LOUIS IV's FRIDAY NIGHT NCAA FOOTBALL PICK

NCAA Football Record 3-3 -0.9 units

What do we know and what is the line telling us:
* Line opened at Utah -7 and total at 53
* Roughly 60% of the public like the Utah squad yet the line is moving the other way
* Public perception on the o/u is deadlocked at 50%, which tells me some wiseguys bet some decent coin on the under tonight to drop it down almost 3 points since it originated
* PAC 12 competition where Utah plays and Western Athletic Conference where Utah State plays are night and day. PAC 12 currently has three teams in top 25. Utah is not one but says something about caliber of teams.
*Last season UTAH and UTAH STATE both played BYU. On the road UTAH went into BYU and beat the piss out of them 54-10. On the other hand UTAH STATE went there and lost 27-24. This tells me UTAH isn't word about going on the road an whipping ass. This also gives me a sense of the caliber of team UTAH is versus UTAH STATE
* Utah also went on the road and beat PITT, Arizona and Washington State. Lost on the road to USC and California
* Both teams won easily in their openers
*Utah State lost at home last year to a good La Tech team and Colorado State. La Tech beat them by 7, same spread as tonight
* Games have not even been close the last several meetings between two regardless of location.
* Notice the spreads on the games in last 6 or 7 contsts, much different then today. The lowest was 18 points. Says something about how far Utah State has come.
* Notice also that when the games have been at Utah State they seem to beat the living piss out of them and when they are in Utah the games are more competitive. Utah State lost 58-10, 48-0 and 48-6 in the lat three games at home.
* Bottomline - Utah seems to get up for this matchup when its in Utah States house. I know personnel has changed but the culture is probably the same and Utah State knows this game has not been kind to them.

UTAH -7    3.3/3
Best of luck

GL Louis 

Utah State's coach being the former defensive coordinator for Utah might have something to do with the line being where it is too.

KickinA - good point, but I'm sure Utah has thought of that as well. 

Beating Pitt, Zona, and Wazzou on the road, even last year, is nothing to write home about. You have to base predictions on this year's talent anyway. Utah does have alot coming back though. Like most 1 game nights, its a coin flip.

ssurfer - use whatever basis you want for your play, I use what I want for mine.  The team changes here and there but ist not like its a completely different team this year from last.  Yep, its a flip.  This is where my flip landed though

Gonna have to respectfully disagree with your analysis. Utah have dominated this "rivalry" in recent years but St. has managed to cover 4 of the last 10 with one push. Yes St. managed to lose to the other "rivalry" of Utah CFB, but again, covered the BYU spread easily. Your  bottom line that "Utes get up for this game" needs to also be considered. Utah has their true rivalry next week with BYU, because like you said, they shit on St. year in and year out. Meanwhile, to St. this is the true rivalry...ESPN crew coming to a 25,000 person stadium on Fri night. So this may be considered a classic look-ahead spot for Utah, meanwhile St., who also came out dominate to open the season, is probably more focused on this game. I'm not sure if 7 is the right number, but I expect it to be a close game either way. BOL 

right on, nothing on the under?

Utah

kJ - that's cool, good luck on the play.  Its gamblin', hitting 60% of your plays is pretty good.  So even if Im good I will still lose 40% of the time, this could be one of them

 

HOFDEG - I'm not playing the total, one bet for this game.  I dont need two plays on such a big bet game being the only game of the evening. 

LMAO - I lost it when I read, "...beat the piss out of them..."



Agreed Louis.
I've locked in UTAH -7

BOLbud

Totally agree Big Lou!  I also think the line partially stems from everyone remembering Utah St almost beating Auburn last year.  This is an important game to both squads and the better team wins here by better than the spread of 7; feels like a Utes 35ish - State 23ish sort of game to me  Nice write up buddy and GL as always!!  BTW, I am glad to see folks backing State here... 

Both coaches being friends and this being more a tune up game for the Utes tells me they won't open the playbook much in preparation for BYU next week leads me to believe this should be a close tightly contested game. At the same time, this game means much more for the Aggies. I see them being in this game all the way through. (Provided they don't make too many boneheaded plays and that's a big IF, unlike their last game).

Utah big advantage on defense, especially on the D-line. Utah St. has the slight advantage on offense (better big playmaking capability), plus the HF so we'll see.

My lean is definitely with the Aggies and the UNDER. GL guys.

34-17 Utah 

Bol buddy

Louis_IV...Hope you have a great weekend...

BOL L4 im on the Utes laying the chalk as well 

I agree Louis. BOL man

Line movements dont mean too much of shit. The ND line last week moved from 17 to 14 and they blew them out. THe UMASS  Uconn line moved from 24.5 to 21 and everybody loved UMASS and they got shut out, the Baylor SMU line went from 13.5 to 8 and Baylor blew them out. Oddsmakers arent God  dont be scared of line movements

it means something......it should not be ignored.  Its not a DEFINITE indicator of the winner.  We will see.