week 4

5-3 last week
15-10 total

Had a solid week last week. I needed a couple days to figure out the week 4 plan. I thought teams like ND would be in a bounce back week and they ended up winning. Other games I want to bet don't even have a line yet. A perfect storm of "I don't know what the hell to do!"

So I took a couple days off and ended up with some quality junk teams.

Have to rush through the picks...Sorry. You'll have to wait for tonight to get the snarky write ups delivered with classic Central New York sarcasm.

Kent St @ UB UNDER 52

USF -10 bought 1/2 point
@ Ball State

UAB
@ Ohio State -37

UTEP +17'
@ Wisky

Marshall @ Rice UNDER 69'

Kentucky
@ Florida -24

UCONN -1'
@ WMU

SJST +3'
@ SDST

Nevada
@ Hawai'i +9

With you on Hawaii +10. Home series. I believe they have a legit shot at an outright win. Good luck SLJ!

solid start man, maybe it's the new house..was thinking about that under in KSU-UB for some degenerate action tomorrow...Hawaii looking like a pretty one and thinking about trying OSU again, BOL LJ

 

Best of Luck This Week   

SLJ: Becareful about that Hawaii Game. Was there for Lamar. Hawaii QB loves to dink & dunk behind @ line of scrimmage or even behind on half of those passes.  He takes an extra second or two to let the ball go.  Not totally sold on Hawaii. Nevada might light UH up. Lost for season NT Samia. Bright & Stutzman (WR) are out. I dont think UH knows how to stop a TE yet (its been a weakness for years. Will be on national TV (game is 7:30PM PST, 1.5 hours before normal kickoffs in Hawaii.  Side note Nick Rolovich (UH former O Coach is now O Coord @ Nevada). I know Nevada's DB are god aweful & start is out for season. Might just wait for the over line (should be in the low 60's). GL this week. 

Great Work Brother 

Best of luck buddy, I think it's early to eat that much chalk on the Gators, but I would love for it to hit!

'Cuse

What do you think about your boys this week?

Keep up the good work.

What's the thinking on that Rice under?

Best of Luck 

Kent St @ UB - UNDER 52'
Pre season mags told us KSU would have the #1 D in the MAC. If that's the case I'll take them to keep the score low and the game boring.

USF - 10 (120)
USF was terrible last week how can you bet Daniels?  (I said it for you...) To be fair, they were in a bad spot coming off a long flight. Ball State has agreed to play the same defenders who have given up almost 500 yards a game so far this year; Daniels will be fine. Actually, the best thing for USF is to get away from their grumbling fan base.

UTEP +17'
Wisky has to score 17 for this bet to be in danger of losing. (I must admit, I'm considering taking over 48 as a bit of a hedge. That's a pretty low damn number, even for a team that's looking to start a QB controversy.)

Marshall @ Rice UNDER 69'
mws - to answer your question about this game: I make numbers for most games every week and a few are accurate. To post those numbers would be insane...because they average about 4 points off with no rhyme or reason. It's not a dart board approach but they are "gut lines" for the most part. I had Marshall 31' and Rice 27' for a total of 59. If I'm 10 off, I give the game a second look and bet if nothing screams that it's a mistake. So, basically, I bet the game because I didn't find anything that makes betting the under look like a horrible mistake.

FLorida -24
Death, taxes, and Florida over KU by 30. Kentucky co-eds are already lining up for their tetanus shots. Calipari and Petrino coaching at the same university! The wins! The slime! The slimy wins!

UCONN -1'
I love CT because they are an MMA fighter in pads and a helmut. The Pasqualoni way is defense, field position and special teams. Even typing that makes my eyes roll a little but CT has bought in. They will pound on your face for 60 minutes or until they get bored. Then, they'll stomp on you for having the nerve to bore them. hopefully, they come into Kalamazoo with intent to stomp.

Oh...and Whitmer throwing just one TD pass would be nice...just one? Please?

San Jose St +3'
About 20 years ago MTV played music. True. They had an awesome show called MTV Unplugged. Neil Young was interviewed and asked why did he decide to do that show. He said it's like a hay truck driving by. "You can either get on the hay truck or watch it pass by."

I think it's time to get on SJST instead of watching them pass by.

Hawai'i +9
Purely a situational play.

 

tinfoils - Lets go Hawai'i!

nostra - HA! The house is a good luck charm for sure. Actually, no longer house hunting has kept the stress where it belongs...game day! (Kidding or course.) If anyone allows Ohio St to score 60, it'll be UAB.

WISEGUY36 Thanks. Hope I'm not against you on any of these.

Whilz_Hea - That's a solid writeup, Whilz. Did not know about Rolovich. Also, not a fan of the horizontal passing offense because NEV just might INT a couple of those. I do accept that NEV is far more talented. It's a situational play. 

tiasman - You're Gators are fine this week. 

Turnstonemoney-

SatNightFever & Doubeup - I'll followup in a few minutes on Syr this week. There's a storm moving thru right now and I want to get this post down quick. Hopefully the storm is not foreshadowing how the game goes.

halofan

sportfreak 69 - GL this week

Nice week cuse and as nrmal, rock solid card.  Look at LSU...They should dominate Auburn by 35 points..  I do not think Auburn will even score unless on turnover.  Do not bet, jsut watch....It is my BIG play of the week. 

Really like Florida over Kentucky, but line has moved to 24.5. 

Keep up the great work  

gl this week syracuse

BIggdaddySHY - Watching TXAM whup up on SMU was fun last week. Hope the other plays you bet came through. I haven't seen LSU yet this year and don't have a good feel on what to do with them yet. They don't need luck this week, of course. 

shakey12381 - Thanks, skakey. GL this week.

Syracuse @ Minny - No bet, just observations...

One storyline that may not be getting any coverage about the Syr - Stony Brook game is that Stony Brook had two goal line stands vs the Syr offense and held. First time, Nassib's 4 yard pass was incomplete on 4th down. The second time on 4th down, Jerome Smith couldn't run it in from 1/2 yard out. So, Stony Brook held both times.

There's a couple built in excuses...Syr just ran a couple base offense plays, nothing deep in the playbook. Also, Stony Brook is on Long Island. I'm sure they're tired as hell of hearing that Syr is New York State's football team. So they had an extra bit of motivation.

Still...it's not good if you're Syr. Jerome Smith has got to be able to just run it up the middle for 1/2 yard on anyone except the the top 10 defenses in NCAAF.

So, I think Marrone and the coaches will be hammering home the point that they have to be tough this week. I expect Syr to be "up" for this game even though it's not a conference game. If Syr goes 1-3 out of conference, it's the worst case scenario come true. MN probably expected to go 3-1 out of conference so a loss won't kill them...

Maybe Gray can't go but who's this Max Shortell guy? A quick look at his stats tells me that he's a better passer than Grey. So better passer but won't be as mobile as Gray? Cuse will take that because they still stink vs mobile QB's.

Syr special teams is killing them this year. Syr could dominate the game. The offense could be great and the defense could be hitting everyone in the mouth. There could still be a special team mistake; some fluke punt that sails over the head of the punter to lose by 2. This unit makes too many mistakes.

I lean Syracuse because I think they bring more emotion into this game. If you're Minny, you have to go to Iowa next week. MN should think they can beat Iowa. Just get out of this game healthy and then get ready for Iowa. Syr has a bye next week then Plays Pitt on Friday, 10/5/12. It'd be nice to have some momentum going into that game. A 1-3 record ain't momentum.

Yeah honestly with this Syracuse team, I would have a hard time laying two points on the road against anyone. Minny or nothing from me.

TurnstoneMoney - Tough to back Cuse because of the mistakes. For all the discipline Marrone brings to the program, there must be fewer mistakes. I think we get a good performance from them this week. But...I'm not putting my money where my mouth is...

__________________________________________________
One more bet for the week and this might be it:

Louisiana Tech
@ Illinois -2'

I expect Scheelhause and the safties to be out. The Illinois defense played great vs WMU...good players and good coaching. The replacements at safety are fine.
The QB replacement is effective and that's all he'll need to be vs the LT defense.
Louisiana is not a one dimensional passing team. The air raid teams are at their best when the running game works. Illinois will shut down the run.
LT on defense...what defense?

________________________________________________

all over sjsu here in sin city +3.5 points

BOL bud

Yep..TX AM was a big payday.  Started betting them @ -14 and @ -13.5, and @ -12 and finally stopped @ -10.5

 bets in one.  Great payoff...

More thoughts on the Cuse....They could've easily beat NW by 21, played tough against USC.  They definitely were not afraid in that game.  They obviously play better in the spotlight and against tougher competition. That showed against SB in a lifeless dome and it's natural against that type of opponent.  LJ is right that a more mobile QB, Shaffer's D definitely has a tougher time against.  I always associate Minn being equivalent to NW, so if that holds true, and SU eliminates the mistakes they could be a strong play this week.  The thing is, I have no idea what to expect out of Minny.  

VegasRoy;

SMallbet07 -

BiggDaddySHY- Good hit! 

slashot11 - Yep, the special teams mistakes gave up 2 big plays to NW. Cuse outyarded NW something like 500 to 300 yards. (Too depressing to look up but it was a huge margin.)
Best case scenario for the USC game was keep it close for 3 quarters and that happened.
OL is strong but the RT, Lou Alexander, is the weak link. He's a living, breathing, moving-before-the-snap-penalty. Probably needs to take a seat...
The book on PTG is he fumbles a lot. He's kept that under control but did fumble one vs SB.  (Maybe 2? I think 1...)
Sales is playing like NFL receivers play in a contract year! He will make some money next year. 3 straight 100 yard games.
At the end of the day we agree. I expect them to put it together this week. Just not willing to put any money on them to put it together...

Cuse....Tyler Wilson cleared to play. Line only moved 2 points...I am on it big like Tx AM last week. HUGE PLAYS THIS WEEK:

LSU- 20.5

ARK -7 &-9

Small bet on USC