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Week 11 Plays

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Posted: #1
Overall: 66-58 (+3.95 units)
Week 10: 6-4 (+1.8 units)

Nothing locked in yet. I'll try and get some thoughts together early in the week.

Unrelated note, college basketball season is five days away...



Leans:
UCONN +4.5, Alabama -13, Iowa State +10, Northwestern +12, UMASS +14, Rutgers -17.5, UNC -8.5, Air Force +9.5, Oklahoma -20, Arizona State +10
 
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Posted: #2
Friday will be glorious.  




 
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Posted: #3
Leaning UCONN myself.  Think Pitt is deflated after that 3ot loss. 


 
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Posted: #4
Some nice Looking leans 

Best of luck as always Brother
BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!
 
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Posted: #5
Turnstone, Retain, DoubleUp


 
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Posted: #6

Ready for hoops?

 

 
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Posted: #7
UMASS +16 (1 unit)
Are the Minutemen the worst team in the FBS? Probably. Are they one of my favorite plays this week? Yep. I backed Akron catching an absurd number of points @ Kent State but will happily go the other way here. Akron has not been favored against an FBS team since November of 2010 (-1 vs. Buffalo) and just played a balls-to-the-wall game against its biggest rival. Laying over 2 TD's here is kind of ridiculous when you consider that this line was probably around -7 prior to the start of the season. UMASS was a 21-point dog at UCONN and a 17-point dog at Western Michigan, both of whom are miles ahead of Akron. Way too much line value to pass up this play.

 
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Posted: #8
Quote Originally Posted by JFen31:

UMASS +16 (1 unit)
Are the Minutemen the worst team in the FBS? Probably. Are they one of my favorite plays this week? Yep. I backed Akron catching an absurd number of points @ Kent State but will happily go the other way here. Akron has not been favored against an FBS team since November of 2010 (-1 vs. Buffalo) and just played a balls-to-the-wall game against its biggest rival. Laying over 2 TD's here is kind of ridiculous when you consider that this line was probably around -7 prior to the start of the season. UMASS was a 21-point dog at UCONN and a 17-point dog at Western Michigan, both of whom are miles ahead of Akron. Way too much line value to pass up this play.



Granted the line would have been 9 less 3 months ago, but I still dont see the value. Akron finally gets a game that can easily win against a group they are better than. Zips have been putting it together as the weeks go by and UMass has been getting worse.


bol regardless
 
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Posted: #9
Jfen thanks bro for the advise this weekend taking Oregon instead of Alabama  it was the right choice
 
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Posted: #10
bol jfen. Cant wait for some hoops!!!
 
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Posted: #11
Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:



Granted the line would have been 9 less 3 months ago, but I still dont see the value. Akron finally gets a game that can easily win against a group they are better than. Zips have been putting it together as the weeks go by and UMass has been getting worse.


bol regardless


I see your points, Train. One of those weird spots though where you get a team completely unaccustomed not just to the role of big favorite, but a favorite at all. Totally different mindset. Also not sure UMASS has gotten worse, but rather it seems that way because of the killer schedule (@ NIU, @ Vandy, BG, @ WMU, Ohio, @ Miami OH, @ Michigan last 7 weeks).

GL as always bud
 
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Posted: #12
Nowhere else to put these, so I'll post 'em here. Just going on following the race for the last several months and digging into some of these polls and turnout models. It's the Political Science major geek in me...

Romney wins EC +325 (2 units)
Romney Virginia +105 (2 unit)
Romney Pennsylvania +450 (1 unit)
Romney Ohio +190 (1 unit)
Romney Wisconsin +310 (0.5 unit)
Romney Minnesota +1000 (0.5 unit)


 
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Posted: #13
If Romney doesn't win Ohio he's pretty much done.
 
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Posted: #14
[Quote: Originally Posted by JFen31] Nowhere else to put these, so I'll post 'em here. Just going on following the race for the last several months and digging into some of these polls and turnout models. It's the Political Science major geek in me...

Romney wins EC +325 (2 units)
Romney Virginia +105 (2 unit)
Romney Pennsylvania +450 (1 unit)
Romney Ohio +190 (1 unit)
Romney Wisconsin +310 (0.5 unit)
Romney Minnesota +1000 (0.5 unit)


Hope your spot on with these!!!
 
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Posted: #15

Quote Originally Posted by superdave94:

Quote Originally Posted by JFen31:

Nowhere else to put these, so I'll post 'em here. Just going on following the race for the last several months and digging into some of these polls and turnout models. It's the Political Science major geek in me...

Romney wins EC +325 (2 units)
Romney Virginia +105 (2 unit)
Romney Pennsylvania +450 (1 unit)
Romney Ohio +190 (1 unit)
Romney Wisconsin +310 (0.5 unit)
Romney Minnesota +1000 (0.5 unit)


Hope your spot on with these!!!

Amen brother! Always root for JFen but never this hard!

 
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Posted: #16

Quote Originally Posted by JFen31:

Nowhere else to put these, so I'll post 'em here. Just going on following the race for the last several months and digging into some of these polls and turnout models. It's the Political Science major geek in me...

Romney wins EC +325 (2 units)
Romney Virginia +105 (2 unit)
Romney Pennsylvania +450 (1 unit)
Romney Ohio +190 (1 unit)
Romney Wisconsin +310 (0.5 unit)
Romney Minnesota +1000 (0.5 unit)


Is Romney gonna pull it off?

 
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Posted: #17
[Quote: Originally Posted by YACKER]

Amen brother! Always root for JFen but never this hard

Most definetly!!!!! Yacker, I follow your picks as well!!!

 
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Posted: #18
Really do think so. Some of these turnout models, especially those utilized by the MSM outlets, refuse to acknowledge the drastically different composition of the electorate relative to 2008.

One more add:

Romney Florida -240 (5 units)

This number is not going down. I looked at the six most recent Florida polls and read through the methodology/questions in each one. The lone poll showing Obama with a lead (+1) is PPP, a Democratic polling firm that used a 44-38-18 sample. In '08, Florida was 37-34-29. Independents are supporting Romney by a wide margin this year, particularly in Florida. This same PPP poll, with an unrealistically biased D model, has Obama with negative approval ratings. There's a reason he stopped campaigning here. -240 (BetOnline) is a downright steal, IMO.

OK, that's enough politics. Back to football.


 
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Posted: #19
Quote Originally Posted by JFen31:

Really do think so. Some of these turnout models, especially those utilized by the MSM outlets, refuse to acknowledge the drastically different composition of the electorate relative to 2008.

One more add:

Romney Florida -240 (5 units)

This number is not going down. I looked at the six most recent Florida polls and read through the methodology/questions in each one. The lone poll showing Obama with a lead (+1) is PPP, a Democratic polling firm that used a 44-38-18 sample. In '08, Florida was 37-34-29. Independents are supporting Romney by a wide margin this year, particularly in Florida. This same PPP poll, with an unrealistically biased D model, has Obama with negative approval ratings. There's a reason he stopped campaigning here. -240 (BetOnline) is a downright steal, IMO.

OK, that's enough politics. Back to football.



Hah. I'll tail you on this since your a poly sci major.

Have you seen any numbers for college hoops yet? Betonline and 5 dimes don't have 'em up.

You know where I can look at some anywhere?
 
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Posted: #20
hoooooooooooooops
 
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Posted: #21
Jfen, are u going to take Romney for the entire election too?
 
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Posted: #22
Been busy with work and CBB, so I only played UMASS in the early part of the day.

Probably will be on Cal and Auburn later.
 
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Posted: #23
Looks like a great call on UMass
 
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Posted: #24
Whoa. Very surprised to get an outright win on UMASS. Folks, do not lay 2+ TD's with bad teams. Ever.

Two for tonight:

Cal +30 (1 unit)
Auburn +15.5 (1 unit)




 
 
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Posted: #25
Quote Originally Posted by JFen31:

Whoa. Very surprised to get an outright win on UMASS. Folks, do not lay 2+ TD's with bad teams. Ever.

Two for tonight:

Cal +30 (1 unit)
Auburn +15.5 (1 unit)




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