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Author: [College Football] Topic: wmp week 6 picks( first time poster)
wmptrauma send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
wmptrauma
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#1
Posted: 10/3/2012 11:21:25 AM
First time poster here but been lurking for a year or so. I started betting c.f.b. 5 years ago and my first 2 years I got slaughtered. I watch a ridiculous amount of football, and thought I knew more then anyone else. My 3rd year I started developing a system based on math, and last year had success. I try to achieve an edge in the only way I see possible and thats in skewed public perception. I use my own power rankings, and averages from 40 different computer sims to identify where public perception is wrong and only bet when my rankings and the computer sims are overwhelmingly in my favor. I then isolate those games and look at trends, and other non- math factors. I unit=50$ and I only bet 1 or 2 units
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wmptrauma
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#2
Posted: 10/3/2012 11:34:40 AM
- C. Michigan at Toledo (-10)   2u
 I have this game capped at -14 and the comp. averages have it 17.6 and no lower then 12.5. I think we get a great value here as public perception is skewed based on c. Michigan's game vs Iowa. Fav. (4-1) Toledo vs. M.A.C. (4-0) Home team in series (4-1). My concern would be C. Michigan's offense being better then I think it actually is

- Kansas at Kansas St. (-24)  1u
I have this game capped at -30 with aver. comp. sims at -28. K St. has been a cash cow for me and Snyder has made a habit of running it up on Kansas. Favorite in series (9-3) K-St. (4-1) h-h

- New Mexico St. (+10.5) at Idaho  1u
I hate betting bad teams but I have this game capped at Idaho (-4.5) and the comp. averages show -2.3. The road team (4-0) N.M. St. (3-7) overall. Who s idaho to be laying D.D to anyone even an awful N.m. st. team

- Washington St. at Oregon St. (16.5) 2u
I had to run my rankings 3 times for this one as I thought i was messing up. I have this at Oregon St. -26 and the comp. averages have it at -21.3. Oregon st. is projected to outgain wash. st. by 100 yds. Wash. (0-3-1) on road. Oregon St. (4-0-10 overall Nd (3-0-1) in conference games. the road team is (5-1)


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wmptrauma send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
wmptrauma
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#3
Posted: 10/3/2012 11:44:46 AM
-Kent (-3) at East, Michigan  1u
More of a feel bet. I have this capped at -4.5 but thats with a +3 for home field which I'm not sure applies here. The comp. average this at -6.7. E. michigan can't throw and will be forced to. They also don't stop the run effectively and I believe Kent will chew them up on the ground. Kent projects to 100 more yards in this game and projects to +1.5 on turnovers. Favorite in series (4-1) Kent (4-0) as fav. overall

- Oklahoma at. Texas Tech (+5)  1u
I feel the rankings could be slightly off this game and that both teams may be slightly over rated. I have this capped at T.T. -2 and the comp. have this at T.T. -2.5 however their is a lot of variation with this one. Home team (5-1) in series and I like betting against road favorites coming off byes(the numbers back me up)

I will be adding 2 teasers later on. I almost always tease the dog back and I play 6 pt. even money 2 team teasers where ties push. Teasers can be sucker bets but I have had success with them when applied properly
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helmstetter21 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
helmstetter21
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#4
Posted: 10/3/2012 12:06:10 PM
Welcome....love some of your picks!
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wmptrauma send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
wmptrauma
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#5
Posted: 10/3/2012 12:09:34 PM
One addition +teases

- U.C.L.A. (-2.5) at California  1u
This one smells like garbage but so didnt last week's Cal game. I have it capped at -8 and the computers at 5.5. U.C.L.A. projects to outgain Cal. by 100 yds. U.C.L.A. as road fav. (5-0)  Cal. on grass (0-5). Home team (4-1)

- Michigan at Purdue (+9)/ N.Texas (+17) at Houston- 6 pt. tease 1u
I have Mich. -1.5 and computers at Pur. -1. Home team h-h (4-1) Mich. (1-3-1) overall /  I have N. Texas capped at +4  and the comp. at +6. I feel Houston is still over-rated by public. N. Texas projects +1 on turnovers

- Iowa St (+!7.5) at T.C.U./ Northwestern (+9) at Penn. St. 6pt.tease 1u
I have Iowa st. capped at +9.5 and the comp. at +8. Iowa st. as road dog (4-0) and (3-1-1) overall / I have  N. western capped at -1 and the comp. has it -1 with variations between The #5. N. western as dog of .5-3 (4-0). Penn st. (4-0) overall and the favorite h-h (4-0)
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wmptrauma send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
wmptrauma
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#6
Posted: 10/3/2012 12:13:54 PM
Overall card

- Toledo -10.5
- Kansas St. -24
- N.Mexico St. (+10.5)
- U.C.L.A. (-2.5)
- Texas Tech (+5)
- Oregon St. (-16.5)
- Kent St. (-3)
- Purdue (+9)/ N.Texas (+17) 6 pt. teaser
- N.Western (+9) / Iowa St. (+17.5) 6 pt. teaser

I also lean Georgia/ S. Carolina under 55. Just a feel . I don't play totals often
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Michfan15 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
Michfan15
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              Antilles
#7
Posted: 10/21/2012 9:50:20 PM
no updates? 
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wmptrauma send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
wmptrauma
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#8
Posted: 10/21/2012 10:30:42 PM
5-5 week 7
 
6-2 week 8 but didn't post since I was in the lovely country of Ireland on my honeymoon.

week 8 results

- San Jose st. -13 - 2u -  win
- Ball st - 3 - 2u -win
- Louisiana Tech - 31 - 1 u- win
- Oregon st - 10.5 - 1u - win
- Wisconsin - 17 - 1u - win
- S. Florida  +6 -  win
- Temple +4.5 - loss
-  M. Tenn. St.  +19 - loss

My only regret was not completely loading up on San Jose St. when their q.b. was ruled out before the game.
-
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ChipsNVouchers send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Mandalay Bay |
ChipsNVouchers
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#9
Posted: 10/21/2012 10:36:12 PM
I look forward to your plays this week. Welcome to the married life- it's really a good thing!
Posted using a mobile device.
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wmptrauma send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
wmptrauma
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#10
Posted: 10/21/2012 10:39:35 PM
At first glance this card does nothing for me compared to last week which I loved. I will spend tomorrow afternoon running numbers and see what I come up with
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