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[College Football] Topic: Freak Pics!!! (Week 3) |
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apeterson8809 |
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#76 Posted: 9/14/2012 1:26:40 PM  |
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kahuna57 |
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#77 Posted: 9/14/2012 1:34:46 PM |
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jimmydafreak |
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#78 Posted: 9/14/2012 1:35:53 PM
I said before the season began that Auburn would be a bad football team, and I gave all the reasons I thought that would be the case. Among the many reasons I thought Auburn would struggle is that they don't have a SEC caliber QB on the roster IMO, and that their new offensive coordinator was planning to run a pro-style offense with spread personnel. I went on to predict that Auburn would start the season 1 & 4, and the one win I was giving them credit for (ULM) was not a guarantee. I also said I didn't think Auburn would be bowl eligible at season's end.
Based on my opinion I recommended everyone fade Auburn early and often. In other words, me betting on ULM this week is not a reaction to ULM beating Arkansas, or a reaction to anything else, it is merely me executing my preseason betting strategy which is to fade Auburn. Through the first two weeks of the season that strategy has resulted in an unblemished 5 & 0 record, and from where I sit, I see absolutely no reason to jump off the money train now.
Of course I didn't anticipate ULM beating Arkansas last week, but the fact that they did doesn't make Kiehl Frazier a better QB, nor does it help Auburn's defense tackle better. In other words, regardless of the situational aspect of this bet, they still have to play the football game. And when they do, other than special teams, I struggle to find an advantage for Auburn.
When Auburn's on defense:
ULM' QB Kolton Browning threw 67 passes . . . yes 67 . . . against Arkansas last week. He completed 42 of them for 412 yards against just 1 interception. That works out to a meager 6.1 yards per pass attempt. In other words, it would be an understatement to say that Kolton Browning and the ULM offense specialize in the short passing game. The short passing game puts pressure on the opposing team's linebackers, and requires the linebackers and secondary personnel to make tackles in space. Well unfortunately for Auburn, they have one of the worst group of linebackers in college football, and their tackling has been worse than Les Miles' 2-minute clock management. It goes without saying that ULM's offense versus Auburn's defense is a match up that favors ULM IMO.
When Auburn has the ball:
Don't watch!!! Seriously, it's that bad!!!
Short of eating a bullet, if you were Auburn's offensive coordinator what would you do??? I know what I would do. I would formulate a super simple game plan that Frazier can execute so he can start gaining some rhythm and confidence, because as of now he has neither. I would have a run-heavy game plan that plays to my strength, and helps take some pressure off of Frazier.
So what reasonable inferences can we draw from all of this??? The first is that Auburn will not score anywhere near 35 points in this game. That notion is almost beyond absurd. The second is that ULM should have success moving the ball against Auburn's defense, and that success will probably allow them to score in the 20s. Third, with Auburn having pretty much no chance to score anywhere near 35 points, that means they have equally little chance of covering a 16.5-point spread. And with both teams likely to score in the 20s, I think the chances are pretty good the total stays under 53.5.
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jimmydafreak |
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#79 Posted: 9/14/2012 1:43:01 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by js4u:
Any thoughts on the game tonight? Wash St/UNLV?
None whatsoever. My Wash St/ULM dart board is in the shop right now. 
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jhn_doan40 |
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#80 Posted: 9/14/2012 1:43:38 PM |
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jimmydafreak |
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#81 Posted: 9/14/2012 1:51:46 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by warcameagle56: Jimmy,like your picks...what are your thoughts on Michst vs NotreDame?
I like Michigan State to win the game at home. I'm just not sure if they'll cover 5 points or better. If I had to play the game I would make a value play on the Golden Domers.
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jimmydafreak |
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#82 Posted: 9/14/2012 1:53:14 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by MoneyRoll64:
Yeah DrBoreal leased 31-21 taking SMU and the points even though he said A&M should be favored by 15.5 according to his system. He leaned with SMU based on 143-58 ATS momentum situation and A&M is 34-88-3 ATS in their first road games.
Thanks for the 411. I figured that this had to be a Dr. Bob and RAS line move.
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Bluefin |
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#83 Posted: 9/14/2012 2:09:39 PM  |
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Maydaymalone |
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#84 Posted: 9/14/2012 2:24:38 PM
Wilson ruled out for HOGS game
http://espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/id/8377813/arkansas-razorbacks-qb-tyler-wilson-vs-alabama-crimson-tide-sources-say
I assume this changes that bet?
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jimmydafreak |
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#85 Posted: 9/14/2012 2:28:06 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by ryan8186:
I'm having a hard time with this game. I did watch last years game and it was awful, but UK with noodle are Morgan Newton won by 11. Now they have Max Smith who is a HUGE upgrade from Newton and they are running a no huddle, up tempo offense. On the flip side Western was playing its best ball towards the end of the year last year and held Alabama to respectable yardage (while I'm sure Bama pull the reins back). I'm going to this game, unfortunately, so I will pick a side. I'm probably leaning UK right now, just because I don't Western has enough offense to keep up with UK. Plus UK gets their best RB back this weekend.
I hear what you are saying, and trust me I'm not trying to talk you into playing WKU, or anything else for that matter.
Last year the game was 7-3 deep into the 4th quarter. Kentucky scored late to salt the game away. I had WKU @ something like +17 or +20 so I watch every play of the game. In the second half of the season I was betting on WKU and Arky State almost every week, They were last season's cash cows.
In last year's game I though WKU's defense won the LOS, and I thought their offense held their own in the trenches. I understand that Kentucky is running a new-fangled, no-huddle something or the other, but I'm a pretty firm believer that games are won and lost at the point of attack, and I think WKU will win that battle on both sides of the ball. That's why I think WKU will cover the spread, and have a great shot to win the game outright.
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abizzo24 |
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#86 Posted: 9/14/2012 2:29:13 PM |
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jimmydafreak |
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#87 Posted: 9/14/2012 2:36:58 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by skig8tr:
Jimmy: What is ur take on Neb/Ark sy o/u. Ski
I honestly don't know. I think it would be safe to assume that Nebraska will score plenty against Arky State. The question is how much success will Malzahn have against the Nebraska defense??? I'm guessing Arky State will probably have to score in the 20-30 range to push the total over. So it comes down to how confident are you in that happening. I honestly don't know.
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fumble_rooskie |
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#88 Posted: 9/14/2012 2:42:52 PM Florida, will not, I REPEAT will not win the SEC East. Georgia has the easiest schedule in the east, and will punish Florida. You heard it here, I feel safer about my Kentucky play now. BUT BOL 2 you Freak no hard feelings or disrepect. |
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TRAIN69 |
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#89 Posted: 9/14/2012 2:44:59 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by Bluefin: Freak any concern of the BYU line movement it open at 4.5 went to 4 now 3.5.. ML around -170. with at 70% consensus on BYU...smells a little fishy to me.I played them early at -4.5
BYU opened at +1
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jimmydafreak |
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#90 Posted: 9/14/2012 2:45:04 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by abizzo24:
Jimmy, can you give us some insight into NM State pick? on paper MN State doesn't look that great, new QB, new OC. UTEP seems to be improved...
Many people don't know that this game is a huge rivalry . . . huge at least to the extent that anything having to do with UTEP & New Mexico State football can be described as such.
See post #32 . . . and yes I know Colorado State are the Rams not the Buffalos. 
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thekeynone |
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#91 Posted: 9/14/2012 2:51:36 PM Nice work Freak!!!! I tailed you last week and made some cheese. 
What are your thoughts on tonight's game - Wassu & UNLV.
Total is at 55.5 and leaning on the under (1st half 27.5 under as per your rules ) |
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TRAIN69 |
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#92 Posted: 9/14/2012 2:56:26 PM 
Your Bet has been Placed
SelectionPrice
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UL Monroe at Auburn (Alternate Over/Under 5)
Under
+51.5
+110
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Boston Coll at Northwestern (Alternate Over/Under 12)
Over
+56.0
+110
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Texas A+M at SMU (Alternate Spread 4)
Texas A+M
-13.5
+115
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Alabama at Arkansas (Alternate Over/Under 5)
Under
+52.0
+110
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Miami Ohio at Boise St (Alternate Spread 12)
Boise St
-23.0
+110
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TCU at Kansas (Alternate Spread 3)
TCU
-23.5
+120
Bet Type:
Round Robin:
All 4x combinations (15 bets)
All 5x combinations (6 bets)
6x combination (1 bet)
Amount per Bet:
$4.50
Number of Bets:
22
Total Bet Amount:
$99.00
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jimmydafreak |
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#93 Posted: 9/14/2012 2:57:35 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by kroch: Freak- any general thoughts on Ole Miss? I've been reading a lot, but just can't get a feel on this team other than they are really small upfront and we should be able to run the ball 50 times on them with Brown/Bergeron. Wallace seems semi-competent but hasn't seen a real defense. Lean under here as as I think Wallace is going to get thumped hard- first half under probably even better with Ash tentative in the first quarter. I don't trust Ash to lay 10 points in SEC-land quite yet and Ole Miss should be jacked for first real home game opponent.
I actually hope this game is close as I believe we are going to destroy OSU in two weeks and will get much better line value.
If I had to play a side, I would play Tejas on talent and home field advantage alone. Ole Miss is still a bit of enigma to me. I really don't know what to expect from them.
I have looked at the total, and I do like the under quite a bit. I would probably jump on UNDER 26 1st Half.
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jimmydafreak |
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#94 Posted: 9/14/2012 2:58:42 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by themog: GL this week Jimmy.
Aggie Homer here, but I'm huge on the Ags this weekend and think we destroy SMU. My biggest bet since betting Arkansas in 2009 vs. the Ags. SMU is complete trash this year with Garret Garbage at QB. They were avg. 4.21 Yards Per Play vs. Baylor up until them getting down 45-3 before getting garbage time yards to make the box score look better. Baylor ran for 6.9 YPC I believe. The Ags should be able to hand it off every play and cover. Then, they put up a whopping 37 plays for 118 in the first half vs. SFA last week. Line had something like 19 carries for 60 yards. They lost their entire O Line and it shows big time. Then throw in the fact that GG is still one of the worst QB's in the country and they are in for an epic beatdown Saturday @ 230.
GL
I agree wholeheartedly!!!
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TRAIN69 |
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#95 Posted: 9/14/2012 3:01:50 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by jimmydafreak: If I had to play a side, I would play Tejas on talent and home field advantage alone. Ole Miss is still a bit of enigma to me. I really don't know what to expect from them.
I have looked at the total, and I do like the under quite a bit. I would probably jump on UNDER 26 1st Half.
Games @ Ole Miss isnt it?
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blowoutgm |
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#96 Posted: 9/14/2012 3:03:27 PM
I like most of your picks- We have a few of the same picks. I am off of Auburn and may just play the Auburn TT under. Will wait until game time to bet that one. Good luck this week!!!
Mizzo is calling out to me as well as the line has dropped to -3.5. I think Ariz. St. is overrated and their coach is a major douchebag! |
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jimmydafreak |
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#97 Posted: 9/14/2012 3:04:50 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by Roc55996677:
Freak, i'm new to this but been following your picks. Awesome job man keep it up. I Like Boise St. against miami Oh. what your take on that and do you think Peterson going to run the score up on opening day.
I really don't have a strong opinion on this game. Too many unanswered questions on the Boise side for me. I guess if I had to bet the game I would go Boise based on Peterson and Boise's reputation at home alone, but honestly I have no clue.
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jimmydafreak |
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#98 Posted: 9/14/2012 3:07:25 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by kroch: I should add- the entire world is on Tenny in this game. No trendier play out there. Gonna pass just like you.
Will tail you on W. Kentucky- go Hilltoppers!
Yeah, the Vols are a huge public play. I understand the logic behind the play, but I really can't pull the trigger either way.
 Hilltoppers!!!
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jimmydafreak |
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#99 Posted: 9/14/2012 3:08:51 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by traderjoe13:
Jimmy much respect I love reading your threads, I was just curious if you were worried about this being hangover spots for ULM and WKU, both are playing after pretty big games and they are college kids. I know you did you research so id like to know your opinion on it
I have no hangover concerns for WKU, but I do for ULM. See post #71.
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jimmydafreak |
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#100 Posted: 9/14/2012 3:11:07 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by kahuna57:
What if Bama covers 35 but Arky QB throws 3 pick6s? Lol. I'm gonna be on that Arky TT though.
Saban will show as much or as little as he needs to on offense. If the defense scores a few times, then the pendulum swings to the "showing less" side. Regardless, Alabama is not going to score in the 50s.
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