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Author: [College Football] Topic: MONSTER PLAY (wk 11)
jdnmoney send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
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#1
Posted: 11/5/2012 7:14:56 PM
MONSTER PLAYS 8-1 YTD


MARSHALL -2 vs UAB

write up coming
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#2
Posted: 11/5/2012 7:17:10 PM
Like it.
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#3
Posted: 11/5/2012 7:38:22 PM
I agree with this. UAB doesn't haven't the firepower to match up with Marshall. There is a huge mismatch at the QB position.
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#4
Posted: 11/5/2012 7:39:59 PM
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#5
Posted: 11/5/2012 8:14:41 PM
Marshall (4-5) vs UAB (2-7)
Marshall -2, 2.5, 3, or 3.5
o/u 74.5



Series History:
2009: Marshall -7    (Wins 27-7, covers) line off by 6
2010: Marshall +10 (wins 37-17, covers) line off by 30
2011: Marshall -5    (wins 59-14, covers) line off by 40

avg score: Marshall 41 : UAB 12.67

Marshall has owned the series as of late with UAB, and the oddsmakers have failed to adjust the spread. Each battle since 2009 has seen marshall increasingly and more convincingly hand UAB a butt whooping. why should that continue this year?

UAB:

UAB is coming off of thier 1st win this year vs a D-1A opponent. Their other win was vs Southeastern Louisiana, who is 3-6 this year, considered one of the worst teams in their league (Southland Conf.) and just lost to Sam Houston State 70-0.

UAB beat what I would consider the worst team in C-USA this year in southern miss. they were down 10-0 at the half and then came back mightily to score 27 points in the 2nd half, to win 27-19.

UAB averages 29.8 points per game, but 45 of their 268 points came against tulane and 52 came against southeastern louisiana. in the other 7 games they are averaging 24.4 ppg. UAB is predominately a passing offense this year, passing for 2812 yards and rushing for 999. they average 423 yards per game overall. UAB comes into the game using starting QB Austin Brown, who took over for Jonathan Perry early in the year. He has completed 57.9% of his throws for 2086 yds, and a ratio of 12/7 TD/INT. UAB has fumbled 18 times this year and lost 11. they are 53/130 on 3rd down this year (41%) and very efficient in the RZ (31/34 scoring, 24/34 TD's) their net punting average is 36.1

Defensively UAB is horrendous. they are giving up 36 ppg and 442.7 yards per game. they allow 42% conversions on third down, and allow 185 rushing ypg, 4.7 ypr. teams in the redzone have scored 39/43 chances overall, 28 of those were Touchdowns. UAB has a -4 turnover ratio (19-15)

Marshall:

Marshall comes into this game after beating memphis, and they have a great chance to become bowl eligible this year. When they play this game saturday afternoon, Marshall will still have a shot to win their half of the conference (until UCF beats UTEP later on in the evening) Marshall knows it must win this game saturday as their last two games are vs Houston and ECU.

Marshall comes into this game averaging 42 ppg and 543.9 ypg on the season. they have been especially efficient passing the football, with Rakeem Cato completing 69.1% of his passes for 3290 yds and a ratio of 27/7. marshall has shown the ability to be extremely efficient this year on offense, converting 55% of thier 3rd downs 78/141 on the year, and in the RZ they are 37/43 scoring, 32/43 TD%. remarkably, in 468 pass attempts (appx 500 dropbacks total) they have only surrendered 15 sacks. Marshall has also been effective enough running the ball, averaging 164.4 ypg rushing. Marshall has 8 receivers with over 10 catches this year, and three different people have caught 50 passes. their best WR is tough to identify, as Tommy Shular has 82 catches for 812 yards and Aaron Dobson 53 for 618 and has made so many incredible catches over the last two years. Antavoius wilson is also solid on the year, as he has 9 TD catches already.

Marshall is equally as bad on defense as UAB, allowing 43 ppg and 464 yards per game. they struggle to get to the quarterback as they have only 8 sacks on the year. Marshall allows 233 rush ypg and 231 pass ypg. they have 6 INT's on the year, and have recovered 5 fumbles. their net punting average is 42.1 (very good net) and most of their kickoffs are either touchbacks or the avg. return is 20 yards. very good kickoff coverage.

When looking at this game, I think it will be high scoring. the o/u is 74.5. I think that will be pretty close. I will say that Marshall should be clicking on all cylanders this week as this game is too important to lose for them. UAB had a big win last week, but i think this team is garbage. they are going to struggle to keep up in this offensive showcase and although it might be close for a while, Marshall should pull away, make UAB 1 dimensional, and find themselves in good situations offensively. Marshall might not punt. If they have continuity on offense, and can get a few stops on defense, they will win this comfortably.

In guessing the score, i will say 49-31 Marshall.

MARSHALL -2  MONSTER PLAY 4 units
over 74.5 1 unit

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#6
Posted: 11/5/2012 9:57:24 PM
looks like another big winner


Gl my friend
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#7
Posted: 11/5/2012 9:59:13 PM
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#8
Posted: 11/5/2012 10:09:54 PM

minor point, but 2009 line was off by 13, not 6.

 

given all your points, why do you feel the over is more attractive than marsh -2?

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#9
Posted: 11/5/2012 10:53:48 PM
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#10
Posted: 11/5/2012 11:06:02 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by redbook1:

minor point, but 2009 line was off by 13, not 6.

 

given all your points,  why do you feel the over is more attractive than marsh -2?


He doesn't! He likes the Marsh -2 
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#11
Posted: 11/5/2012 11:06:52 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by redbook1:

minor point, but 2009 line was off by 13, not 6.

 

given all your points, why do you feel the over is more attractive than marsh -2?


yes u are right...


the over is enticing but I like Marshall to butt pound UAB
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#12
Posted: 11/5/2012 11:07:14 PM
now i see it.
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#13
Posted: 11/5/2012 11:20:32 PM
thoroughly written analysis and it looks very accurate... nice pic
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#14
Posted: 11/5/2012 11:22:37 PM
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#15
Posted: 11/6/2012 12:08:18 AM
GOODDD luck!!!!  MEXI  
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#16
Posted: 11/6/2012 12:12:36 AM
Looks pretty solid to me, nice writeup bro. Might have to tail u here.
Posted using a mobile device.
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#17
Posted: 11/6/2012 12:21:55 AM
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#18
Posted: 11/6/2012 1:00:03 AM
Still like it a -3 partner?
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#19
Posted: 11/6/2012 5:21:44 AM
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#20
Posted: 11/6/2012 8:08:32 AM
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#21
Posted: 11/6/2012 8:13:11 AM
Jumping on the Thundering Herd right now 


thanks Brother for all ur help ...including the Rice/Tulane Over last week
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#22
Posted: 11/6/2012 9:29:57 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by jdnmoney:

MONSTER PLAYS 8-1 YTD


MARSHALL -2 vs UAB

write up coming
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#23
Posted: 11/6/2012 10:28:41 AM
Love, love this play.


Made a lot of money this year from fading UAB and playing on Marshall. 


Only thing that concerns me is how all the simulators have this a close game.....I honestly just don't see it. This will be the biggest bet of my gambling career, that's how confident I am of this game
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#24
Posted: 11/6/2012 11:31:12 AM
Great write-up, looked into each team some more and Marshall looks like the right side. Got -3 but with teams this bad I expect more TDs than FG's so not worried about the 3. GL and keep the great write-ups coming!
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#25
Posted: 11/6/2012 11:52:36 AM

I am on it too, Marshall cost me last week by not covering Memphis

So they can make it up this week...

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