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Author: [College Football] Topic: The nation's hottest...and coldest teams....
bookieassassin send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: BookMaker |
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#1
Posted: 9/11/2012 11:12:52 PM
Measured by their AFS numbers....(AWAY from the spread)
     *simply looking at how far off the oddsmakers have been..........theoretically
    meaning not an absolute science...but better used
    to indicate or suggest......a mistake > that can
     give us an edge

    *all have played at least 2 games....and are 2-0 ATS or 0-2 ATS

     *keeping in mind you have to factor in the other team also when drawing conclusions

eg.   San Diego St has COVERED their 2 games by 35 points...or 17.5 pts/g.........

While Houston has MISSED the cover by only 57 points...or 28.5/g...............

sure I missed a couple...most are there

POSITIVE

                           -
35  San Diego St                 
33  Purdue               
31  Texas Tech
      SJose St
28  Utah St
      Miss St
23  Iowa St
21  Fresno
      UCF
20  UCLA
19  ULA
16  UConn
13  Ole Miss
12  WKU
11  N Ill
     Ga Tech
10  Ball St
     Ohio
9   Toledo

NEGATIVE


57  Houston
54  Ark
50  Pitt
45  Wisky
41  UMass
38  FIU
37  CMIch
35  Col
31  Cal
      OREGON
29  MICHIGAN
      EMIch
24  Rutgers
23  MIa,O
21  Washington
      Wazzu
20  Va Tech
      Auburn
19  S Ala
16  USC
15  Kansas
13  Iowa
11  NC St
9   Utah
       

     

"SO.....YOU'RE TELLING ME ALL I HAVE TO DO IS BET UCLA (+10/GAME).....VS HOUSTON (-28.5/G) ??
      *er.......no.....more like if you happen to like Houston here.......better tap (no maybe slam) on the brakes and re-evaluate things.......or if on the fence...strongly consider the Bruins.....

Few things to consider....
  *Will the trend continue?....or reverse itself week 3?
  *Will the oddsmakers catch-up? > and make an    accurate adjustment?.....or over-adjust?   .....




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#2
Posted: 9/11/2012 11:47:19 PM
I bet Houston +17.5

I'm obviously insane

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#3
Posted: 9/12/2012 12:01:23 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by WahooS:

I bet Houston +17.5

I'm obviously insane


Im with you WahooS
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#4
Posted: 9/12/2012 12:05:51 AM
Wahoo you crazy cat...  I am not with you on that move but I like your sack!!  Could be a let down spot for Bruins, I just can't get off of the thinking that Keenum was their Luck if you know what I mean.  GL with your plays and great info Bookiekiller...  
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#5
Posted: 9/12/2012 12:09:48 AM
Hey Bookie, Did I convert you into a Believer ( on UCLA ) ????

What do you think of my 3 team Round Robin ?

1. Kansas State   -27 1/2
2. UCLA  - 15 1/2
3. Tex. Tech   - 35

P.S. Holbrook is listed as Doubtful for the TXT game.

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#6
Posted: 9/12/2012 12:13:43 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by WahooS:

I bet Houston +17.5

I'm obviously insane



would lean that way myself.......
    *good spot for Houston.....with a (probable) over adjustment for BOTH....giving us an inflated line....week or two ago woulda been closer to TD or so

since the end of last year......
according to Vegas....
Cougs are about 21 points worse....
UCLA about 10 points better

Guess we'll see if they are right....looks extreme to me
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#7
Posted: 9/12/2012 12:21:10 AM
wiseguy - i am looking at the tech game too.  the game is at night... tech is always tough at night.  if nm starting QB out, it should be a romp...
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#8
Posted: 9/12/2012 12:27:56 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by LonghornHoosier:

wiseguy - i am looking at the tech game too.  the game is at night... tech is always tough at night.  if nm starting QB out, it should be a romp...



That's what I think as well.NM's backup is suspended and will
not play as well.I think it's a good play,and you can probably
get it at -33 now.
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#9
Posted: 9/12/2012 12:30:56 AM
Good info, and a great way to look at the past 2 weeks results.
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#10
Posted: 9/12/2012 12:38:49 AM
*First...no surprise at all if it all hit.....

1. Kansas State   -27 1/2
   *KSU in Miami / OU sandwich.......and might have little interest in running it up on N Texas....should rest starters some...especially Klein.....McCarney recall played vs Snyder at Iowa St....and did well it seems   

2. UCLA  - 15 1/2
    *too much said already......wouldn't do it myself....but either side makes sense really
 
3. Tex. Tech   - 35
     *this one RRaiders have all edges....off 2 scrimmages with a bye on deck....Lobos off physical game with Texas...with their rival on deck?.....night game too ......Lobos should get murdered.....
   *what I like about this one?.....this will be Tech's biggest game the entire month..........WTF.....

....
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#11
Posted: 9/12/2012 12:40:27 AM
Hey Bookie, How much skew is in there due to positive teams
(or negative ) teams playing FCS opponents as an integral part of
their early schedule.
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#12
Posted: 9/12/2012 1:18:42 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by bookieassassin:

*First...no surprise at all if it all hit.....

1. Kansas State   -27 1/2
   *KSU in Miami / OU sandwich.......and might have little interest in running it up on N Texas....should rest starters some...especially Klein.....McCarney recall played vs Snyder at Iowa St....and did well it seems   

2. UCLA  - 15 1/2
    *too much said already......wouldn't do it myself....but either side makes sense really
 
3. Tex. Tech   - 35
     *this one RRaiders have all edges....off 2 scrimmages with a bye on deck....Lobos off physical game with Texas...with their rival on deck?.....night game too ......Lobos should get murdered.....
   *what I like about this one?.....this will be Tech's biggest game the entire month..........WTF.....

....


They do this every year,then "choke " in conference play. 
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#13
Posted: 9/12/2012 1:28:36 AM
Gonna follow like the new AFS
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#14
Posted: 9/12/2012 1:30:15 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:

Hey Bookie, How much skew is in there due to positive teams
(or negative ) teams playing FCS opponents as an integral part of
their early schedule.


SOS doesn't make a ton of difference here....
because we're talking about a team's performance relative to Vegas' expectations anyway...but since such a crapshoot....yeah it's tough to put much weight into ANYTHING regarding those games 
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#15
Posted: 9/12/2012 1:34:16 AM
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#16
Posted: 9/12/2012 6:51:04 AM
Bookie are those 3 plays you'll be playing?
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#17
Posted: 9/12/2012 7:33:15 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Tmoney35:

Bookie are those 3 plays you'll be playing?


naw that was in response to WiseGuy's question....
    *he's taking the HOT teams...vs a WEAK opponent

BTW....a pretty good way to do it.....I'm getting old as dirt so approach things with (too much) caution maybe....
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#18
Posted: 9/12/2012 8:40:41 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by bookieassassin:



naw that was in response to WiseGuy's question....
    *he's taking the HOT teams...vs a WEAK opponent

BTW....a pretty good way to do it.....I'm getting old as dirt so approach things with (too much) caution maybe....
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#19
Posted: 9/12/2012 8:56:12 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by bookieassassin:



naw that was in response to WiseGuy's question....
    *he's taking the HOT teams...vs a WEAK opponent

BTW....a pretty good way to do it.....I'm getting old as dirt so approach things with (too much) caution maybe....




FYI, I have been betting football since before dirt
was discovered. That must make me real old.
I'm pretty conservative in my handicapping style
as well.These games just jumped out at me this
week.


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#20
Posted: 9/12/2012 9:08:28 AM
BTW, To my earlier point. Texas Tech will beat up on these teams
and then struggle in conference,as will UCLA,and K State.They
will all revert to the mean in pointspread and performance. They
will also take lesser teams' Too Lightly' at times,so be careful
with this.
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#21
Posted: 9/12/2012 10:02:42 AM
naw man...wasn't inferring that style was necessarily yours....or that method is amateurish

but does bring up an interesting topic....the constant Covers tug-of-war between which way is best...
      *and the dreaded sharp vs square stuff

to guys new to wagering here....it's gotta be confusing
                            
* basic issue is....bet the TEAM?....or the NUMBER?

Strong majority of guys here bet the team....a select  few bet the number ....both laugh at each other....
       *some like me are in between somewhere....and therefore laugh at both.......

A 'numbers' card maybe.......essentially going against a strong public support .....taking advantage of the resulting line value

SMU...N Texas...Arkansas...Houston...New Mexico
     *which many here would respond....HAHA IDIOT!....YOU'RE GONNA GET KILLED!!!! ....> then quietly the card goes 3-2 or 4-1

A 'team' card maybe.....playing the strong team vs the weaker team.....without much regard to what the number is......(some make a lot of money this way)
 
Bama...UCLA...Okie St...Ohio St...Wisky
    *which the 'numbers' guys would laugh their butt off....SQUARE behind IDIOT!.....HOW LONG HAVE YOU BEEN BETTING??..... YOU DON'T KNOW WTF YOU'RE DOING!!!!!!......then same result.. 

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#22
Posted: 9/12/2012 10:23:36 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by bookieassassin:

naw man...wasn't inferring that style was necessarily yours....or that method is amateurish

but does bring up an interesting topic....the constant Covers tug-of-war between which way is best...
      *and the dreaded sharp vs square stuff

to guys new to wagering here....it's gotta be confusing
                            
* basic issue is....bet the TEAM?....or the NUMBER?

Strong majority of guys here bet the team....a select  few bet the number ....both laugh at each other....
       *some like me are in between somewhere....and therefore laugh at both.......

A 'numbers' card maybe.......essentially going against a strong public support .....taking advantage of the resulting line value

SMU...N Texas...Arkansas...Houston...New Mexico
     *which many here would respond....HAHA IDIOT!....YOU'RE GONNA GET KILLED!!!! ....> then quietly the card goes 3-2 or 4-1

A 'team' card maybe.....playing the strong team vs the weaker team.....without much regard to what the number is......(some make a lot of money this way)
 
Bama...UCLA...Okie St...Ohio St...Wisky
    *which the 'numbers' guys would laugh their butt off....SQUARE behind IDIOT!.....HOW LONG HAVE YOU BEEN BETTING??..... YOU DON'T KNOW WTF YOU'RE DOING!!!!!!......then same result.. 



Bookie, Good stuff,Bud. This is a great topic as we go deeper into
the season.I firmly believe that a lot of people who wager,have a lot
of trouble determining "line value", or they fall in love with a team and ride em till it breaks their heart or their bankroll.
Every week, I'm prepared to go for  or against any team depending
on what the # happens to be.I think If I have done my homework
and part of that is establishing a # that represents fair value, it
makes it easier to say yes or no to an individual play, and
possibly save me from making a mistake.



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#23
Posted: 9/12/2012 10:35:51 AM
BTW....here are a few games that the line is WAY OFF
    *according to Sagarin.....buddy sent me this ....I don't use Sagarin.....he does and usually makes cash.....a lot

2nd # is what the line SHOULD be....according to his ratings

CURRENT          SHOULD BE

Penn St -5          PSU -15
N Ill -3                 N Ill -23
FSU-27              FSU-15'
A&M -13             A&M -1'
Mizzou -6'            ASU -19 wtf
    *maybe recheck this one
Boise -20'            Boise -34
LT -20'                  LT -5
Toledo -3'              Tol -16
Wisky -14'             Wisky -4
UCF -17'              UCF -30
Okie St -22'          OSU-9'
Auburn -16'            Aub-5'

*last week the system was 4-0 supposedly...using the games with the largest variances from the spread
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#24
Posted: 9/12/2012 10:45:03 AM
last week his numbers said....
Penn St  -3
Michigan  -8  
Ducks   -22
UConn   -5'
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#25
Posted: 9/12/2012 11:09:31 AM
One of covers best assets.



BA
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