Sat 9/29 NJPORKY's 2H NCAA System Plays

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Author: [Penalty Box] Topic: Sat 9/29 NJPORKY's 2H NCAA System Plays
CatsofNova PM CatsofNova
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quote#951
Posted: 9/30/2012 12:19:03 AM
Beavers looking liking Wisky coming out flat in the 2H
liontri PM liontri
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quote#952
Posted: 9/30/2012 12:19:27 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by NJPorky:

 

Oregon St @ Arizona
Full game odds were Arizona -3 and 58
At the half, 17-7 Oregon St
2H lines should be Arizona -13 and 34
2H lines are Arizona -3 and 28
Thus we have
Oregon St +3 2H as a play

I don't understand this system of yours. Whole game, Arizona favoured 3; how do you expect them to be favour 13 for second half? I have never seen a line like that for any sports. If you said the line should be 5 or 6, then I could understand where you're coming from. But, 13?
Ducati_sj PM Ducati_sj
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quote#953
Posted: 9/30/2012 12:19:28 AM
Porky: sorry i look at a wrong team. i look at SDSU @ Freshno St , hahah.  Btw, juice is -130 is too much.  i have juice only -105.  wanna get hook up, let me know.
BigWaveDave PM BigWaveDave
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quote#954
Posted: 9/30/2012 12:21:02 AM
This always seems to happen to any system when it attracts too much attention.  You don't think the books read these forums??
NJPorky PM NJPorky
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quote#955
Posted: 9/30/2012 12:22:08 AM
less than 4 minutes in TD San Diego ST...
Fevernova PM Fevernova
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quote#956
Posted: 9/30/2012 12:22:35 AM
stop overthinking the points, vegas super simulation pc is willing to set 2h at 30+, someone there also approved it, the most likely simulated scenario is a number around that spread. It may hit it may not, just because something hit the over at ht doesnt mean the rest will be scoreless, nor does it mean it will continue, its a gamble, pick a side and enjoy the ride. no point 2nd guess porky's selection.


ManassaMauler PM ManassaMauler
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quote#957
Posted: 9/30/2012 12:23:19 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by kake7:


Yey Manass how's your knee ?? good to see U around!
hey man! thanks for asking...I kept it wrapped for a couple of weeks and just walked for a couple more weeks.......so far, so good. The less knives in my body, the better.
NJPorky PM NJPorky
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quote#958
Posted: 9/30/2012 12:23:50 AM
I'm not paying -130 juice...people who are haating trying to say the juice is kilkling you with all these plays and I was just making a point even if you were paying ridiculous juice you still profit...
ManassaMauler PM ManassaMauler
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quote#959
Posted: 9/30/2012 12:23:56 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by NJPorky:

less than 4 minutes in TD San Diego ST...
Tailed you on the over, and both TT over for 1K a piece...let's hope you're right
giancarlo12 PM giancarlo12
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quote#960
Posted: 9/30/2012 12:24:12 AM
@liontri. arizona is -3 to win the game. they need to score 13 pts or more in 2nd half to cover -3, so -13 2nd half is correct. 
ManassaMauler PM ManassaMauler
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quote#961
Posted: 9/30/2012 12:24:36 AM
Anyone have a link to the Fresno St. game?
ManassaMauler PM ManassaMauler
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quote#962
Posted: 9/30/2012 12:25:09 AM
capdatazz PM capdatazz
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quote#963
Posted: 9/30/2012 12:25:19 AM
Making a pick based on a "system" or "simulations" is flat out retarded.  I had az big 2nd half based on the fact they're at home and been moving the ball really well.  Also when teams are up or down by a certain margin the play calling becomes more or less aggressive.  For az to lose by More then 10 points at home to an equally matched team is not very likely.  
jaime2309 PM jaime2309
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quote#964
Posted: 9/30/2012 12:26:19 AM
Lol
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SYSTEM PM SYSTEM
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quote#965
Posted: 9/30/2012 12:26:23 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BigWaveDave:

This always seems to happen to any system when it attracts too much attention.  You don't think the books read these forums??

You think the lines have been different than what they would have been because of this system?? 
DJLeft_unheard PM DJLeft_unheard
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quote#966
Posted: 9/30/2012 12:26:24 AM
Anything for Oregon wash.
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jaime2309 PM jaime2309
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quote#967
Posted: 9/30/2012 12:27:22 AM
I doubt books change lines cause a thread has 39 pages lmao
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NJPorky PM NJPorky
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quote#968
Posted: 9/30/2012 12:27:44 AM
Oregon @ Washington St
Full game odds were Oregon -31 and 73
At the half, 23-19 regon
2H lines should be Oregon -27 and 31
2H lines areOregon -14 and 35.5
Thus we have
Washington St +14 2H as a play
ManassaMauler PM ManassaMauler
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quote#969
Posted: 9/30/2012 12:28:19 AM
ManassaMauler PM ManassaMauler
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quote#970
Posted: 9/30/2012 12:28:29 AM
tim562 PM tim562
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quote#971
Posted: 9/30/2012 12:29:13 AM
Your system suck
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liontri PM liontri
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quote#972
Posted: 9/30/2012 12:29:36 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by giancarlo12:

@liontri. arizona is -3 to win the game. they need to score 13 pts or more in 2nd half to cover -3, so -13 2nd half is correct. 
I understand that completely, mate. But, if a team is favoured by 3, and are behind at half time, not a single book will make that team a 13 points favourite. But, what do I know, right? They might win when favoured by 3 and lost if favoured by 13?
SYSTEM PM SYSTEM
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quote#973
Posted: 9/30/2012 12:29:48 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by jaime2309:

I doubt books change lines cause a thread has 39 pages lmao

Fevernova PM Fevernova
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quote#974
Posted: 9/30/2012 12:30:16 AM
Thanks Porky (and others who filled in), been an interesting day, looking forward to doing this again tomorrow

cheers!

TonySonnn PM TonySonnn
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quote#975
Posted: 9/30/2012 12:30:25 AM
Thanks Porky! I will see you tomorrow!

BOL to all!
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