Week 6 CFB Plays

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Author: [College Football] Topic: Week 6 CFB Plays
DAnewguy PM DAnewguy
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Posted: 10/1/2012 5:41:45 PM
n texas +12...sniped..
JFen31 PM JFen31
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Posted: 10/1/2012 5:48:40 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by mariner24:

jfen can i pick your brain on pitt? their QB is dreadful , whats your angle on this particular game?


Couple things. Riccio already addressed it, but Sunseri is not nearly as bad as this board depicts him. Sure, he looked awful against Cincinnati in a primetime national TV spot, but that Cincinnati defense is everything Syracuse is not: fast, physical, and opportunistic. I've watched Tino over his whole career - when given time to sit back and read the defense, he's a solid quarterback.

The coaching staff came up with a revolutionary idea prior to the VA Tech game. They called it "running the football," and with an O-line averaging 325 pounds and an all-conference tailback it is quite a brilliant strategy.

Pitt has absolutely dominated this series with seven wins in a row by something like 16 PPG. Carrier Dome is not an intimidating place and I like Pitt's sizeable talent/speed advantage indoors on the turf.



JFen31 PM JFen31
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Posted: 10/1/2012 5:55:11 PM
USC @ Utah +14 (1 unit)

Injuries on both sides, but Khaled Holmes? Yikes. See article below. Also, USC has no depth -> going into altitude from SoCal = fatigue. I'll be on the money line here, too.

http://espn.go.com/blog/pac12/post/_/id/45743/utah-usc-licking-wounds-before-meeting-next-week
JFen31 PM JFen31
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Posted: 10/1/2012 5:57:14 PM
Utah State +14/Texas PK -120 (1 unit)
miniman44444 PM miniman44444
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Posted: 10/1/2012 6:18:15 PM
definitely like north texas they impress me gl bro
JFen31 PM JFen31
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Posted: 10/1/2012 7:07:40 PM
Boston College @ Army Over 57.5 (1 unit)
riccio14 PM riccio14
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Posted: 10/1/2012 8:56:13 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by JFen31:



Couple things. Riccio already addressed it, but Sunseri is not nearly as bad as this board depicts him. Sure, he looked awful against Cincinnati in a primetime national TV spot, but that Cincinnati defense is everything Syracuse is not: fast, physical, and opportunistic. I've watched Tino over his whole career - when given time to sit back and read the defense, he's a solid quarterback.

The coaching staff came up with a revolutionary idea prior to the VA Tech game. They called it "running the football," and with an O-line averaging 325 pounds and an all-conference tailback it is quite a brilliant strategy.

Pitt has absolutely dominated this series with seven wins in a row by something like 16 PPG. Carrier Dome is not an intimidating place and I like Pitt's sizeable talent/speed advantage indoors on the turf.





Also worth noting that Pitt is one of only 4 teams that rank in the
top 30 nationally in both total O and D: Texas Tech (8th O/1st D), FSU (9th/3rd), OU (25th/12th), Pitt (29th/28th)

 
Sampsonite PM Sampsonite
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Posted: 10/1/2012 11:16:58 PM
Love reading your insight JFen! 
165yds PM 165yds
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Posted: 10/2/2012 12:24:15 AM
Where's the best spot of the week on your card?  
JFen31 PM JFen31
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Posted: 10/2/2012 12:28:33 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by 165yds:

Where's the best spot of the week on your card?  


I think the best pure spot is Southern Miss with Boise kicking off at 9:00 A.M. and a shitload of travel. So hard to pull the trigger, though. Also think Florida State and West Virginia are in bad spots.
austintx11 PM austintx11
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Posted: 10/2/2012 12:42:57 AM
jfen, im gonna bounce some ideas off you...let me know what you think.

Cal +3 - good spot imo
Texas -6.5/u75 - no one would play a wvu under, but this is baylors defense.
Arkansas +10 - they are bound to cover a game? auburn's defense scares no one.
Nebraska +3.5 - no reason, just a guess lol
Geo/SC u57 - really like this one, especially after the high scoring game vs tenn.
Penn St -3 - NW has played no one.

I sort of agree on NC St, but don't you think they are a bit soft defensively? Compare to USF? I just remember Tennessee having success vs this team and I think FSU could as well. maybe a backdoor....

And for a long shot what about So Miss ML? I havent been impressed with boise at all. They forced one punt vs mich st, they squeaked out vs byu without scoring an offensive point, let new mex come back...i've just said since the first game that boise isn't going undefeated, maybe for a unit or half a unit....

Just some thoughts man, let me know what you're thinking.


JFen31 PM JFen31
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Posted: 10/2/2012 1:39:01 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by austintx11:

jfen, im gonna bounce some ideas off you...let me know what you think.

Cal +3 - good spot imo
Texas -6.5/u75 - no one would play a wvu under, but this is baylors defense.
Arkansas +10 - they are bound to cover a game? auburn's defense scares no one.
Nebraska +3.5 - no reason, just a guess lol
Geo/SC u57 - really like this one, especially after the high scoring game vs tenn.
Penn St -3 - NW has played no one.

I sort of agree on NC St, but don't you think they are a bit soft defensively? Compare to USF? I just remember Tennessee having success vs this team and I think FSU could as well. maybe a backdoor....

And for a long shot what about So Miss ML? I havent been impressed with boise at all. They forced one punt vs mich st, they squeaked out vs byu without scoring an offensive point, let new mex come back...i've just said since the first game that boise isn't going undefeated, maybe for a unit or half a unit....

Just some thoughts man, let me know what you're thinking.




-If there's a time for Cal to play up its capability, this is it. Then again, it's Cal, the most consistently underachieving team in college football. Still not sold on UCLA as anything more than a mid-pack team. Tough call.

-I'm definitely using Texas PK in two different teasers and may lay the -6/-6.5 as well. So many things to like about the Horns here. WVU has not seen this type of elite defensive talent since the LSU game last September. Horns' balanced offense will control clock and gash the inexperienced 'Neers defense.

-Can't touch the Ark/Auburn game. Hate the Tigers, but Arkansas is so mentally fragile that one bad break seems to lead to complete collapse. Probably the biggest stay-away game on the whole card for me.

-Even teams in Columbus. Both coming off of key wins in revenge spots from last year. I'd rather have the points in what is probably a close game either way but Nebraska expended a ton of energy in the comeback late Saturday night.

-Like the UGA/USC under. This would have been about 49-50 two weeks ago. Tremendous line value due to recent results.

-I'm conflicted on Northwestern-PSU. The Nittany Lions have been my personal cash cow but they've drawn a bunch of favorable matchups against teams who can't throw the ball. The PSU front seven is really, really good, but the secondary is below-average. Definitely some concern about Colter having a big day (a la Tettleton from Ohio). Can't trust the PSU kicking game, either. Interesting game but I won't be playing it.


JFen31 PM JFen31
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Posted: 10/2/2012 1:42:21 AM
Forgot a few...

NC State is a gut play. Before the season started I pegged this as the most dangerous road game for FSU. Obviously NC State has underperformed but motivation could not be any higher for the 'Pack. FSU playing a consecutive road game after a physical battle with a rugged USF squad.

No reason not to take a stab at the Southern Miss ML. Crazy tough spot for Boise with travel from New Mexico, back to Boise, and now all the way across the country to Biloxi for a 10 A.M. kickoff.
TurnstoneMoney PM TurnstoneMoney
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Posted: 10/2/2012 12:27:50 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by JFen31:



Couple things. Riccio already addressed it, but Sunseri is not nearly as bad as this board depicts him. Sure, he looked awful against Cincinnati in a primetime national TV spot, but that Cincinnati defense is everything Syracuse is not: fast, physical, and opportunistic. I've watched Tino over his whole career - when given time to sit back and read the defense, he's a solid quarterback.

The coaching staff came up with a revolutionary idea prior to the VA Tech game. They called it "running the football," and with an O-line averaging 325 pounds and an all-conference tailback it is quite a brilliant strategy.

Pitt has absolutely dominated this series with seven wins in a row by something like 16 PPG. Carrier Dome is not an intimidating place and I like Pitt's sizeable talent/speed advantage indoors on the turf.





+1

Spot on. I've been to 20+ games in the Carrier dome and the home field is non existent. A ton of students don't even go.

And this Pitt running game is beastly. Rushel Shell is fresh and him and Ray Graham can spell each other so well. These guys have been giving Tino all day. It's down to 2 and I'll be all over it.

Really surprised to not see you on PSU, like you said, money all year but I understand your reasoning. I probably will buy to 2.5.

And only 11 days until CBB officially starts. 
BluejayBuckets PM BluejayBuckets
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Posted: 10/2/2012 12:29:41 PM
BOL this weekend!
DoubleUp4Life PM DoubleUp4Life
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Posted: 10/2/2012 12:36:53 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by JFen31:

Week 6 Current Card
USC @ Utah +12 (1 unit)
Pittsburgh -2.5 @ Syracuse (1 unit)
Iowa State +14.5 @ TCU (1 unit)

Georgia Tech +10 @ Clemson (1 unit)
UCONN +10 @ Rutgers (1 unit)
Florida State @ NC State +14 (1 unit)
North Texas +10.5 @ Houston (1 unit)



only going to be on North Texas out of these...

Clemson is my 1st mortgage wager of the season , But who Knows ??

UCONN play also makes sense ... might be a 1 score game either way ....


BEST Of Luck Brother ... May u sweep the Board 


Take a Look at Duke !!
yagobi21 PM yagobi21
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Posted: 10/2/2012 12:40:13 PM
Really like that Utah play. How did you get ISU +14.5. They are at 11 on my book :(
Louis_IV PM Louis_IV
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Posted: 10/2/2012 1:20:00 PM
good luck this week
Magic_Steam PM Magic_Steam
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Posted: 10/2/2012 1:58:42 PM

JFen,

Thanks in advance for posting your plays each week. You're insight is phenomenal.

After looking over the lines for this weeks games, I just wanted to get your thoughts on something...the answer may be very simple, but I figured you would know nonetheless..

Can you explain why the line in the Tulsa @ Marshall game swung 16pts in favor of Tulsa? Opened at Marshall -13/ Currently Tulsa -3

Thanks

syracusejoe PM syracusejoe
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Posted: 10/2/2012 4:01:30 PM
jfen be careful with your pitt pick.  Marrone tends to have his teams very well prepared when he has time during the season.  2 examples are the WV beating last year and kansas st bowl game.  Both games SU did not have the talent to compete with these teams.  I agree Pitt is much better than cuse and the home field will not mean much,  but if this is a close game the dome could become a factor in the 2nd half.  I personally think Nassib sucks but he may have a big game here.  SU has talent on offense and just got back there left tackle who has been injured the whole season.
shakey12381 PM shakey12381
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Posted: 10/2/2012 7:15:02 PM
bc over is money my friend gl on your plays
RJSizzle PM RJSizzle
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Posted: 10/2/2012 7:22:12 PM
While I hit USM last week, dont really feel it this week for them. 

That team has played a darn of a schedule. Think this game is a serious rut for them. 

GL JF. 

MIKECOUU78 PM MIKECOUU78
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Posted: 10/2/2012 10:39:51 PM
usmabama PM usmabama
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Posted: 10/2/2012 11:26:58 PM
BOL...with you on Utah +14.5
JFen31 PM JFen31
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Posted: 10/2/2012 11:52:52 PM
Thank you, gentlemen. Good luck to all of you as well.




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