Posted: 12/12/2012 11:05:55 AM
Originally Posted by jdnmoney
the Hawaii game and this game have very little in common...
Hawaii was 100% finesse and had NO running game,
they depended entirely on pass protection and throwing 50-60 passes per game...
northern Illinois will play big boy football wih FSU and run for above average success. they will sustain drives... I saw what they did to kent, who has a BETTER RUSH DEFENSE THAN FLORIDA STATE...
I'm telling you right now, motivation will be with NIU. they will take the 40 days, make them all meaningful, be planning, scheming, finding every weakness they can to exploit. how motivated will FSU be ?
I'm not quite sure
I guess I meant more in terms of NON AQ vs. Qualifer (not particularly the match up). That said, I agree with your Hawaii take, but the same can be said about NILL imo. For the most part, they are a one-dimensional team. They rely heavily on the run; ie. Jordan Lynch. NILL ranked second in the MAC in rushing attempts, only behind OU, and last in pass attempts.
This is why I think they could end up playing a style of football they haven't had too all year. Although I didn't watch every game NILL played, I'm sure this team was in a TON of 3rd & mediums and 3rd & short(s). Their 3rd down percentage ranked 1st in the MAC. This tells me one thing; Jordan Lynch did a lot of work on Third Downs. In comparison, it reminds me of watching Michigan. When Michigan had the advantage up front, and maintained a short distance on 3rd down, they easily convereted and kept drives alive b/c Denard could pick up a first down almost at will. On the flip side, when playing teams like Michigan State, when they had a ton of 3rd & 7s, or 3rd & 10s, the game became much different.
I don't see Lynch running on this defense "consistently" enough to give NILL a run/pass option all game on 3rd down. And as mentioned in my prior post, I think they end up being in more 3rd & Longs than they have all year, which will put them in situations they are not used too. If that happens, then two touchdowns is not a lot.
Now. We are talking FSU. They may not show up at all, and Lynch could run wild. -
Good Luck on the bet! It will be enteraining for sure. As for me, I really like SCarolina (I was undefeated betting Michigan - for and against - all year). Michigan simply doesn't have the horses up front on either side of the ball, plus, skill positions heavily favors SC. The TE for Carolina will be a nightmare match up for Michigan - and he could have big game.
I also like 3 Overs; Northwestern v Miss St, Ole Miss/Pitt and UCLA/Baylor.
Any insight on those?