Week 5 ideas....

Just a few ideas regarding games I (considered).....
    *bet most in some form /fashion...lines moving of course...number given is where I bet it or saw it last...(eg. actually bet N Caro at 24)....  




TOP PLAYS
 *none


ONE UNIT PLAYS

N Carolina -27
NC St +3
Tenn +14
Texas -2'
Duke +3
E Caro -4
Ohio St +3
Texas A&M -13'

smaller

TCU -16'
USF +17
BCollege 1H
Toledo +1'
N Illinois -10
Nevada/Tx St OVER 63


might work...

Iowa St +3
Cinn +7
Wisky +11'
Ohio St +10 / UNDER 49



3:30 PM     (125)  IDAHO    AT     (126)  N CAROLINA    -27.0    62.0

     *Vandals may look like the play here as UNC has started slow...HC Fedora's 1st year.....BUT...Vandals off TOUGH OT loss to Wyoming...before that road games at LSU and Bowling Green.....now travel cross country once again
UNC getting healthy (QB/RB have been hurt)....have an excellent OL (8/10 ...93 starts) and Fedora will want to show off his offense to home crowd...esp with Hokies on deck
note > Vandal QB Blackman should play hurt (knee)...No shock if Idaho mails this one in

   
7:50 PM     (147)  TEXAS    AT     (148)  OKLAHOMA ST    +1.5    65

    * OSU couldn't move it on Horns LY...2/5 OL are back led by rFR Walsh (starter Lunt likely out)...doesn't make sense they roll over Horn D now...as they lose 2 AA OL + Blackmon and Weeden...Texas O with a healthy stable of RB's should get it done vs a OSU D that gave up 32 FD and 500 yards to Zona...Both off bye...OSU with another bye next...Texas with WV...Horns top tackler LB Hicks is very doubtful

3:30 PM     (155)  TENNESSEE    AT     (156)  GEORGIA    -13.5    57.5

    * Vols off Akron with a bye on deck...Dawgs in 3rd straight HG (0-3 ATS) with huge game with S Carolina next...Tenn has the talent to keep this close 


12:00 PM     (169)  NC STATE    AT     (170)  MIAMI    -3.0    57.0

    *Pack off S Alabama and the Citadel (Fla St next)...Canes off huge (physical) upset win over Ga Tech...with Notre Dame on deck
NCSt HC O'Brien great in this role...21-8 ATS as an ACC dog.... with 15 outright upsets


3:30 PM     (153)  OHIO ST    AT     (154)  MICHIGAN ST    -3.0    42.0

     *Despite what the last few weeks suggest....Buckeyes prob the better overall team with the much better QB...and should have both RB's available for 1st time TY...Bucks have won 6 of 7 here...and have won 22 of 27 Big 10 road games (covered 19 + 1 push)...Sparty 10-17-1 ATS at home...16-12 SU.....UNDER....maybe better


12:20 PM     (149)  ARKANSAS    AT     (150)  TEXAS A&M    -14.0

    * Hogs in freefall...destroyed by Bama...whipped by Rutgers and ULAMON..farted around with Jax St.....all at home...and have a road game with Auburn on deck...Aggs (with very fortunate La Tech postponement)....off S Caro St...with at Ole Miss next...have struggled to get respect and should take full advantage here
 

12:30 PM     (131)  DUKE    AT     (132)  WAKE FOREST    -2.5    60.0

     *WF has owned Duke in the past...but is off tough games with Army (yes)...Fla St and N Carolina with road game at Maryland next...Duke only Memphis and NC Central with Virg next...Wake D looks down this year...Duke with the better QB...the better offense and ST..and improved D (Stanford couldn't run) should get the win here   

7:00 PM     (167)  UTEP    AT     (168)  E CAROLINA    -4.5    52.0

    *UTEP has played well yes...EC has not ....but Miners off road trip to Wisky (plus off tough game with OU...and at Ole Miss)
now travel 1900 miles or so to a rowdy Dowdy-Ficklen stadium (EC 13-6 ATS as HF)....for a night game...Miners whipped a beat up EC LY....look for Pirates to get it back together here
     note>  UTEP top defender DB Spencer (leading tackler + resp for 5 TO's so far....is OFY


  7:00 PM     (137)  TCU    AT     (138)  SMU    +17.0    55.5    

    *maybe too many points...but Frogs have not played to Patterson's standards....and struggle to get notice in the Cowboy dominated market....having lost to Ponies LY...look for Frogs to beat up a really bad SMU team (off bye with UTEP next)
    note > Patterson super pissed at June Jones for comments made LY...supposedly things are patched up...but you can bet he wants to beat the hell out of SMU


6:00 PM     (171)  FLORIDA ST    AT     (172)  S FLORIDA    +17.0    55.0

    *spot play that presents decent value also....Fla St off HUGE win with road game at NCSt next....at 17 pts you're saying Criminoles are almost as good as Bama...and the same as LSU....they may be but don't have the resume just yet...USF off Ball St with Temple next...usually gets up for these...Skip career wise great dog


2:00 PM     (175)  NEVADA    AT     (176)  TEXAS ST    +19.0    64.0

      *Nevada off road trip to Hawaii (W 69-24)...with Wyoming next...and may not be totally focused on the Bobcats (off SFA > allowed 36 FD)....Nevada should move it with ease...and D (allows 5.2/rush) should give up plenty too to Bobcats > who can run


7:00 PM     (173)  TOLEDO    AT     (174)  W MICHIGAN    PK    57.5

      *WM QB Carder is OUT....but b/u (Van Tubbergen) can play....Rockets look like the better team to me
WM off huge (bigger than you might think) win over UConn....Toledo (beat up)...but only off Coastal Carolina...
** Toledo should win but don't like betting against...the team WITH the injured KEY player...so might back off Rockets here



3:30 PM     (117)  CLEMSON    AT     (118)  BOSTON COLLEGE    +9.5    61.0

     *this line now 7 or so...so maybe even becomes a play the other way?....
Clemson off huge road loss with Ga Tech on deck....BC off a bye with only Army...Although Clemson not a strong bounceback team (3-6 ATS off loss)....BC has only covered 4 of last 15 home games...
     NOTE > Clemson super WR Watkins is out again....(illness)....BC 1H is maybe the way to go...> if they don't start strong they most likely won't come back anyway


3:30 PM     (139)  C MICHIGAN    AT     (140)  N ILLINOIS    -11.5    58.5

     *CM off huge win over Iowa...giving us some value here (should be 17-18 or so)...CM actually won LY so NI with revenge angle too....Huskies have won 17 home games in a row...Chips have just covered 2 of their last 16 games < damn


3:30 PM     (107)  CINCINNATI    VS     (108)  VIRGINIA TECH    -6.5    45.5

   *If Munchie doesn't screw it up...Bearcats can stay in this one....off a bye with only Miami,O on deck....Hokies tough on D as usual...but might struggle to move it here...and have N Caro on deck
    note > game at FedEx Field


8:00 PM     (181)  WISCONSIN    AT     (182)  NEBRASKA    -11.5    51.0

     *Nebraska has done nothing...I look for Wisky to keep this one close...but without knowing the availability of RB Ball...maybe pass


7:00 PM     (115)  TEXAS TECH    AT     (116)  IOWA ST    +3.0    59.5

    *not sure what Tech has done (beat up NW St...New Mexico...and Texas St) to warrant being favored here over Iowa St ....tough at home with wins over Tulsa and Iowa....Hawkeyes maybe should be fav by 3 or so.....both off byes...but Tech with revenge angle (lost LY 41-7)...ISU nice value play



BOL boys...........

  *favorites are 64-84 ATS...OVER is 75-73
      
should say ....WEEK 5 favorites......

Great stuff!!

Awesome read. Looks like you would recommend a Nev/TSU Over play. I think Nev puts up 48+ and see no reason they dont give up 20+

 

Great thread

thanks for all the time you put into this and for sharing  

good luck with your picks, BA     

So weird going on at TCU 

Book,   I just put a unit on Tcu -15. I had them circled and two check marks by them. Your endorsement made me go ahead to do the bet I wanted to do anyway.

BA - good stuff.  I've got similar views/opinions on a lot of these games.  Let's win some

GL