgia / Nebraska.......Most of the money will follow the teams as last seen on TV.....very few recreational bettors (99%+ here) will be on Nebraska........most professionals.....are waiting for this one to rise further......as the VALUE is with the Huskers in a big way........> look for a very late push on Nebraska
    *Georgia....is clearly.....the SQUARE......side
      Nebraska......clearly the SHARP side..........

Georgia.....may.....and should.....slaughter the Huskers
But the pro's bet the NUMBER (not the TEAM).......and will INVEST in Nebraska at an inflated price................
  *and will most likely.....avoid Georgia in this spot
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