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Author: [College Football] Topic: Vegas seems to be begging for WV $$$???
hawgpix send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: MGM Grand |
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#1
Posted: 10/10/2012 12:35:45 AM
What you think?  Why not put it at 6.5?  Why is line not moving, and even dropping in places, if everyone on WV?  I smell a rat! 
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#2
Posted: 10/10/2012 1:56:19 PM
I see Texas tech covering in this one. Wv is flying back to back to Texas for games and also have to face Kansas state after Texas tech. I think it's like the Houston vs jets game, I took jets +8.5 and was paid out nicely!

GL
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#3
Posted: 10/10/2012 2:09:08 PM
time for a slip up for wv
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#4
Posted: 10/10/2012 2:11:13 PM
i'm with you tiezrzero ! i even post my thread about it! good luck
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#5
Posted: 10/10/2012 2:12:31 PM
How are they begging for WV money, if you knew how the point spreads were  made then youd know they are begging for Tech money.
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#6
Posted: 10/10/2012 2:31:32 PM
supp there was a massive move early on TTU in LV.  market now pushing back.  gl.
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#7
Posted: 10/10/2012 2:34:28 PM
Everybody waiting for Mountaineers to trip on their face
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#8
Posted: 10/10/2012 2:39:17 PM
Yes everybody is waiting for them to lose. TT is a weird match-up for them though. Oklahoma was a bad match-up for TT. TT needs to face a team with a bad D which WV has. This is an interesting game, I may parlay TT ML in this one. 
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#9
Posted: 10/10/2012 2:54:28 PM
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#10
Posted: 10/10/2012 5:37:13 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by jtoler:

How are they begging for WV money, if you knew how the point spreads were  made then youd know they are begging for Tech money.

I've always been under the assumption the lines were set to achieve 50/50 action on each game.  Not actually for a 50/50 result, as a lot of people think.  Can you enlighten me further?  Thanks for info.
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#11
Posted: 10/11/2012 7:56:59 AM
Not sure if this is what you are asking but Ill try and answer as best I can.  All Vegas wants is 50% monetary value on each side. Around 85% of individual side bets are coming in on West Virginia and 60% of individual ML bets are also on West Virginia.  Even though only around 15% of individual bets are on Texas Tech, Vegas has an even amount of money on each side.  The line did go down 1 point since the line opened, but that was not because more individual bets were on West Virginia but because more money from the 15% of individual spread bets and the 40% of individual ML bets on Texas Tech outweighed the amount of money coming in on West Virginia.  Another reason for a line move though could be an injury which one would need to look out for.  If both sides receive an equal amount of money then Vegas wins (10% juice).  Vegas sets a line to try and get an equal amount of money on each side. Vegas does not care that 85% of incoming bets are on West Virginia but do care about achieving a monetary value of 50% on each side. The amount of incoming bets on West Virginia says its a public play and the initial 1 point drop in the line would indicate Vegas would like some more action on West Virginia money wise, but does that mean you should fade them? Not necessarily.  Public plays win too.  If one was to bet plays receiving 75%-80% of incoming bets then he would win around 49% of the time! Hope this helps explain what Vegas is trying to achieve!      
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#12
Posted: 10/11/2012 8:08:21 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by AAvKKmbfn:

Not sure if this is what you are asking but Ill try and answer as best I can.  All Vegas wants is 50% monetary value on each side. Around 85% of individual side bets are coming in on West Virginia and 60% of individual ML bets are also on West Virginia.  Even though only around 15% of individual bets are on Texas Tech, Vegas has an even amount of money on each side.  The line did go down 1 point since the line opened, but that was not because more individual bets were on West Virginia but because more money from the 15% of individual spread bets and the 40% of individual ML bets on Texas Tech outweighed the amount of money coming in on West Virginia.  Another reason for a line move though could be an injury which one would need to look out for.  If both sides receive an equal amount of money then Vegas wins (10% juice).  Vegas sets a line to try and get an equal amount of money on each side. Vegas does not care that 85% of incoming bets are on West Virginia but do care about achieving a monetary value of 50% on each side. The amount of incoming bets on West Virginia says its a public play and the initial 1 point drop in the line would indicate Vegas would like some more action on West Virginia money wise, but does that mean you should fade them? Not necessarily.  Public plays win too.  If one was to bet plays receiving 75%-80% of incoming bets then he would win around 49% of the time! Hope this helps explain what Vegas is trying to achieve!      

Thanks for all that info....but I think I got that.  That's why I said their goal was to attain 50/50.  I meant money, not # of bettors.  Vegas doesn't care how many people wager, unless it means more $$ bet.
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#13
Posted: 10/11/2012 8:09:56 AM
I was actually wanting jtoler to explain how they are begging for TT $$ with that opening line...gonna be a good one, I think.
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#14
Posted: 10/11/2012 9:28:10 AM
making people outthink themselves

just like last week.  How can WVA be +7 at Texas?  Line should be pickem!  and that was right.  but people here piled on Texas and the WVA cover was never in doubt

WVA and over again...TTech will not stop WVA and they cant outscore them.

WVA will trip against OU, KSt or OKST. 
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#15
Posted: 10/11/2012 12:01:46 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by AAvKKmbfn:

Not sure if this is what you are asking but Ill try and answer as best I can.  All Vegas wants is 50% monetary value on each side. Around 85% of individual side bets are coming in on West Virginia and 60% of individual ML bets are also on West Virginia.  Even though only around 15% of individual bets are on Texas Tech, Vegas has an even amount of money on each side.  The line did go down 1 point since the line opened, but that was not because more individual bets were on West Virginia but because more money from the 15% of individual spread bets and the 40% of individual ML bets on Texas Tech outweighed the amount of money coming in on West Virginia.  Another reason for a line move though could be an injury which one would need to look out for.  If both sides receive an equal amount of money then Vegas wins (10% juice).  Vegas sets a line to try and get an equal amount of money on each side. Vegas does not care that 85% of incoming bets are on West Virginia but do care about achieving a monetary value of 50% on each side. The amount of incoming bets on West Virginia says its a public play and the initial 1 point drop in the line would indicate Vegas would like some more action on West Virginia money wise, but does that mean you should fade them? Not necessarily.  Public plays win too.  If one was to bet plays receiving 75%-80% of incoming bets then he would win around 49% of the time! Hope this helps explain what Vegas is trying to achieve!      

 

They may try, but its about impossible to get 50/50 action on some these games.

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#16
Posted: 10/11/2012 12:06:10 PM
The books don't necessarily want 50/50 action, they want to maximize profits.  If they feel they can do that with an 80/20 spread, they will have an 80/20 spread on a game.  And the point spread is only one factor - you also have ML and teasers to factor in.
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#17
Posted: 10/11/2012 12:35:21 PM
TT #2 rated D overall, #1 against the pass vs #3 overall WVU Offense
something has to give
TT #15 rated Offense
*WVU has no D
 #104 ranked
take the points. TT WILL score pts and their D may win this


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#18
Posted: 10/11/2012 12:51:26 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Zoot:

TT #2 rated D overall, #1 against the pass vs #3 overall WVU Offense
something has to give
TT #15 rated Offense
*WVU has no D
 #104 ranked
take the points. TT WILL score pts and their D may win this



I agree.  And yes Thorpe, that's what I was trying to show...Vegas NEVER wanted 50/50 to begin with.  Otherwise it opens where they can cross 7 easily.
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#19
Posted: 10/11/2012 1:03:40 PM
Our magic numbers for a red raider win are 5 and 2... 5 stops in the game and fewer than 2 turnovers... We accomplish both and we win. Die hard as they get for my red raiders going to be a tough game but the difference against OU last week was the 2 weeks they had to prepare for our offense... OU is killer coming off a bye week, Tubbs badly needs a win or we won't win another game this season save for Kansas. OU played their best game of the season against us and anybody who saw ISU beat tcu knows that our win in Ames was an impressive win.
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#20
Posted: 10/11/2012 1:34:06 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by hawgpix:


I agree.  And yes Thorpe, that's what I was trying to show...Vegas NEVER wanted 50/50 to begin with.  Otherwise it opens where they can cross 7 easily.

Why would Vegas expect money to come in on WVU?  They've only covered one of their last four games.  I imagine the oddsmakers are as surprised by the reaction as I am.

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#21
Posted: 10/11/2012 1:56:36 PM

Covers' numbers be damned, I'm seeing a lot more people on TT than WVA.

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#22
Posted: 10/11/2012 5:34:39 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by crocnzeeba:

Covers' numbers be damned, I'm seeing a lot more people on TT than WVA.


All I hear is WV...
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#23
Posted: 10/11/2012 6:23:37 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by hawgpix:


I've always been under the assumption the lines were set to achieve 50/50 action on each game.  Not actually for a 50/50 result, as a lot of people think.  Can you enlighten me further?  Thanks for info.

That depends......on if the fix is in.

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#24
Posted: 10/11/2012 6:52:22 PM
Vegas ain't begging for wvu money. This line is perfect. 4.5 is an illusion to ttech better "wow I get more than a field goal and a half point". It's hard to pick this game. As a handicapper I'm perplexed. Do i rock wvu money line?  This is hard one. Hence a good line. Then after the game we can say. "damn wvu was an easy play". Lol

Wvu 44 t tech 33

They actually are begging and wanting non wvu money here. To even it out

And the computer algorithim used to set lines is spitting out a wvu win here but closer than people think. 
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#25
Posted: 10/11/2012 7:17:07 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by thorpe:

The books don't necessarily want 50/50 action, they want to maximize profits.  If they feel they can do that with an 80/20 spread, they will have an 80/20 spread on a game.  And the point spread is only one factor - you also have ML and teasers to factor in.

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