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[College Football] Topic: The nation's hottest...and coldest teams.... |
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bookieassassin |
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#1 Posted: 9/11/2012 11:12:52 PM
*simply looking at how far off the oddsmakers have been..........theoretically
meaning not an absolute science...but better used
to indicate or suggest......a mistake > that can
give us an edge
*all have played at least 2 games....and are 2-0 ATS or 0-2 ATS
*keeping in mind you have to factor in the other team also when drawing conclusions
eg. San Diego St has COVERED their 2 games by 35 points...or 17.5 pts/g.........
While Houston has MISSED the cover by only 57 points...or 28.5/g...............
sure I missed a couple...most are there
POSITIVE
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35 San Diego St
33 Purdue
31 Texas Tech
SJose St
28 Utah St
Miss St
23 Iowa St
21 Fresno
UCF
20 UCLA
19 ULA
16 UConn
13 Ole Miss
12 WKU
11 N Ill
Ga Tech
10 Ball St
Ohio
9 Toledo
NEGATIVE
57 Houston
54 Ark
50 Pitt
45 Wisky
41 UMass
38 FIU
37 CMIch
35 Col
31 Cal
OREGON
29 MICHIGAN
EMIch
24 Rutgers
23 MIa,O
21 Washington
Wazzu
20 Va Tech
Auburn
19 S Ala
16 USC
15 Kansas
13 Iowa
11 NC St
9 Utah
"SO.....YOU'RE TELLING ME ALL I HAVE TO DO IS BET UCLA (+10/GAME).....VS HOUSTON (-28.5/G) ??
*er.......no.....more like if you happen to like Houston here.......better tap (no maybe slam) on the brakes and re-evaluate things.......or if on the fence...strongly consider the Bruins.....
Few things to consider....
*Will the trend continue?....or reverse itself week 3?
*Will the oddsmakers catch-up? > and make an accurate adjustment?.....or over-adjust? .....
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WahooS |
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#2 Posted: 9/11/2012 11:47:19 PM
I'm obviously insane
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Zoot |
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#3 Posted: 9/12/2012 12:01:23 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by WahooS:
I bet Houston +17.5
I'm obviously insane
Im with you WahooS 
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MGD |
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#4 Posted: 9/12/2012 12:05:51 AM |
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WISEGUY36 |
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#5 Posted: 9/12/2012 12:09:48 AM
What do you think of my 3 team Round Robin ?
1. Kansas State -27 1/2
2. UCLA - 15 1/2
3. Tex. Tech - 35
P.S. Holbrook is listed as Doubtful for the TXT game.
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bookieassassin |
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#6 Posted: 9/12/2012 12:13:43 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by WahooS:
I bet Houston +17.5
I'm obviously insane
would lean that way myself.......
*good spot for Houston.....with a (probable) over adjustment for BOTH....giving us an inflated line....week or two ago woulda been closer to TD or so
since the end of last year......
according to Vegas....
Cougs are about 21 points worse....
UCLA about 10 points better
Guess we'll see if they are right....looks extreme to me
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LonghornHoosier |
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#7 Posted: 9/12/2012 12:21:10 AM |
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WISEGUY36 |
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#8 Posted: 9/12/2012 12:27:56 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by LonghornHoosier:
wiseguy - i am looking at the tech game too. the game is at night... tech is always tough at night. if nm starting QB out, it should be a romp...
That's what I think as well.NM's backup is suspended and will
not play as well.I think it's a good play,and you can probably
get it at -33 now.
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BoiseState25 |
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#9 Posted: 9/12/2012 12:30:56 AM |
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bookieassassin |
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#10 Posted: 9/12/2012 12:38:49 AM
1. Kansas State -27 1/2
*KSU in Miami / OU sandwich.......and might have little interest in running it up on N Texas....should rest starters some...especially Klein.....McCarney recall played vs Snyder at Iowa St....and did well it seems
2. UCLA - 15 1/2
*too much said already......wouldn't do it myself....but either side makes sense really
3. Tex. Tech - 35
*this one RRaiders have all edges....off 2 scrimmages with a bye on deck....Lobos off physical game with Texas...with their rival on deck?.....night game too ......Lobos should get murdered.....
*what I like about this one?.....this will be Tech's biggest game the entire month..........WTF.....
....
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WISEGUY36 |
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#11 Posted: 9/12/2012 12:40:27 AM
(or negative ) teams playing FCS opponents as an integral part of
their early schedule.
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WISEGUY36 |
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#12 Posted: 9/12/2012 1:18:42 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by bookieassassin: *First...no surprise at all if it all hit..... 1. Kansas State -27 1/2 *KSU in Miami / OU sandwich.......and might have little interest in running it up on N Texas....should rest starters some...especially Klein.....McCarney recall played vs Snyder at Iowa St....and did well it seems 2. UCLA - 15 1/2 *too much said already......wouldn't do it myself....but either side makes sense really 3. Tex. Tech - 35 *this one RRaiders have all edges....off 2 scrimmages with a bye on deck....Lobos off physical game with Texas...with their rival on deck?.....night game too ......Lobos should get murdered..... *what I like about this one?.....this will be Tech's biggest game the entire month..........WTF..... ....
They do this every year,then "choke " in conference play. 
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The_WORM |
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#13 Posted: 9/12/2012 1:28:36 AM
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bookieassassin |
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#14 Posted: 9/12/2012 1:30:15 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:
Hey Bookie, How much skew is in there due to positive teams
(or negative ) teams playing FCS opponents as an integral part of
their early schedule.
SOS doesn't make a ton of difference here....
because we're talking about a team's performance relative to Vegas' expectations anyway...but since such a crapshoot....yeah it's tough to put much weight into ANYTHING regarding those games
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shark_apreza |
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#15 Posted: 9/12/2012 1:34:16 AM  |
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Tmoney35 |
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#16 Posted: 9/12/2012 6:51:04 AM |
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bookieassassin |
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#17 Posted: 9/12/2012 7:33:15 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by Tmoney35:
Bookie are those 3 plays you'll be playing?
naw that was in response to WiseGuy's question....
*he's taking the HOT teams...vs a WEAK opponent
BTW....a pretty good way to do it.....I'm getting old as dirt so approach things with (too much) caution maybe....
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WISEGUY36 |
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#18 Posted: 9/12/2012 8:40:41 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by bookieassassin: naw that was in response to WiseGuy's question.... *he's taking the HOT teams...vs a WEAK opponent BTW....a pretty good way to do it... ..I'm getting old as dirt so approach things with (too much) caution maybe.... |
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WISEGUY36 |
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#19 Posted: 9/12/2012 8:56:12 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by bookieassassin: naw that was in response to WiseGuy's question.... *he's taking the HOT teams...vs a WEAK opponent BTW....a pretty good way to do it..... I'm getting old as dirt so approach things with (too much) caution maybe....
FYI, I have been betting football since before dirt
was discovered. That must make me real old.
I'm pretty conservative in my handicapping style
as well.These games just jumped out at me this
week.
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WISEGUY36 |
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#20 Posted: 9/12/2012 9:08:28 AM
and then struggle in conference,as will UCLA,and K State.They
will all revert to the mean in pointspread and performance. They
will also take lesser teams' Too Lightly' at times,so be careful
with this.
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bookieassassin |
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#21 Posted: 9/12/2012 10:02:42 AM
but does bring up an interesting topic....the constant Covers tug-of-war between which way is best...
*and the dreaded sharp vs square stuff
to guys new to wagering here....it's gotta be confusing
* basic issue is....bet the TEAM?....or the NUMBER?
Strong majority of guys here bet the team....a select few bet the number ....both laugh at each other....
*some like me are in between somewhere....and therefore laugh at both.......
A 'numbers' card maybe.......essentially going against a strong public support .....taking advantage of the resulting line value
SMU...N Texas...Arkansas...Houston...New Mexico
*which many here would respond....HAHA IDIOT!....YOU'RE GONNA GET KILLED!!!! ....> then quietly the card goes 3-2 or 4-1
A 'team' card maybe.....playing the strong team vs the weaker team.....without much regard to what the number is......(some make a lot of money this way)
Bama...UCLA...Okie St...Ohio St...Wisky
*which the 'numbers' guys would laugh their butt off....SQUARE behind IDIOT!.....HOW LONG HAVE YOU BEEN BETTING??..... YOU DON'T KNOW WTF YOU'RE DOING!!!!!!......then same result..
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WISEGUY36 |
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#22 Posted: 9/12/2012 10:23:36 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by bookieassassin: naw man...wasn't inferring that style was necessarily yours....or that method is amateurish but does bring up an interesting topic....the constant Covers tug-of-war between which way is best... *and the dreaded sharp vs square stuff to guys new to wagering here....it's gotta be confusing * basic issue is....bet the TEAM?....or the NUMBER? Strong majority of guys here bet the team....a select few bet the number ....both laugh at each other.... *some like me are in between somewhere....and therefore laugh at both....... A 'numbers' card maybe.......essentially going against a strong public support .....taking advantage of the resulting line value SMU...N Texas...Arkansas...Houston...New Mexico *which many here would respond....HAHA IDIOT!....YOU'RE GONNA GET KILLED!!!! ....> then quietly the card goes 3-2 or 4-1 A 'team' card maybe.....playing the strong team vs the weaker team.....without much regard to what the number is......(some make a lot of money this way) Bama...UCLA...Okie St...Ohio St...Wisky *which the 'numbers' guys would laugh their butt off....SQUARE behind IDIOT!.....HOW LONG HAVE YOU BEEN BETTING??..... YOU DON'T KNOW WTF YOU'RE DOING!!!!!!......then same result..
Bookie, Good stuff,Bud. This is a great topic as we go deeper into
the season.I firmly believe that a lot of people who wager,have a lot
of trouble determining "line value", or they fall in love with a team and ride em till it breaks their heart or their bankroll.
Every week, I'm prepared to go for or against any team depending
on what the # happens to be.I think If I have done my homework
and part of that is establishing a # that represents fair value, it
makes it easier to say yes or no to an individual play, and
possibly save me from making a mistake.
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bookieassassin |
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#23 Posted: 9/12/2012 10:35:51 AM
*according to Sagarin.....buddy sent me this ....I don't use Sagarin.....he does and usually makes cash.....a lot
2nd # is what the line SHOULD be....according to his ratings
CURRENT SHOULD BE
Penn St -5 PSU -15
N Ill -3 N Ill -23
FSU-27 FSU-15'
A&M -13 A&M -1'
Mizzou -6' ASU -19 wtf
*maybe recheck this one
Boise -20' Boise -34
LT -20' LT -5
Toledo -3' Tol -16
Wisky -14' Wisky -4
UCF -17' UCF -30
Okie St -22' OSU-9'
Auburn -16' Aub-5'
*last week the system was 4-0 supposedly...using the games with the largest variances from the spread
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bookieassassin |
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#24 Posted: 9/12/2012 10:45:03 AM
Penn St -3
Michigan -8
Ducks -22
UConn -5'
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TRAIN69 |
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#25 Posted: 9/12/2012 11:09:31 AM
BA
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